Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

a whole lot of fliting going on....... vix flirting with 16, s&p with 1200, dow 11000, oil 100, gold 1200 but corn is still in the 3's......

speakin of 3's, less than 30 days left in the income tax effect..... makes me wonder who'll be still buying in may or maybe the better question would be who'll be left holdin the bag.........

vix is a worth watching at this point..... it also shows a commitment of traders..... h

Well I put a right dampener on the thread didn't I. No posts for 12 hours. I thought I might see a few posts telling me to shut up and get in the real world - lol

Anyway, US$ trying to bounce, as I thought it might ..... on USDX

don't think you had any type of a damper on the thread patience. i think most everyone has taken the weekend off already. there is finally nice weather, at least here anyway, and since all the banks are closed except in the u.s., most people cut out early for the weekend.

as for the info, i am unsure what it means. with all of the issues that have been dealt with in reagrds to the world's economies and still lots to deal with, there will be difficulties in getting direction on what currency gets a leg up. everyone was in bad shape. it was a question who was going to break out first. i think they all still have issues, whether fundemental or political, and unless the govt's get their cranial-rectal inversion problem solved, we might be around the same numbers next year. just my opinion.

G'day guys,
I'm in a rush to leave my home and just want to say (good nfp= strong USD) , just my thoughts

have a great day and as patience said , keep it green

hmmmm.... atr %'s ..... that would make a neat visual indicator.... we would make it in dashboard style where any/all pairs on any/all timeframes could be seen at a glance....

we would need to have both the max and current % values.... so that if the average atr was hit on monday but later retraced, we could tell....

and in the case of lower tf's, such as 4 hour, it would need to reset.....

sounds like a worthwhile friday morning project......

finally finally finally that dang usdgbp turned......h

and if the jyp don't slow down it will soon go parabolic.....h

Now that would be cool. I've seen some traders that have some kind of indicator on their chart showing some of these details but a dashboard would be awesome.

And just got a perfect hit to 200 MA on weekly chart at 87.06 on A/J.

You are lucky. It's just stopped raining cats 'n dogs over here. Miserable weather as usual but at least we don't have snow like Scotland.

I see you have been vouched by Turveyd. You must have tried your hand at scalping. How have you found it?

Hi Jack,

Saw your post...you don't have PM priviledges yet so I'll post the trial login for you here.

Username: dfxplus
Password: Gbpusd0410

Login: plus.dailyfx.com

If you have questions for me, please visit my thread http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=186871 . I try not to venture too far from the Commercial/Broker area

Great analysis Patience and all!

-Jason

it seems I didn't miss much, I left 2 E/U short and 2 U/Chf long open after the nfp and now closing them with +50*2 pips on E/U short and +30*2 on U/Chf long, i wont post them on the first page as we didn't discuss them here,however I wrote a quick note explaining my view.

U/J long, which has been my favorite this week

those who followed my thread know that how confidence I had for U/J short , I took 6 long at 92.94 the first TP was 94.88 and 2nd 97 , the first target is missed by 20 pips, I'm closing 2 of the positions at 94.54 (+170 pips * 2)
will leave 4 long open targeting 97 , I wrote before Apri 8-9 but now I saw I didn't consider the weekend on the chart (ab=cd should be equal in pips and time) so I think Fri next week or sooner we get to 97.

here are my thoughts process as we discussed through the week.

U/Cad update,

sometimes it's easy to predict the moves other times it's difficult, this one moved as I expected.

I updated the first page, half of long U/Cad and short G/J were closed last night due to my strategy of exposure reduction before NFP ,

atm open position

Long U/Cad 1.0085 SL=1.0055
Short G/J 143.50 SL=144.50
Long U/J 92.94 SL>B/E
Short A/U .9200 SL=.9220

will post new trade suggestions after looking at the new COT report & index during weekend.

have a good weekend

I just read articles on " announcement by the Fed to hold a meeting “under expedited procedures” at 15:30GMT on Monday,on the subject of a review and determination by the Board of Governors of the advance and discount rates to be charged by Federal Reserve Banks"

you can find the articles on fx360 or dailyfx , if you remember couple of weeks ago when Fed surprisingly raised discount rates , USD strengthened all over the board.

I dont like to enter on Fri late hr after NFP and Mon Euro and CAD bank holiday , but I took short on E/U current level 1.3488 SL=1.36 will post my analysis soon

please note that a long against S at 1.3460 seems reasonable too considering the RRR and hidden bullish Div,
may be I'm biased ;

my trade; short 1.3488 SL=1.3600
TP 1.33 & 1.30

for those like going long E/U take this

E/U long 1.3500 ( I'm -12 in 5 min ,lol) ,SL=1.3460 TP 1.36 & 1.38

Hi Shahab...

Here is my first attempt at the GBPUSD.

