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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,161
  • Apr 3, 2010 9:50am Apr 3, 2010 9:50am
Quoting Patience

I don't know if you guys want me to keep posting the SSI in the thread as you can now access it yourselves but I'll just post Friday night's SSI anyway.


Attachment
G'day Patience,
please keep posting SSI if it's fine with you, it's easier to look at it here besides the main point of the thread is discussing the interpretation of the sentiment and trade ideas. I could have referred everyone to the timingchart webite and stopped posting COT but I continued to post as this might benefit everyone reading the thread.

oh, I forgot to say that I hope you are enjoying the weekend ,weather is perfect here and my friend and I plan to do barbecue near the spring.
have fun everyone.
  • #1,162
  • Edited 11:02am Apr 3, 2010 10:34am | Edited 11:02am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day Patience,
please keep posting SSI if it's fine with you, it's easier to look at it here besides the main point of the thread is discussing the interpretation of the sentiment and trade ideas. I could have referred everyone to the timingchart webite and stopped posting COT but I continued to post as this might benefit everyone reading the thread.

oh, I forgot to say that I hope you are enjoying the weekend ,weather is perfect here and my friend and I plan to do barbecue near the spring.
have fun everyone.
Okay, that's cool. But if I'm not around at least you can access it. I live in the wrong place! We finally had some sun today but it's not warm and it's been raining as well. Have a nice bar-b-q.

Speculators raise US dollar longs in latest week-CFTC

Fri Apr 2, 2010 3:57pm EDT

NEW YORK, April 2 (Reuters) - Currency speculators increased their bets on the U.S. dollar in the latest week,according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data released on Friday.

The value of the dollar's net long position totaled $12.28 billion in the week ending March 30, compared with a net longof $4.08 billion the previous week, according to CFTC and Reuters data. The latest week's net long dollar position was the largest since Feb. 23, according to Reuters estimates.

The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar position is derived from the net positions of International Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars.

Speculators, meanwhile, further raised their short positions on the euro to a new record of -85,326 contracts, according to CFTC data. The single currency has been under selling pressure on persistent concerns over debt troubles in Greece.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0217284920100402


Quoting shahab8b
I just read articles on " announcement by the Fed to hold a meeting “under expedited procedures” at 15:30GMT on Monday,on the subject of a review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by Federal Reserve Banks"

you can find the articles on fx360 or dailyfx , if you remember couple of weeks ago when Fed surprisingly raised discount rates , USD strengthened all over the board.
I Doubt It
By Jamie Coleman

The Fed went out of its way to signal its intention to raise the discount rate to the market well before doing so. This time around, there has not been a peep. I suspect they will be quite clear about their intentions before bumping the rate back up to its normal 100 bp spread over the Fed funds rate.

Even if they do hike the rate, so what? The Fed is making the discount rate a penalty rate for banks that cannot get funding in the market, once again, after opening the window to one and all during the financial crisis.

Last time around the market went crazy on the unexpected timing of a hike, only to see the Fed play down its impact. The dollar spiked for less than a day before returning to its 1.3625 starting point.

We won’t get fooled again…

http://www.forexlive.com/97711/all/i-doubt-it
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,163
  • Apr 4, 2010 2:25am Apr 4, 2010 2:25am
Quoting shahab8b
COT E/U:

the net positioning in E/U is getting more intense and I should add I was surprised when I saw the no . large institute added to their short E/U contracts from 74,917 to -85,326 (that's a record low in 2 years)
COT: extreme bearish (0)
Short/Long Ratio:3.42

sum up: trend is down but the risk of a larger upward correction is high.
Hi Shahab...

I take it the 74,917 was a negative -79,917 to -85,326? Just trying to keep these numbers straight.
  • #1,164
  • Apr 4, 2010 3:35am Apr 4, 2010 3:35am
WELL , Im reading all posts here on this pair and I have something to tell you.
This pair is in a limited up-trend and not 1.5380 will determine if its on a bullish trend or not...as long as this pair will trade below 1.5800-50 it will still be in bearish trending.
If 1.54 will break higher probably 1.58 will be the target and from there free fall to 1.35 till year ends .

p.s. (for member clouds )...

