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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #59,881
  • Apr 3, 2010 9:30am Apr 3, 2010 9:30am
Quoting cprao
I have Been reading this forum for a long and did interact a very few times here. Still learning the trade..

Does this Pin bar on EURJPY make any sense to go long further ?

Pros:
1)Bounced off the PPZ 126.90 or 127.00 area
2) No visible traffic ahead until 129 area
3) bar is also off 38% retracement of fibnocci connecting 10/23 and 2/24

Cons:
1) Pin bar is not at the swing low, in fact at the swing high.
2) Not a big wic pin bar, though the body is closed above the previous bar.

How do you rate this ? Does this makes sense...
There is a guy who goes short on some of these.
.
  • #59,882
  • Apr 3, 2010 10:04am Apr 3, 2010 10:04am
Quoting Stockwalker
a possible pullback entry after the breakout? (around the green area)
lol I don't want it to break out!
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #59,883
  • Apr 3, 2010 10:29am Apr 3, 2010 10:29am
how about this?
pretty nice pb with confluence
maybe short @ 88,17
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Keeping it simple stupid.
  • #59,884
  • Apr 3, 2010 10:38am Apr 3, 2010 10:38am
Quoting nasir.khan
There is a guy who goes short on some of these.
.
Thank you Nasir. How do you make a potential short trade on this pattern ?
  • #59,885
  • Apr 3, 2010 10:40am Apr 3, 2010 10:40am
Quoting ghous
Throw in the 128 round number and see what value it holds

Continuation pin bars or for that matter any pa bar you use as a continuation signal is a lot more subtle than pa setups at swing ends. Hence you need to be extra careful

Buying into heavy resistance doesn't fall into my trade criteria at least.

(Just FYI I was looking for a much larger tail on your pin bar to give me a perfect IPB to go short)

g.
Thank you Ghous. Short from here ? Can you please further explain ?
  • #59,886
  • Apr 3, 2010 11:18am Apr 3, 2010 11:18am
Quoting cprao
Thank you Ghous. Short from here ? Can you please further explain ?
A bullish pin bar at a swing high and at good resistance can be a good signal short. Search through my posts with the keyword "IPB" and you'll see what I mean.

This does not qualify because of it's small shape but the location is ideal for one.

Here's an example of a better setup:

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #59,887
  • Apr 3, 2010 11:31am Apr 3, 2010 11:31am
No I don't mind at all. Yes I still use the 15m time frame, but I don't post a lot about it on the J16 forum because it isnt the same as what those guys are doing with the daily charts.

There are about 3 answers to your question.

1. Continue trading daily charts while following the J16 thread, but open a broker account that lets you trade a smaller size. Many brokers allow a size as small as 1 mini lot (10,000 units) which would be $100 bucks on a trade with the 100 pip stop loss. That is too big if you only have a few hundred in the account, so getting with a broker like OANDA will let you trade daily charts with the 100 pips stop loss with only $100 in the entire account. That is possible because with them you can set your position size as small as 1 unit (a fraction of a penny per pip). So you could still follow the dailies, follow the forum, learn, be trading real money, and all the while saving your money on the side to place in your trading account once you have reached a point of consistent success after all the practice. Almost a win/win because it takes XXX amount of time to get "good" and by the time you are good, you have money waiting to be put in the account.

You need to also consider how much time you have for trading. 15m while faster takes more time to sit and watch, where as dailies are more flexible. If you can't spend several hours a day for one of the 3 trading sessions, several days a week, do not trade 15m.

2. Habeeb (where is he these days anyway) said under 4hr was not reliable which is not true. The time frames have their differences but they are all generally the same. Instead of waiting and contemplating your daily pinbar trade for hours you have 10 minutes to do the same. so really it is the trader that can be more unreliable.

