Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

It will be good through the end of April. If you have a live account, you should use the 10 digit account number and password you use to login to the FX Trading Station II to login to DailyFX Plus.

Cheers,

-Jason

A/U

10 hrs to go till RBA rates statement.
I drew this ascending triangle 5-6 hrs ago and it's still valid, a terminal thrust might end up at 61% at .9266 or 100% at .9300, below S at .9180 will make the pattern invalidated.

Mmmm, pretty tame day today.

SSI: Net Open Interest on USDCAD Rises 14% as Retail Traders Increase Their Fight Against Parity
Monday, 05 Apr 2010 18:43 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 4.23 as nearly 81% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.41 as 77% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 18.9% higher than yesterday and 57.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.0% lower than yesterday and 26.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 13.7% stronger than yesterday and 13.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.26 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.23 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.0% higher than yesterday and 3.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 11.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.4% stronger than yesterday and 3.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.26 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.26 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.3% higher than yesterday and 22.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.3% higher than yesterday and 37.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.3% stronger than yesterday and 3.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.32 as nearly 57% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.63 as 62% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 16.8% higher than yesterday and 18.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.5% lower than yesterday and 6.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.0% stronger than yesterday and 1.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at -1.22 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.60 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 25.0% higher than yesterday and 5.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.5% lower than yesterday and 10.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.8% stronger than yesterday and 12.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY gains.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.95 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.03 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.1% higher than yesterday and 54.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.3% higher than yesterday and 3.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.5% stronger than yesterday and 38.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.63 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.66 as 62% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.5% higher than yesterday and 5.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.7% higher than yesterday and 18.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.4% stronger than yesterday and 1.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.06 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.05 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 15.1% higher than yesterday and 7.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.5% higher than yesterday and 0.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.1% stronger than yesterday and 0.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

AUD struggling to break .9220. Just be very careful with this wedgie, it's possible it could spike deeply in both directions just prior to news, as in take out stops below .9190 and clip buy orders above .9225, neither of which may follow through. A classic struggle between fear and greed.

Watch the EUR/AUD cross. This is a key driver of PA on AU. It's looking like market may be thinking we have a triple bottom around here at 1.4620. But that too could have the bottom fall out of it close to news, or it may spike up. When market goes short, this cross is very nice trading (long). It has to collect the prize for oversold at present, so market will be watching this closely for buy opportunities, very volatile and very lucrative when market runs short. Check the spread on this during news however, it can be phenomenally huge.

Don't like the look of UJ either right now - like it wants to hug safety and head south.

Yes, I remember it well - sucking on that drawdown. I don't know how much of a pullback we are going to get. Keep in mind that Robert Prechter reckons the indices are going to have a sizeable correction between now and May but just in case he is wrong (Shahab follows his stuff) then I reckon 83.50/70 area might be good although I'd like to see my charts if or when we reach there.

G'day mate,

I only started to use my resource at one of the major 4 banks after that rate hike.

We could be wrong today but generally he's been spot on.

The resource was dead set sure about a hike earlier last week and now (s)he leaning towards no-hike but expecting it to be a very close decision.

Check my february rate post on AUD thread. I wrote at about 2.23 pm that rates were on hold. the decisions usually comes out at 2.30 pm...

Cheers

I still hold my E/U short from 1.3488 but I'll add to it at
1.3460/90 SL=1.3550 TP=1.33 & 1.30

----------------------------------------------------------------------
1.59 can be the target this month as long as the price holds above 1.5400 to achieve a momentom bias to the upside.
I can't accurate at the moment to the max price (58 or 59 ) if 54 breaks above but its important to understand that these numbers (58 or 59 ) are
very important because if its not going to break to above it then 1.35-1.36 is the long term target .

Like I said, Glenn Stevens said he would hike and he did. He continues his hawkish tone based on the outlook. Might be time to think about getting with the program me thinks

reminds me of when E/U was at 1.60 , and they kept raising rates, and then big fall..... Glenn can keep raising rates to keep A/U at .92-.93, but eventually he's gonna have to stop raising rates, which will bring upon the fall.... He knows A/U isn't worth more than .60 Fair Value

Well J.P. Morgan seem to think fair value is at 0.8800. I think you're gonna have to shelve your 0.60 target for a while and like M.A.C.Doug said, get with the program

https://mm.jpmorgan.com/stp/t/c.do?i...pdf*h_-3svpri0

SSI not out yet this morning but if there are any significant changes, I'll post it. Daily Market Strategy attached. Good trades

patience

wondering why a bank publishes its trades (as good as)

Chase can lose as much money as they want, and still get bailed out. I'm sticking with my .60 FV.. (Of course, I mean FV 3-5 months from now)

hey guys.
the way i think about chf

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/a2...bd2z_thumb.gif

Good luck

They used to actually publish their trades with T/Ps and S/Ls (not that I ever followed their recommendations) when they were Bank of Scotland but now BoS have merged with Lloyds and the format of the circular has changed. Seems Lloyds don't have the cojones to put it all out there

Some more bedtime reading for those funnymentalists out there.

ROLF - yeah, man, stick to your convictions You never know, you could have the last laugh. Seems traders are getting tired of trying to short the damn monster though

SSI: EURUSD Ratio Flips Following a 5% Drop in Retail Interest
Tuesday, 06 Apr 2010 09:58 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, DailyFX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:




Intraday Highlight:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.04 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.22 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.5% higher than yesterday and 2.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 15.1% lower than yesterday and 3.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.9% weaker than yesterday and 2.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

SSI Details:

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.15 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.32 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.6% higher than yesterday and 0.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.3% lower than yesterday and 6.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.3% weaker than yesterday and 3.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.22 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.40 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.7% higher than yesterday and 5.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 8.9% lower than yesterday and 7.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.2% weaker than yesterday and 5.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at -1.06 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.29 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.2% higher than yesterday and 12.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.7% lower than yesterday and 2.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.0% weaker than yesterday and 9.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 3.86 as nearly 79% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.40 as 81% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.6% lower than yesterday and 58.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 10.9% higher than yesterday and 20.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 16.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.87 as nearly 65% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.00 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.0% higher than yesterday and 48.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 10.0% higher than yesterday and 17.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.3% stronger than yesterday and 32.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.63 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.59 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.4% lower than yesterday and 15.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.9% lower than yesterday and 26.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.9% weaker than yesterday and 0.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.34 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.05 as 51% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 26.4% higher than yesterday and 57.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.0% lower than yesterday and 2.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 13.1% stronger than yesterday and 11.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

it seems good

E/U
holding short from 1.3488

G'day Patience, yea they (Lloyds) used to published their trade recommendations before the merger, I remember I opened a demo account maybe around 3 years ago to follow their recommendations, the result wasn't impressive though.

U/J buy limit at 93.80 got filled, let's see if I can get my 97 target this week