As I wrote earlier (page 69) here G/J has already touched 1.4300 and above so short at that time was not a good idea.

have a great week to come.
  • #1,165
  • Apr 4, 2010 7:23am Apr 4, 2010 7:23am
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Shahab...

I take it the 74,917 was a negative -79,917 to -85,326? Just trying to keep these numbers straight.
you are right, I meant -74,917.
  • #1,166
  • Apr 4, 2010 7:43am Apr 4, 2010 7:43am
Quoting ronenasp
WELL ,...
Hi, ronenasp
talking about the trend of a pair we should consider the TF as we all know.

for G/U the trend is like this

Monthly : down against 1.7050
Weekly: down against 1.6085
Daily: down against 1.5389
4H: up against 1.5115
H: down against 1.5263

above 1.5389 doesn't make W/M Up but makes daily Up.
bedsides, I read you mentioned some numbers and predicted the move on G/J and G/U, would you mind posting a chart with your post next time and draw the moves so we can understand your point.
  • #1,167
  • Apr 4, 2010 7:47am Apr 4, 2010 7:47am
Dear all,

One thing I don't like to happen in this thread is someone saying something without supporting it.
so please consider these point when you are making a prediction or you are making a trade call.

1-if the reason is technical , a chart MUST be attached to the trade call
2-if the reason is fundamental , it should be explained clearly or the source should be posted.

Regards
Shahab
  • #1,168
  • Apr 4, 2010 8:05am Apr 4, 2010 8:05am
Quoting Jason Rogers
Hi Jack,

Saw your post...
Username: dfxplus
Password: Gbpusd041

-Jason

hey jason.... saw your post too..... and noticed your quote, " Cut your losses and let profits run. "....... thanks for the reminder of something we so quickly forget.....

a extemely highly reliable source once told me there were traders that had 30,000 open orders or more..... this was brought up in a conversation about a 'logistics' subject but was made by a person in a position which no doubt would know.....


that can only be done by long trends and letting profits run..... and dual accounts......


we appear to be entering such a time..... thanks again.....h
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,169
  • Apr 4, 2010 8:16am Apr 4, 2010 8:16am
Quoting shahab8b
1-if the reason is technical , a chart MUST be attached to the trade call
2-if the reason is fundamental , it should be explained clearly or the source should be posted.

Regards
Shahab
hey shahab..... just noticed your post.... that's a wise policy.....


//-----

i make few, if any, predictions..... maybe none..... but will always use charts that have my real life trades openly seen.... the account will always be the same ibfx mini account........h
to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #1,170
  • Apr 4, 2010 8:28am Apr 4, 2010 8:28am
COT CADUSD

Long CAD contracts (large institutes) were slightly reduced form 73,027 t0 70,296, COT index is bullish extreme (U/Cad bearish extreme)
the Long/Short ratio is 4.84 which is less than 2-3 weeks ago.

Sum up: trend in U/Cad is down, but extreme positioning indicates an upward correction is due.


trade ideas:

as you know we had buy limit order at 1.0085 and 1.0065 last week.
I got my 1.0085 order but I didn't get 1.0065 order (with one pip)
I closed half with tiny profit (+30) and half still open.

for this week;

buy a clear break of R at 1.0310
I will examine the chart on Mon NY close to find more trade set up (whether short or long)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,171
  • Apr 4, 2010 8:46am Apr 4, 2010 8:46am
Quoting hayseed
hey shahab..... just noticed your post.... that's a wise policy.....


//-----

i make few, if any, predictions..... maybe none..... but will always use charts that have my real life trades openly seen.... the account will always be the same ibfx mini account........h

Hi there, I know you always do the same .Besides I know you are an experienced trader and I trust your judgment.I appreciate that you share your view here, which is very useful because you approach the market from a different point.

