Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading | Page 561 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 18,592 replies

M5 PASR Trend Trading Strat 95 replies

What you need for trading: indis, a strat & good music 27 replies

Another way to stress free, mechanic long term trading 29 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Attachments: Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
Exit Attachments

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #11,201
  • Apr 2, 2010 6:02pm Apr 2, 2010 6:02pm
Please dont think I am taking the lazy way here, I am spending every spare moment studying this thread but just want to confirm that I have this correct.

Big boss = engulfing candles on weekly/monthly chart
Boss = weekly SMA 50 and EMA 20 (plotted as 250 and 100 on 1D chart)
Worker = daily SMA 50 and EMA 20


I have another question about this system - why bother with long term averages on a daily chart? If they are used as support and resistance, isnt SMA 200 more common and reliable? People here seem to be using MA's 100 and 250 to give a vague idea of what is happening on the weekly chart - ummm, why not just LOOK at the weekly chart? surely it would give a better picture of what is happening than long term lines on the daily?
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #11,202
  • Apr 2, 2010 6:12pm Apr 2, 2010 6:12pm
Quoting No1Optimist
The term "Grail" is often bandied around on this thread, especially by Baba G.

Please explain what it means.

Also may I suggest that it be added to the list of acronyms.
Grail: the object of an extended or difficult quest. Referring to the queen, I'll leave that to your imagination. My personal definition, pertaining to trading, would be a steadily rising equity curve. Please excuse my frequent post, I may be a bit over excited about where I've found myself. Thanks Strat, thanks all, this is a wonderful thread.

T
T
  • #11,203
  • Apr 2, 2010 6:33pm Apr 2, 2010 6:33pm
Quoting tmanbone
Grail: the object of an extended or difficult quest. Referring to the queen, I'll leave that to your imagination. My personal definition, pertaining to trading, would be a steadily rising equity curve. Please excuse my frequent post, I may be a bit over excited about where I've found myself. Thanks Strat, thanks all, this is a wonderful thread.

T
Thank you for your reply. I suspect it means different things to different people.

Perhaps Strat and Baba G could enlighten us on what ""grail" means to them?
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #11,204
  • Apr 2, 2010 6:36pm Apr 2, 2010 6:36pm
Grail refers to the 'holy grail' of trading, i.e. the perfect system which always profits and never loses. Of course it doesnt exist - but people who find highly profitable systems like this one often refer to it half-jokingly as the grail.
si hoc legere scis nimium eruditionis habes
  • #11,205
  • Apr 2, 2010 7:52pm Apr 2, 2010 7:52pm
Quoting numbnuts
Please dont think I am taking the lazy way here, I am spending every spare moment studying this thread but just want to confirm that I have this correct.

Big boss = engulfing candles on weekly/monthly chart
Boss = weekly SMA 50 and EMA 20 (plotted as 250 and 100 on 1D chart)
Worker = daily SMA 50 and EMA 20


I have another question about this system - why bother with long term averages on a daily chart?...
Big Boss = monthly time frame
Boss = weekly time frame
Worker = daily time frame

We have a 20ema and a 50sma which tells us about the Daily ( these will be worker 20 & 50 ma's on the daily) on the same chart we have a 100ema and a 250sma ( these will be boss 20 & 50 ma's on the daily, for reference, and to keep from toggling back and forth ) which tells us what the BOSS is doing.

The 100ema on the Daily chart is the same as a 20ema on the Weekly (20(daily) x 5 (days in a week) = 100)
The 250sma on the Daily chart is the same as a 50sma on the Weekly (50(daily) x 5 (days in a week) = 250)

In each case, the 20 is more powerful than the 50.

From Strat's Index. Search any of NAW's post for the secret, to the index.
T
  • #11,206
  • Apr 2, 2010 9:00pm Apr 2, 2010 9:00pm
Quoting tmanbone
Big Boss = monthly time frame
Boss = weekly time frame
Worker = daily time frame...
What does that make me, an unemployed 5 min/1 tick scalper??? LOL.

Hey T, good to see you around.
  • #11,207
  • Edited 9:17pm Apr 2, 2010 9:10pm | Edited 9:17pm
Quoting N2FX
What does that make me, an unemployed 5 min/1 tick scalper??? LOL.