The J16 approach and the way I trade 15m TF are two different things. With J16 approach you are watching many many numerous pairs on daily, scanning them all for a "perfect" price action pinbar and managing your findings for the following days. I understand your concern with taking 30 pips while using 100 pip stop loss and coming out BE after 3 wins and 1 loss. The idea is that you are scanning the 40 pairs for good looking high probability setup which will nearly guarantee you will at least get that 30 pips and potentially many more. The win rate is high. You should rarely take a full 100 pip loss when you are spotting the high probability setups, and covering your ass quickly so that the end result is very very few full losses, some small gains, some large gains and many BE trades.

My approach to 15m TF is different. I watch the same pair every day, becoming familiar and intimate with it. I don't execute based on the break of those patterns PB, IB, OB etc. I'm not scanning dozens of charts looking for the patterns. I watch one and wait for a logical place to enter based on support and resistance. My max stop loss is 7 pips and usually am out by 3.5 if the trade isn't working right away. Gains of 40 pips to 100 or more pips are common. I stay in for several hours and sometimes overnight. I use horizontal lines based on past price (ppz on the forum). With $500 in your account risking 1% the position size on a 100 pip s/l would be 5 cents per pip. If you win 50 pips on the trade you have made $2 and 50 cents. With $500 risking 1% and a 7 pip s/l pip value is 70 cents, 50 pip gain is $35.

3. You can trade 15m TF but I don't recommend using the J16 approach on 15m. Use it on dailies. What I do is trade 15m TF on my OANDA account and I demo trade dailies with MT4.

I posted the 3hr chart to fit all the trading activity on 1 chart. I took the trades on 15m.

4x=0

Quoting triggerju
Hey 4X=0

Hope you don't mind me PM you, just wanted to ask you personally a question!! Not that I couldn't share it on the thread it's just most people just answer the same way on there when it comes to timeframes but I see you may be different!

I'm reading old posts and new in the J16 thread and see back in 2006 you started off in J16 price action with the likes of 5 and 15 minute charts. You said all that time ago "I don't have the risk capital to use 150 pip stop losses" after Habeeb said to you that anything under 4HR isn't that reliable - you probably don't remember but anyway...

Just want to ask you how you did with lower frames really as I am in the same boat as you were. With my best money management and the derivatives I trade, I simply cannot keep silly long nose pins stop losses going from head to toe. Also, my problem (you may have read recently on thread) is risk:reward. I just cannot justify having 100pip stop on a pin when the "likely reversal area" (PPZ) is only, say, 30 pips away. That to me cannot work. I can't win 3 and lose 1 and end up at breakeven in my account. Doesn't make sense. So I like 15mins/all lower frames as they "run" more, they by nature are more likely to catch a big move. To me, that makes mathematical sense.

I see you latest post 14hours ago had a 3 hour chart on it, not sure if that means you have started to use higher frames and maybe never use 5/15min anymore?

I do understand 5 mins is a bit too small, but I like the look of 15mins and you obviously did/do too!! Pinbars, outside bars, inside bars, PPZs... they all seem to work on 15mins yet everyone on the J16 thread almost hisses at you if you try to bring them up!!!

So did you do ok with them? The fact you're still trading and still active in J16 tells me you didn't do ultra bad with them? Maybe you created massive wealth with them, I don't know.

Any help you could give would be great, thanks for your time I really mean that. You can PM me back or hotmail me at

Again, thanks so much

Trig
  • #59,888
  • Apr 3, 2010 11:37am Apr 3, 2010 11:37am
the above PM was 800 characters over the limit so it was put here
  • #59,889
  • Apr 3, 2010 11:37am Apr 3, 2010 11:37am
quick thought here by myself:

Friday, the markets were closed in the USA. This is interesting because it was NFP friday.

Now, because the markets were closed, there wasn't a lot of price movement, and we have several I4B's across different pairs (way too many to list here, FXPRO feed)

Are the markets going to react to NFP on monday? IE, is this a good opportunity to place our sell stops/buy stops around these I4Bs on sunday night?

I mean I think on somepairs, the best ones, it would be wise. What say you?
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #59,890
  • Apr 3, 2010 11:37am Apr 3, 2010 11:37am
Thank you for the explanation.. So the primary importance of Pinbar is where it is located..

