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  • #11,241
  • Apr 4, 2010 11:18am Apr 4, 2010 11:18am
Quoting numbnuts
Grail refers to the 'holy grail' of trading, i.e. the perfect system which always profits and never loses. Of course it doesnt exist - but people who find highly profitable systems like this one often refer to it half-jokingly as the grail.
From reading the thread, I know the holy grail is me and no-one else.
  • #11,242
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:05pm Apr 4, 2010 12:05pm
BIG Boss
March BEEB
Price below 20,50 & 100 MA's
Still above 200 though.
April start has pushed down through the trendline for Dec 2004.

Boss
Weekly BEEB, Price below all MA's
Price through resistance @R7.32
Only looking for further shorting trades.

Worker

Looking for PA around R7.3300/50
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,243
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:51pm Apr 4, 2010 12:51pm
Quoting Money Magnet
BIG Boss
March BEEB
Price below 20,50 & 100 MA's
Still above 200 though.
April start has pushed down through the trendline for Dec 2004.

Boss
Weekly BEEB, Price below all MA's
Price through resistance @R7.32
Only looking for further shorting trades.

Worker

Looking for PA around R7.3300/50

Very nice. Reminds me of the Loonie a bit a few weekls ago.
  • #11,244
  • Apr 4, 2010 1:06pm Apr 4, 2010 1:06pm
I would like to offer some thoughts, and hopefully it will be received in the spirit given. First, I am obviously not a regular contributor because I'm still learning concerning this particular trading method, as well as trading in general. Obviously, I'm not making all the money I want to or I wouldn't still be looking. Yet, I would like to share a few things that I have heard over the years, and still frequently forget.

One of my favorite terms is: to Realize, or to make a real. That is, that "AHA" moment, the "Eureka", the "that is so obvious" that usually takes years to discover.

I also want to quote someone from a different venture, but certainly seems to apply here: "How hard can it be? This isn't Brain Surgery! But slowly I realized, it IS brain surgery... that you perform on yourself... without an anesthetic!"

Also in the modern world, we communicate a lot by E-mail, blogs, and forum's, usually with people we don't know, can't see, or hear, and then assume (as I did) that they will understand our quirky sense of humor, or not get upset by something that was not intentional. Apologies to Strat, my reference to the term BEEP was supposed to be a joke, and obviously not interpreted that way, and rereading my own post I am sure I would have come to the same conclusion if I had not known the author (myself).

I have also heard the term Tempered Steel applied to the concept of making oneself tougher in order to succeed at something, and it certainly applies here, and those that are trying to help by being tough is understandable, but those that are intentionally derogatory doesn't really help.

At this point, I am pleased to see at least SOME of my SR lines in the same general area as others who are posting their charts. I started trading with a "earn as you learn" attitude, which those wiser than me will correctly translate as "LOSE as you learn". (Thanks to Uncle Sam for letting me deduct some of my losses over the years.) After losing 25% of my trading capital one year (in about a month), I find it nearly impossible to risk more than 1% on any trade. In fact, the Turtles (Richard Dennis) never risked more than 5% on ALL open trades.

See you all at the Top! (or the Bottom, depending on which way the market is going)

P.S. That last sentence was supposed to be funny. And writing this post has been as much, if not more, for me as anyone else who finds it useful.

Thanks,
Eric
  • #11,245
  • Apr 4, 2010 1:23pm Apr 4, 2010 1:23pm
Quoting Lou
Hi Pistol Dave. In the words of a former college professor I had, "your work is concise, precise and nice." I wanted you to see the area that U/Cad is getting into. Worker may already be reacting.
Hi Low
Wow Lou u have been trading for so long , That is cool
I found u r post at e/u since 2004 one of few early post at this thread.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=10372

Wounder what happen to Snprr who started the thread
  • #11,246
  • Apr 4, 2010 2:24pm Apr 4, 2010 2:24pm
Hey Egkid,

Sorry, I don't have any info on Snprr.
On nearly every thread and nearly all the time, folks on FFF are respectful and helpful. This thread.. Strat's... is a good place to be.

You will be glad you found it.
  • #11,247
  • Apr 4, 2010 3:01pm Apr 4, 2010 3:01pm
This is my first post. I striped everything off then this neckline presented itself on the weekly. Besides that we are also trapped in a trading range that existed for 10 years from 1993 to 2003 before breaking north above 1.70. It is becoming more clear that time has it's place along with support and resistance. Feel free to punch holes in this post..... gotta learn somehow....happy trading.

