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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #6,161
  • Apr 1, 2010 3:38pm Apr 1, 2010 3:38pm
Quoting okehiedon
Good thread Night Moves. I trade along the concept of this thread. Would be looking to participate.
Hello okehiedon,
Glad to have you just jump right in the waters warm...LOL

--NM
  • #6,162
  • Apr 1, 2010 3:48pm Apr 1, 2010 3:48pm
I got into a short in gbp/cad H4. Stop right above last high. Let's see how it works out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpcad h4 1.4.2010.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #6,163
  • Apr 1, 2010 4:00pm Apr 1, 2010 4:00pm
Quoting Custos
I got into a short in gbp/cad H4. Stop right above last high. Let's see how it works out.
It should work, there is nothing coming up to blow it out of the water.

--NM
  • #6,164
  • Apr 1, 2010 4:14pm Apr 1, 2010 4:14pm
Hallo guys

i`ve been following your thread since a few days, and i like your style to trade.

IŽm watching the UC, double Low on the H4 on a S-Level

Maybe it get bullish and break the 1.01 or weŽll see a break of the S-Level
and go south.


Sorry for my bad english, my native language is german.

Martin
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 01.04 UC_H4.png Size: 34 KB
Trade well and many pips to all. Martin
  • #6,165
  • Apr 1, 2010 4:33pm Apr 1, 2010 4:33pm
Quoting pipmax
Hallo guys

i`ve been following your thread since a few days, and i like your style to trade.

IŽm watching the UC, double Low on the H4 on a S-Level

Maybe it get bullish and break the 1.01 or weŽll see a break of the S-Level
and go south.


Sorry for my bad english, my native language is german.

Martin
Hi pipmax, nice that you join in.
A couple of comments concerning your usd/cad setup. This pair is as bearish as it gets. We just broke big support on the weekly and retested it from below confirming the downtrend and as you see on the weekly a big trend going down.
Compared to that your h4 double bottom is pretty insignificant.

A word of advice: Don't try to pick the tops or bottoms. Stick with the trend and buy/sell the retraces.
trend is definitely still down in the usd/cad. It would take big fundamental changes in the US or Canadian economy to justify a trend change. Right now those changes are not present, thus stick with the downtrend.

hope that helps & best regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad w1 1.4.2010.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #6,166
  • Apr 1, 2010 7:50pm Apr 1, 2010 7:50pm
Quoting NightMoves
really it will, I closed down the EURAUD trade, the setup is completely gone, so once again aggressive trading seldom works, always wait until the price does EXACTLY as you want it to do in my EURAUD it did not do that it was close but still 3 pips away from where my entry should have been. And even though it was only 3 pips it made a difference.

You have to dictate to the price what you want it to do not the other way around.

--NM
Dear NM,
Good job to close the poistion!
How can we know this setup will not success, and close the trade before its S/L? Or just place a S/L and let it go?

Thanks
Armadise
  • #6,167
  • Edited 11:33pm Apr 1, 2010 11:20pm | Edited 11:33pm
Quoting Armadise
Dear NM,
Good job to close the poistion!
How can we know this setup will not success, and close the trade before its S/L? Or just place a S/L and let it go?

Thanks
Armadise
I let it move a number of pips from my entry and then move my SL to break even, once it has moved 20 or 25 pips sometimes a little more...but anyway once you move your stop to BE then it is a free trade. I close out part of my position around 50 pips or so then move my stop, so now I have banked 50 pips and I have no risk on the table. Then just follow it with your SL and ride it as far as you can.


Additional info: When I look for a setup I look for the setup to complete within a certain amount of bars, if it becomes a dragging trade where it is taking too many bars then I will close the trade down and look for a new setup. The longer your in the trade without your setup following through the more likely it becomes the setup is going to fail.

Sometimes it will get into a range after the entry and if it stays in that range for and extended period of time based on the time frame I am trading, then I would rather close it down at a small loss and look for another entry rather than risk any larger drawdowns then necessary.

--NM
  • #6,168
  • Apr 1, 2010 11:39pm Apr 1, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting Armadise
Dear NM,
Good job to close the poistion!
How can we know this setup will not success, and close the trade before its S/L? Or just place a S/L and let it go?

Thanks
Armadise
You kind of have to think to yourself, if I just opened my chart and seen where price is right now would I enter the trade? And if the answer is no, then the setup has most likely fallen apart, and sometimes they will fall apart that is why you really have to let the setup complete before you jump in trying to anticipate the move.

--NM
  • #6,169
  • Apr 2, 2010 1:12am Apr 2, 2010 1:12am
Quoting Armadise
Dear NM,
Good job to close the poistion!
How can we know this setup will not success, and close the trade before its S/L? Or just place a S/L and let it go?

Thanks
Armadise
for hector style trades, as NM mentioned, it is important to look how long a setup takes to follow through. In other words, look at momentum. See if you can find big momentum bars on the setup chart. The faster the setup realizes, the better.
Also very often, if you enter a trade and are not immediately in profits, then you can already expect that it won't become a very good trade.
  • #6,170
  • Apr 2, 2010 5:53am Apr 2, 2010 5:53am
what do you guys think about the jpy crosses? I am really not sure which way they are gonna turn from here. I am actually thinking they will go down, but on the other hand they have had such a big up move, it might as well continue.

What do you guys think?
  • #6,171
  • Apr 2, 2010 6:56am Apr 2, 2010 6:56am
Quoting Custos
what do you guys think about the jpy crosses? I am really not sure which way they are gonna turn from here. I am actually thinking they will go down, but on the other hand they have had such a big up move, it might as well continue.