Just like real estate slogan - Location, Location and Location. then look at the house condition..

In the same way, first look at where it is located.

Swing high or swing low ?
At or close to PPZ?

Then look at the characterstics of the Pinbar.
  • #59,891
  • Apr 3, 2010 11:40am Apr 3, 2010 11:40am
Thanks 4X=0, and thanks for not minding me PM'ing you, the message wasn't "private" just that I aimed it at you specifically (from the "you" about 4 years ago LOL!!) and thought you may have missed it if I just posted on the thread.

Trig
  • #59,892
  • Apr 3, 2010 11:44am Apr 3, 2010 11:44am
Quoting cprao
Thank you for the explanation.. So the primary importance of Pinbar is where it is located..

Just like real estate slogan - Location, Location and Location. then look at the house condition..

In the same way, first look at where it is located.

Swing high or swing low ?
At or close to PPZ?

Then look at the characterstics of the Pinbar.
bingo
  • #59,893
  • Apr 3, 2010 11:44am Apr 3, 2010 11:44am
Quoting triggerju
Thanks 4X=0, and thanks for not minding me PM'ing you, the message wasn't "private" just that I aimed it at you specifically (from the "you" about 4 years ago LOL!!) and thought you may have missed it if I just posted on the thread.

Trig
indeed. started "trading" day 1 exactly 4 years ago. I probably would have missed it.
  • #59,894
  • Apr 3, 2010 11:49am Apr 3, 2010 11:49am
Quoting triggerju
at you specifically (from the "you" about 4 years ago LOL!!)

Trig
hey man, im not a whole lot different than the "me" 4 years ago
  • #59,895
  • Apr 3, 2010 12:04pm Apr 3, 2010 12:04pm
gonna get this up in the guest area, but figured since its going to be a holiday weekend I would post it here as well

Here is a video I made a few weeks back on a question about What is Traffic and Space

http://drop.io/hyeomjn

Have a nice weekend all

Mike
  • #59,896
  • Apr 3, 2010 12:13pm Apr 3, 2010 12:13pm
Quoting mbqb11
gonna get this up in the guest area, but figured since its going to be a holiday weekend I would post it here as well

Here is a video I made a few weeks back on a question about What is Traffic and Space

http://drop.io/hyeomjn

Have a nice weekend all

Mike
Thank you so much for the video Mike! Have a great weekend and Happy Easter.

Donnie
  • #59,897
  • Apr 3, 2010 12:21pm Apr 3, 2010 12:21pm
Quoting ghous
A bullish pin bar at a swing high and at good resistance can be a good signal short. Search through my posts with the keyword "IPB" and you'll see what I mean.

This does not qualify because of it's small shape but the location is ideal for one.

Here's an example of a better setup:

g.
the master of IPBs
  • #59,898
  • Apr 3, 2010 12:26pm Apr 3, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting mbqb11
gonna get this up in the guest area, but figured since its going to be a holiday weekend I would post it here as well

Here is a video I made a few weeks back on a question about What is Traffic and Space

http://drop.io/hyeomjn

Have a nice weekend all

Mike
thanks for the video mike

have a nice weekend
ppfx
  • #59,899
  • Apr 3, 2010 12:27pm Apr 3, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting mbqb11
gonna get this up in the guest area, but figured since its going to be a holiday weekend I would post it here as well

Here is a video I made a few weeks back on a question about What is Traffic and Space

http://drop.io/hyeomjn

Have a nice weekend all

Mike
nice job Mike, I could look over and over as such videos without to be bored, always enjoy seeing them

Wish you Happy Holidays!!
  • #59,900
  • Apr 3, 2010 12:51pm Apr 3, 2010 12:51pm
Hi, Newbie here

Typical newbie question: is 250 pips profit per month (on average) realistic, or 10% account profit per month? Trading only weekly/daily TFs
Thanks
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