Steve.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,248
  • Apr 4, 2010 3:41pm Apr 4, 2010 3:41pm
Quoting Lou
Hey Egkid,

Sorry, I don't have any info on Snprr.
On nearly every thread and nearly all the time, folks on FFF are respectful and helpful. This thread.. Strat's... is a good place to be.

You will be glad you found it.
Thanks Lou
I'm happy to find this thread looks good.
Will start to share my view here :-)
  • #11,249
  • Apr 4, 2010 4:31pm Apr 4, 2010 4:31pm
Well, a bit shy to post after all these excellent reports. Do me best.

This aud cad is a bit fascinating with this huge range in the past 30 years or so.

Monthly: has showed that .9850 is IS A STRONG RESISTANCE. We're still under control of the Xmas candle and looking at the 20 from the comfortable vintage point of the .9250 support (minor yet seems to be doing the job for now). 50 under the 100 and under the 200. In fact those two have been under the 200 for ten years! For now, monthly is still in a range.

Weekly: Looking a bit more bullish but no rodeo here, for now. A descending triangle is clear here, so it could easily break support and 50 and go towards the 100 and .9050 area which are both case over the 200. The 20 is battling the 50 and weekly close is on the 50. We have got LL, LH but not yet the LL, so the trend is up, untill then. Last two weeks price failed to go up.

Daily: Imho it looks bearish, like dancing on the .9250 sup. The 100 and 50 are racing down. .8800 area could be a minor stop after cutting the 100 and 200 and then race, where? to the bottom of the range? Only PA knows . Friday candle shooting star (or inverted hammer?).

So, for now I would be looking at PA to go short under the support and, if a bounce up then PA to go long, maybe over .9500 area.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #11,250
  • Apr 4, 2010 4:59pm Apr 4, 2010 4:59pm
Again a 20 year range (or so).

Monthly: seems to have broken both resistance and that famously loong trendline, touched quite a few times, even if last months candle has a long tail and is controlling action for now. MAs are going up yet a bit far away.

Weekly: Dutifully came down and tested both the trendline and resistance now probably confirmed as support roughly 1.2900 area. Last candle BUEB still under the control of that bullish candle of four weeks ago, bouncing from the 20, closing over said support. MAs are going up.

Daily: A few things could be seen into that last pattern, maybe the simplest is a bullish flag. Thursday's candle was a BUEB. MAs are going up, MOnday's candle bounced from the 50.

This seems to be a bullish scenario that could point to 1.3600. Monthly distance to MAs may indicate a bit of strife. a break of that 1.3120, previous high might be a good place if PA holds. Or break of flag?

Tuesday's Aussie news are also to be taken into account, please.

Spinner
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #11,251
  • Apr 4, 2010 5:11pm Apr 4, 2010 5:11pm
Hey spinner,
I already have a long position open on this. Nice analysis - price has already broken upper trendline which was tested many times, but my position is based mostly on the fundamentals which are extremely bullish. RBA is almost certainly set to raise its cash rate and IMF recently announced the NZD to be overvalued by at least 10%. Something to think about.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #11,252
  • Apr 4, 2010 8:26pm Apr 4, 2010 8:26pm
Monthly: We have a BUOB that formed off of the 69.00 level and the 38.2 fib of the recent up move from Jan of last year. This candle also closed strongly above the monthly 20.

Weekly: Price has made a nice bounce off of the minor 65.00 level, the weekly 20 is still above the 50 and starting to head upwards again.

Daily: Price has made some good gains this past two weeks and is getting away from the 20. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback off of the TL to the 20 before we test the highs again. Dr. Joe is still in play.
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  • #11,253
  • Apr 4, 2010 8:48pm Apr 4, 2010 8:48pm
Hi sblank
Nice Chart and view :-)

My daily chart G/U
Daily Chart G/U (We have been bouncing for 1 month now between 2 Red dots line 1.48 - 1.53 )
Not confirmation yet but looks to me we going to 1.56 then after that to 1.43xx
MY Sunday candle close in 135 min if we close above 1.5280 1.5290 that confirmation to ME we going 1.56

PS: Yearly pvt 1.57 Red line , Pink line Yearly S1
I could be wrong but this what i see and remember everyone trade depends on His TF and MM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,254
  • Apr 5, 2010 6:25am Apr 5, 2010 6:25am
Quoting Flem26
Hey . . . Eur/Jpy is mine! You can't have her!
Hi,

I'm sorry if I intruded into your pair. Just picked the pair that looked intresting to me currently and used it, but no turning back now. Good thing is that we have different views on this and maybe make us both to look twice at our analysis. Question is if that is good for us. Less is more?

But even after reviewing and comparing my notes to yours I still keep my position of only shorting this pair after Daily PA around 128.00 area.