What do you guys think?
Thats a good question, I am seeing the only JPY cross that is not hitting any resistance right now is the CJ pair that has room yet, the rest are in a brush pile. They seem to follow each other so I am not sure what will happen.

--NM
  • #6,172
  • Edited 4:49pm Apr 2, 2010 1:27pm | Edited 4:49pm
A trade I got into today, even though I knew there was news coming out. Attached is eur/usd h4 and d1 chart.

H4 is my confluence chart. horizontal S/R level + fib level + trendline. Stop already at breakeven.
D1 just shows my target area for that trade. I marked the bigger swing here with my fibs. 138.2% alligns very well with 1.3000. A very very round number. Also if you guys look at your weekly chart, we are forming a huge triangle on the eur/usd. And the triangle bottom is also not that far away from 1.3000. Of course it could go further, but I wanna stay conservative with my target.
Of course I wanna try to add on retracement on the way down.

cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd h4 2.4.2010.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd d1 2.4.2010.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #6,173
  • Apr 2, 2010 5:37pm Apr 2, 2010 5:37pm
NightMoves, ur a terrific teacher. new to this thread and only into the posts but set up the charts and had 3 great trades today...mostly usdjpy.

this is my weekend homework, study the thread and the charts!

many thx for ur generous teaching. your clear teaching process is the best i have ever studied. i think this plan could be my trading plan. for the first time i began to see more clearly, and i am not new to trading.. weak smile..

i will be here during my trading hours, please give details as u have time. i am sure you are helping many.

you have inspired me
farmhand
  • #6,174
  • Apr 2, 2010 7:10pm Apr 2, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting farmhand
NightMoves, ur a terrific teacher. new to this thread and only into the posts but set up the charts and had 3 great trades today...mostly usdjpy.

this is my weekend homework, study the thread and the charts!

many thx for ur generous teaching. your clear teaching process is the best i have ever studied. i think this plan could be my trading plan. for the first time i began to see more clearly, and i am not new to trading.. weak smile..

i will be here during my trading hours, please give details as u have time. i am sure you are helping many....
HI farmhand,
Welcome to the thread, this is a pretty simple method of trading and the setups we trade are high probability setups, trading in only the direction of the trend keeps the probability of a winning trade on our side.

There are different targets levels of course depending on whether or not your intraday trading or longer term trading this method works for either one.

There are some very good traders out here that can answer any questions you have along with myself as I would be glad to get you up to speed using this method everyone on this thread is quite helpful that way we all pretty much trade the same method in some form or another.

We usually post the setups were watching and the trades were in and where are target levels are for the type of trade we are in whether intraday or longer term.

Go ahead and search through the thread there is a lot of information in here with posted trades, including losing trades and why they did not work and most of the time its because we did something we knew should not have but did it anyway...happens to all of us...

--NM
  • #6,175
  • Apr 4, 2010 12:28am Apr 4, 2010 12:28am
Quoting Custos
for hector style trades, as NM mentioned, it is important to look how long a setup takes to follow through. In other words, look at momentum. See if you can find big momentum bars on the setup chart. The faster the setup realizes, the better.
Also very often, if you enter a trade and are not immediately in profits, then you can already expect that it won't become a very good trade.
NM, Custos,
Thanks for your precise replys.
  • #6,176
  • Apr 4, 2010 1:15am Apr 4, 2010 1:15am
Quoting NightMoves
I let it move a number of pips from my entry and then move my SL to break even, once it has moved 20 or 25 pips sometimes a little more...but anyway once you move your stop to BE then it is a free trade. I close out part of my position around 50 pips or so then move my stop, so now I have banked 50 pips and I have no risk on the table. Then just follow it with your SL and ride it as far as you can.


Additional info: When I look for a setup I look for the setup to complete within a certain amount of bars, if it becomes a dragging trade where it...
Thanks
I really learned a lot.
Do you use trailing stops? If yes, how you use it?
  • #6,177
  • Apr 4, 2010 7:53am Apr 4, 2010 7:53am
Quoting Armadise
Thanks
I really learned a lot.
Do you use trailing stops? If yes, how you use it?
I do use stops but I set them manually. I do not use trailing stops set to a specific pip level, I use them in a couple of ways. I use fib retracements as stops and I use S/R levels as stops. I change back and forth according to the pair I am trading and sometimes the fib may land on the S/R level which makes it all the better, the more volatile pairs I ususally use S/R resistance levels and the pairs that are not so volatile I will use fibs, so I try and determine which method will keep in longer based on the price action like retracement depth and how well the pair has been respecting previous intraday S/R levels and fib levels. Does that make sense?

--NM
  • #6,178
  • Apr 4, 2010 7:24pm Apr 4, 2010 7:24pm
EJ testing the Daily resistance....

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily resistance test.png Size: 29 KB
  • #6,179
  • Apr 4, 2010 9:05pm Apr 4, 2010 9:05pm
Quoting NightMoves
EJ testing the Daily resistance....

--NM
hi nightmoves, are you still using the moving averages as outlined in the first page?
  • #6,180
  • Apr 4, 2010 10:05pm Apr 4, 2010 10:05pm
Quoting rogerdoger
hi nightmoves, are you still using the moving averages as outlined in the first page?
Yes most of the time I do use them, I do not always use them, I will someimtes take them off my chart when I get to the trigger chart so I can see the PA a better, and on the high time frames like the weekly and daily I some times take them off but most of the time I have them.

--NM
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