Hey T, good to see you around.
Sounds like the long hard road to heartache to me, I've never understood what you guys see in that. Nice to see you venturing out, you should stick around and check out what the big boys and girls are doing. You might be suprised; might even convert you. Lot's of sharp thinkers hanging around. Good to see you too. Cheers,

T
T
  • #11,208
  • Edited 9:38pm Apr 2, 2010 9:36pm | Edited 9:38pm
Quoting don555
Hello strat my first post.
I am eager to learn about trading where I can put a trade on and walk away from it.
I have tried forex intra day but do not like it.
Any other type I do not have a clue but I am willing to learn.
Can u help.
Welcome. You're at the right spot. Folks sometimes get aggravated when you ask questions before you've read the thread. You've got the key read from post #1, everything is there. It will take a while, dig in like studying a book. Strat always says don't get anxious, the market will still be here when you're ready. If after you've read and still don't understand, ask your questions they will be more likely to get attention. Hit me up any time with any questions. Cheers,

T Alright you all, sorry for going off this week, I'm done. Happy Easter
T
  • #11,209
  • Apr 2, 2010 10:10pm Apr 2, 2010 10:10pm
With a few exceptions from well known names, the posts I am reading over the last 48 hours are, simply put, utter nonsense. Please stop it.

Yes, I'll be the policeman.....for the sake of the thread.

Eyes on the price, gentleman, not the distraction. This is not social hour.
  • #11,210
  • Apr 2, 2010 10:25pm Apr 2, 2010 10:25pm
Quoting Alexandra
With a few exceptions from well known names, the posts I am reading over the last 48 hours are, simply put, utter nonsense. Please stop it.

Yes, I'll be the policeman.....for the sake of the thread.

Eyes on the price, gentleman, not the distraction. This is not social hour.

Well said Alexandra, I second that.

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #11,211
  • Apr 3, 2010 12:28am Apr 3, 2010 12:28am
Quoting Alexandra
Breaking news that Michael Jackson has died.
Beware of hypocrisy and double standards
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #11,212
  • Apr 3, 2010 12:54am Apr 3, 2010 12:54am
When the cat's away -- the mice will play.
  • #11,213
  • Apr 3, 2010 1:08am Apr 3, 2010 1:08am
Ok....

Back to business.

Starting with the USDCAD Big Boss chart:

Using your Mark I eyeball, you can see the market has been in a bearish trend for the last 12 months. On a closing basis the market has been forming lower lows and lower highs as it stairstepped down. Until being broken last month, the October 2009 hammer has been the most recent controlling candle containing all price movement for the last five months, which makes the March candle presently controlling.

Interestingly, the January 2010 hammer appeared to be putting in a double bottom when price broke above its top in February, but it was a failure and price reversed and continued to build up momentum to the downside from that level. March finally broke through the hammer and closed the month near the low of the candle. The 1.0250 major support level was also broken with good strength, which indicates a high probability of continued bearish trending action. The 20 is clearly below the 50 which adds additional reason to look for opportunities to short the market.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad m 04-02-2010.gif Size: 26 KB




Boss chart:

After establishing strong support over the last 20+ weeks, price finally closed below the 1.0250 level on candle 1 and following through the next week with new lows and a doji candle. Candle 2 saw bulls push price back up to close above the previous week's high. Candle 3 saw renewed strength by the bears who managed to push price down to close below last weeks low and establish a confirmed rejection off the 1.0250 area plus formed a weekly BEEB which indicates further bearish probability.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad w 04-02-2010.gif Size: 26 KB


Worker chart:

After breaking below support on March 10 bears pushed price down to the 1.0060 area where buying picked up again pushing price back to the 1.0250 area on March 26 forming a bullish doji (candle 1) to end the week right at previous support. Candle 2 started off Monday of last week with bears strongly in control again confirming the rejection off the now resistance level and closing clearly below the 20 ma. While this candle is more like a doji, it is still a BEEB and showing bearish momentum. Presently, price has seen increasing bearish momentum all the way down to test the March 19 lows. I shorted below bar 2 even though the bullish Boss candle had not yet been broken to the downside. Plus there was the was the big bull candle to be concerned about on March 24. The safer entry would have been to wait until the previous week's candle low had been broken at 1.0146 at candle 3. The market now appears to have more downside potential.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad d 04-02-2010.gif Size: 34 KB