Monthly chart - Price is on the down poiting trendline with 20 below 50 meaning bearish.
Weekly chart - Even though price has closed above the 20 but can it close next weekly bar above the 20? There were many times of price closing above 20 and closing below next bar. Still 20 is below 50 on weekly telling me no longs just yet.

Now I want price to go through 128.00 and see how strong the sellers are there, expecting a strong reject of prices above 128.00 closing below and forming strong shooting star or BEEB to take position on.
  • #11,255
  • Apr 5, 2010 8:03am Apr 5, 2010 8:03am
Hi all,

I just came across this thread couple of days ago and trying to read as much as I could. I had been doing day trading and was unsuccessful so far and have blown out number of live accounts. I really want to get into end of day trading but don't know how becuase of very limited capital. If I re-start with $1,000 and risk 3% that means my first stop loss is going to be just 30 pips away assuming $1/pip. By looking at huge up/down in a day in every pair, I will highly likely be out of trade soon.

I also tried EA and on one ocassion my account was up six times in just two months and in the next two weeks I was wiped out including my capital.

What would be the suggestion in this senario? Shall I go back to day trade and find strategy suitable for 15m or 30m OR risk 15% in the first trade (150 pips) on daily.

Thanks to Strat on starting such a wonderful thread and to others who contributed and still contributing.
  • #11,256
  • Apr 5, 2010 8:33am Apr 5, 2010 8:33am
Quoting simpleman
...

What would be the suggestion in this senario? Shall I go back to day trade and find strategy suitable for 15m or 30m OR risk 15% in the first trade (150 pips) on daily.

Thanks to Strat on starting such a wonderful thread and to others who contributed and still contributing.
The best scenario would be, to transfer funds or open new Mini account where you can trade very small amounts. After this 1000$ account will be easily sufficient to trade this method.
  • #11,257
  • Apr 5, 2010 9:14am Apr 5, 2010 9:14am
Quoting james_t
baniu,

thanks for the response i toyed with the idea of responding or not responding especially as i was slightly dumbfounded by your response. in the end i positive - i hope you do the same.

good luck on the journey and next time just STOP then THINK for 5 minutes before posting, maybe even tell yourself, 'baniu, please don't talk about the market unless you have at least 2-300 words to give these people here on this thread.'
it will improve the quality for all concerned.

james
i personally believe strat should set a MINIMUM word limit of 2-300 words on ALL posts imagine the quality of thread we would have. a lot of people here including so called veteran members ruin it you just have to look at the last 3 days on this thread just lots of random irrelevant rubbish about einstein and psycho BABBLE.

Yeah, good idea!!!

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #11,258
  • Apr 5, 2010 10:21am Apr 5, 2010 10:21am
Quoting No1Optimist
Greetings Strat,

I have been grappling with the problem of the "correct" placement of SR lines and have had some very helpful private advice from Blackeagle on this, one of his favourite subjects.

This such an important subject being one of the two basic planks of your PASR method.

It seems to me that your description of these levels as being energy levels rather than specific price points is far more useful in the real time trading situation.

Finding price points for SR levels, is a very subjective matter, with bar high and low prices coming...
I'm not sure what is described elsewhere. I just use what I understand.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,259
  • Apr 5, 2010 10:50am Apr 5, 2010 10:50am
Sometimes those of us that have been on the thread for a while take the process we have here for granted because Strat has drilled it so many times. I'll post the few ground rules we have for the new posters benefit:

1. Do not post anything until you have started reading the thread and have read up to AT LEAST page 20. By then you've read enough to know enough to start asking questions. If you can't do this, then there is no need to read further and you may find another thread.

2. Do not post a chart with anything other than the 20ema, 50sma, 100ema, 250sma, trend lines and SR lines.

3. Don't post a chart, make an inadequate analysis and then say 'what do you think?' You are a lurker. If you haven't read enough to know how to make a proper Strat analysis, keep reading.

4. This thread is for serious students only. If you aren't serious enough to read far enough to know how this thread requires you to participate, you should not waste your time or ours with the nonsense posts that have dominated this thread for the past week.

This thread is about traders helping traders. If you haven't established yourself as having demonstrated some proficiency at using this method, please refrain from assisting others on this thread because you have no proven background from which to offer assistance. Let the thread get to know you from your posted analysis FIRST, then your offers of assistance will have more credibility and will thus be more welcome once you have proven yourself (unless you're a senior member of course!).
  • #11,260
  • Apr 5, 2010 10:53am Apr 5, 2010 10:53am
With Naws largely out of touch due to his assignment In Thailand, Marcus (mstandifer) has taken over the Thread Administration and Path Registration duties.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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