We Have data for large traders:

Weekending |Net Positions |COT Index

2/4/10 | -67,070 |8.84
26/3/10 |-71,624 |0.00
19/3/10 |-63,987 |7.52
12/3/10 |-63,473 |8.60
5/3/10 | -67,549 |0.00

So in the last 5 weeks we've had two extreme COT short readings at 0.00 and we have net positions that are negative which means the large traders are selling although we are less negative on 2/4/10 than we were on 26/3/10. I did note that both times we had extreme short readings on the COT at 0.00 the price moved up on 2/3/10 and 26/3/10. Now the COT numbers are going positive and the nets are less negative so I would think that we might have a basis to the long side this coming week.

I've attached my 4hr chart and I see we've had a pullback to a support area @ 1.5116. We also have a resistance @ 1.5350 which has been tested in early March. Based on what I see on the 4hr chart you could take a long position to the 1.5350 resistance area or you could wait until price gets to the 1.5350 resistance area and look for a rejection and a short which would be rejoining the major trend which is short.

Any feedback would be appreciated.

Hi Dave,
you did a good job on writing a COT report this week so I skip this part while I need to add a few things.

net positioning :SHORT G/U
COT index: bearish extreme

sum up: G/U is in a critical point (if it breaks through 1.54, bullish, if not keep the bearish bias)

I think there are two possible scenario ;
1- Bearish :G/U is making a triangle as 4th wave,
2-Bullish :G/U completed the 5th wave as truncation.

I maintain the breaish bias as far as R at 1.5387 (1.54) holds as I wrote in the chart 1.54 can be the neckline of a possible double bottom. so above that I'm bullish

U/J

I posted last week COT chart for comparison

U/J as I expected the net positioning shifted to net short J/U (long U/J)
from +10,161 to - 30,866 , now the large institures are net short J/U (long U/J)
note that COT index gives us extreme reading when the is a shift in net position the COT index is extreme - we go with the crowd here

sum up:U/J bullish

COT E/U:

the net positioning in E/U is getting more intense and I should add I was surprised when I saw the no . large institute added to their short E/U contracts from 74,917 to -85,326 (that's a record low in 2 years)
COT: extreme bearish (0)
Short/Long Ratio:3.42

sum up: trend is down but the risk of a larger upward correction is high.

Thanks for that Jason. I get quite a few PM's asking me how to access the SSI and I always refer them to you. Maybe if you pop back into the thread you can let us know if this username has a time limit on it. I actually emailed FXCM customer services and asked them for these details for myself so that I didn't have to go through the platform to access it but they only changed the password on my platform so I'm none the wiser as to what my username and password are.

I don't know if you guys want me to keep posting the SSI in the thread as you can now access it yourselves but I'll just post Friday night's SSI anyway.

SSI: Retail Traders Ease off Anti-Dollar Positioning after Friday’s Strong NFPs
Friday, 02 Apr 2010 18:18 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.23 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.69 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.1% higher than yesterday and 4.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 17.0% lower than yesterday and 9.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.4% weaker than yesterday and 0.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

SSI Details:

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.25 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.51 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.1% higher than yesterday and 25.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 12.7% lower than yesterday and 46.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.6% weaker than yesterday and 2.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.62 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.45 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 12.3% lower than yesterday and 17.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.3% lower than yesterday and 12.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.4% weaker than yesterday and 2.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at -1.62 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.18 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.0% lower than yesterday and 8.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 17.5% higher than yesterday and 25.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.1% stronger than yesterday and 6.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 3.46 as nearly 78% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.45 as 78% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.0% higher than yesterday and 48.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.2% lower than yesterday and 26.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.0% weaker than yesterday and 1.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 1.94 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.84 as 74% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.0% lower than yesterday and 51.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 23.2% higher than yesterday and 0.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.8% weaker than yesterday and 37.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.66 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.28 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 21.9% lower than yesterday and 28.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.6% higher than yesterday and 35.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.7% weaker than yesterday and 2.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.12 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.1% lower than yesterday and 16.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 8.2% lower than yesterday and 3.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.2% weaker than yesterday and 9.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

USDX Monthly

Things are a little confusing at the moment with all the currencies because we appear to be moving back to what the market is usually about - yield and interest rate expectations rather than risk aversion and it is being reflected in most of the currencies with the Yen becoming the favoured carry trade again, EUR weakening, CAD strengthening, AUD just a monster that doesn't want to go down and NZD just hanging on in there etc.

I was just looking at the USDX monthly chart and we are at a point where there has been support/resistance etc in the past. For the US$ to move significantly higher I think we are going to need more of a commitment from the Fed about raising interest rates and/or the next what NewstraderFX called the "MFE" (major fundamental event). You can see on the chart that in the past we have flirted around this area for some months. We could see the same thing happening again.