  • #11,214
  • Apr 3, 2010 4:11am Apr 3, 2010 4:11am
I totally agree with you Dave! I entered in the same point as you did.Thursday I put my SL above the candle and I closed part of position because reached at double bottom (SR level on my chart)and friday news.The last part I would let it free because ,if the price will go through SR level and will show some good PA ,I will add something from what I've allready banked.Thanks.
My humble opinion.
  • #11,215
  • Apr 3, 2010 6:12am Apr 3, 2010 6:12am
Quoting No1Optimist
Beware of hypocrisy and double standards
There is a difference between a single comment from a well respected member heralding a significant event and 30 comments posted by a lurker for no other reason than hearing himself talk.
  • #11,216
  • Apr 3, 2010 6:26am Apr 3, 2010 6:26am
Quoting james_t
hi baniu

not sure if my long post on why that hammer (and tongs) on the EG daily is hugely risky (namely buying plonk into weekly 20 (20 pips away), weekly hammer has lost control now vs weekly star/weekly dark cloud cover prior to it, now forming weekly BEEB, continuing rejection at top of triangle end of feb) is here or not seems the moderators have blocked it????
Thanks for your post... wow it is so long and complicated. Personally I think you overanalyze it a bit and the simplicity is lost somewhere. Let me give an answer in a few sentences.

I'm not considering this hammer as a A++ set up but generally we are in the uptrend as BOSS and BIGBOSS are telling us, that is why I'm looking for longs...for sure I wouldn't take shorts here. I'm only considering playing long with buy stop above the top of this hammer.

What is important for me here is the PA in this swing and prior swing. See the chart attached. This also makes me think that we are in uptrend and that it could be end of corrective move.

Thanks once again,
Cheers
Baniu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp daily.gif Size: 51 KB
Trade what you see, not what you expect. BE LIKE WATER MY FRIEND.
  • #11,217
  • Apr 3, 2010 6:46am Apr 3, 2010 6:46am
Hello all,

I'll give my first go on here of a chart analysis. Most likely I have missed something and I hope I will get comments on what I might not be seeing or where I'm wrong with my thinking.

Comments will be greatly appreaciated.

EUR/JPY - I find this pair intresting currently.

Monthly - We're in the downtrend. Price has retraced after a strong down move and currently on its way to make a new lows where price was back before 2002. 20 is below 50 showing that lower prices are to be seen.

Weekly - Price this week closed right at the trendline starting from 2008/08 and also I have SR zone and psycho 128.00 wich was major support couple months back. Price was unable to break that level for half a year. Price has penetraded 20 but is still below 50. Intresting what will price do there next week.

Daily - Market has rallied after finaly breaking 125.00 SR zone. This was a strong rallie and price has broken away from daily 20 and 50 making it look streched. If this acceleration slows down we might get downward pressure just from elastic band effect.

All this looks to me now If I get bearish price action on Daily next week that this is worth the risk. Looking at weekly if price gets enaugh momentum we have potential to go all the way to 115.00 . Important levels on the way there would be Daily SR 125.00 and Weekly SR 120.50 .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpygrafikas.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #11,218
  • Apr 3, 2010 7:43am Apr 3, 2010 7:43am
Quoting james_t
don555 go to page 1 of this thread, read every post to the end TWICE at a minimum.

[color=black][font=Verdana]i have never posted here and unlikely to because i use my own short term methods (i.e. fractal trading) to actually enter the same trades as all the guys here with a much smaller SL (but hey that is another story - yes strat i know that means strictly speaking i am not trading the daily and i have to be around every 4 hours instead of daily but we can agree to disagree on this occasion). however...
If you dont mind in the future keep your insulting remarks to yourself.
Who do you think u are my comments were to strat for his help not to you.
  • #11,219
  • Edited 8:26am Apr 3, 2010 7:50am | Edited 8:26am
Thanks to Dave and Kaunasny for these Strat-style analysis posts. This is the way to see the large picture. Others can learn and comment. K, I'll use your post to highlight the need to distinguish observation from prediction. It's good to have an underlying view of course, but the price should always be followed. In the E/J case, if one is, indeed, bearish, make sure that there is suppportive PA across all time frames before placing an order. On the other hand, no harm in preparing one's mind for a trade while awaiting a confirmation. Thanks again for thinking through your posts.
  • #11,220
  • Apr 3, 2010 8:07am Apr 3, 2010 8:07am
Quoting Alexandra
With a few exceptions from well known names, the posts I am reading over the last 48 hours are, simply put, utter nonsense. Please stop it.

Yes, I'll be the policeman.....for the sake of the thread.

Eyes on the price, gentleman, not the distraction. This is not social hour.
Agreed. Thanks Alexandra.
Finally out of the shadows.
9 traders viewing now