Regards
Shahab
  • #1,172
  • Apr 4, 2010 8:56am Apr 4, 2010 8:56am
E/G

let's see the NY activity on Mon then we can decide if it's good to take a long on E/G
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,173
  • Apr 4, 2010 9:09am Apr 4, 2010 9:09am
I have added a chart to explain what I wrote earlier on GBP/USD.
any breakout to this pair above 1.54 will stop at 1.58 area to below 1.4780 and eventually 1.35 - 1.36 .
As can be seen on chart , macd "force" this pair to downside bias (for longer term) .any change in my plan will accure only if 1.58 weekly close above 1.6000.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd weekly chart 04042010.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #1,174
  • Apr 4, 2010 9:44am Apr 4, 2010 9:44am
Quoting ronenasp
I have added a chart to explain what I wrote earlier on GBP/USD.
any breakout to this pair above 1.54 will stop at 1.58 area to below 1.4780 and eventually 1.35 - 1.36 .
As can be seen on chart , macd "force" this pair to downside bias (for longer term) .any change in my plan will accure only if 1.58 weekly close above 1.6000.

Hi ronenasp,

thanx for posting a chart to explain your view.

btw, let's say if 1.54 breaks the price may go to 1.58 and capped there as we have a strong S>R there, (actually I think it may go up to 1.59 ish-as measured rule of a possible double bottom). having said that you think we shouldn't take longs to a 300-400 pips move even if it capped at 1.58?

PS: I'm still bearish as far as R at 1.5389 holds + I wrote two possible scenario considering EW count as you can see at my G/U post
  • #1,175
  • Apr 4, 2010 10:31am Apr 4, 2010 10:31am
this is how i read my chart on GU

1 > price break below the the red trendline, finding support at 1.48. retrace to test the red trendline and continue it downtrend

2 > price find support at red trendline and possible price stall at 1.53xx and continue it downtrend

3> Price break 1.53xx. i would only consider an uptrend movement if price break above 1.55 and come back to test the blue horizontal trendline

Taking dollar index DXY, USD is having trendline support and i find it following the 10MA S/R quite well on the weekly chart. Personally i still take a bear stand unless price break above 1.55
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,176
  • Apr 4, 2010 10:44am Apr 4, 2010 10:44am
Hi:

I have a long time follower of this thread, and benifitted immensely from everyone's analysis. I was looking at the MACD of H4 AUD/USD and there is bearish divergence. It looks to me that there is very limited upside and its ready for a fall. Any comments.
Thanks
  • #1,177
  • Apr 4, 2010 11:39am Apr 4, 2010 11:39am
Quoting hellopip
Hi:

I have a long time follower of this thread, and benifitted immensely from everyone's analysis. I was looking at the MACD of H4 AUD/USD and there is bearish divergence. It looks to me that there is very limited upside and its ready for a fall. Any comments.
Thanks
Would you mind sending me your settings for the MACD so that I can take a look and offer my opinion? Thanks.
ThinkorSwim
Fast Length?
Slow Length?
macd Length?
Type (EMA,SMA)?

or on MT4/5
Fast EMA?
Slow EMA?
MACD SMA?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #1,178
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:02pm Apr 4, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting shahab8b
EW count as you can see at my G/U post
here is my view My good man



first is Elliot wave Elongated Flat


and


second is Neo wave natural triangle


keep cool ur trade level Regards Vincy balboa
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: GU neo wave.JPG Size: 45 KB
DRAGON-TECHNICAL ANALYSIS!
  • #1,179
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:03pm Apr 4, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting hellopip
Hi:

I have a long time follower of this thread, and benifitted immensely from everyone's analysis. I was looking at the MACD of H4 AUD/USD and there is bearish divergence. It looks to me that there is very limited upside and its ready for a fall. Any comments.
Thanks
Hi there, that's right. I'm already in , but I prefer to see market movement in NY session as there is bank holiday in EU ,that may give us some clue.
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  • #1,180
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:05pm Apr 4, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting vincy balboa
here is my view My good man



first is Elliot wave Elongated Flat


and


second is Neo wave natural triangle


keep cool ur trade level Regards Vincy balboa
Hi Vincy , good to see you around here my friend. you are an EW pro so I'll take a note of your count
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