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AUD/USD

  • #20,781
  • Apr 1, 2010 5:03pm Apr 1, 2010 5:03pm
two contradicting trend lines

aud/usd
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eur/aud
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  • #20,782
  • Apr 1, 2010 6:39pm Apr 1, 2010 6:39pm
What do you think of this Clouds...vertical line is daily open.

I think it wants to go up bigtime, but that TL is pretty unfriendly.
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  • #20,783
  • Apr 1, 2010 6:43pm Apr 1, 2010 6:43pm
Quoting Saxon
See Chart
I also "want" to see it fall from there... however if I take a look at the weekly and monthly it's a little bit scary.

There's a clear double top on H4 each formed by triple tops... but due to NFP's volatility and that price won't be moving much away 9200 tonight and tomorrow because there won't be any other markets open (banks) except for Asian, USA could make a push towards upper trendline and break (bull trap?) to sell then at better prices IF numbers are positive.

Don't want to think yet what can happen if they are on the negative side...
  • #20,784
  • Apr 1, 2010 7:04pm Apr 1, 2010 7:04pm
Quoting doblece
I also "want" to see it fall from there... however if I take a look at the weekly and monthly it's a little bit scary.

There's a clear double top on H4 each formed by triple tops... but due to NFP's volatility and that price won't be moving much away 9200 tonight and tomorrow because there won't be any other markets open (banks) except for Asian, USA could make a push towards upper trendline and break (bull trap?) to sell then at better prices IF numbers are positive.

Don't want to think yet what can happen if they are on the negative side......
Ya. I am just sitting here watching the daily candle form, pretty small. The holiday will make things interesting.
  • #20,785
  • Apr 1, 2010 7:48pm Apr 1, 2010 7:48pm
I don't believe that this is the top. PA up here on the M15 is not shaping up like a top looks like. Monthly and Weekly charts look much too bullish with PA above key 5ma levels.

I see it forming this triangle type pattern and breaking to the upside. Will be interesting though to see what the Holiday and Non-Farms news does to this.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,786
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:55pm Apr 1, 2010 8:55pm
Quoting sinner-
What do you think of this Clouds...vertical line is daily open.

I think it wants to go up bigtime, but that TL is pretty unfriendly.
could be range bounce .92-.90 for a while
  • #20,787
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:02pm Apr 1, 2010 9:02pm
Quoting MarcVUM
I don't believe that this is the top. PA up here on the M15 is not shaping up like a top looks like. Monthly and Weekly charts look much too bullish with PA above key 5ma levels.

I see it forming this triangle type pattern and breaking to the upside. Will be interesting though to see what the Holiday and Non-Farms news does to this.
I see your triangle (drawn black), and agree, that is bullish.

But, look where yesterdays volume came in... pretty large resistance confluence. 78.6 fib of the 090832-09000 move.
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  • #20,788
  • Apr 1, 2010 11:53pm Apr 1, 2010 11:53pm
Quoting sinner-
I see your triangle (drawn black), and agree, that is bullish.

But, look where yesterdays volume came in... pretty large resistance confluence. 78.6 fib of the 090832-09000 move.

i can see a very strong resistance there and in fact a double top it will go down and re test the neckline and if it won't be successful then it will be heading north. check 4H TF or 1D TF for further direction or have a better market structure (picture). go with the flow, don't predict PA.

p.s. volume is irrelevant in spot forex, cannot use as indicator in forex. there's no basis at all how they get volume data in forex
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #20,789
  • Apr 1, 2010 11:57pm Apr 1, 2010 11:57pm
Quoting Clouds
could be range bounce .92-.90 for a while
nobody knows don't make a forecast or prediction for doing so is just gambling. why not try to find a crystal ball instead just kidding.
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #20,790
  • Apr 2, 2010 12:00am Apr 2, 2010 12:00am
Quoting MarcVUM
I don't believe that this is the top. PA up here on the M15 is not shaping up like a top looks like. Monthly and Weekly charts look much too bullish with PA above key 5ma levels.

I see it forming this triangle type pattern and breaking to the upside. Will be interesting though to see what the Holiday and Non-Farms news does to this.
i agree with you my friend, predicting tops and bottoms is a guessing game guessing and hoping in forex trading is a traders demons feel the markets pulse and movements and just go with the flow. pattern formation can be used as confirmation and in-depth analysis of PA's current behaviour and you can capitalize on those.

p.s. capital preservation is a must!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #20,791
  • Apr 2, 2010 12:03am Apr 2, 2010 12:03am
Anybody else setting up some orders before the NFP's?

I'm setting ups some GBP and EUD shorts (if those happen to pop, as I don't mind giving myself plenty of time in the days/weeks to come to ride them back down); I also like some short AUD if that pops around 0.9250... aside from that, I'm hedging a few positions going in to play it safe... only really looking to add to my long USD positions if possible and then close some of those and possibly reloading them depending on the moves we get.... all rather small positions (that can add up) so that I'm able to sleep tonight! lol
  • #20,792
  • Apr 2, 2010 12:18am Apr 2, 2010 12:18am
Quoting thadakman
Anybody else setting up some orders before the NFP's?

I'm setting ups some GBP and EUD shorts (if those happen to pop, as I don't mind giving myself plenty of time in the days/weeks to come to ride them back down); I also like some short AUD if that pops around 0.9250... aside from that, I'm hedging a few positions going in to play it safe... only really looking to add to my long USD positions if possible and then close some of those and possibly reloading them depending on the moves we get.... all rather small positions (that can add up) so...
Hi,

i am still feeling the pulse of gbp/usd, i am still letting 1 small position running because based on my research and my gathered data, us still in recession and even they've shown a little bit of strength lately but to me it's not enought to make a big impact or "wow factor" to accelerate the push of us dollars (check usindex too) be watchfull with the news release though for it might trigger mix emotion from traders and might be enough to stir PA crazy - but eventually it will go back to it's original trend.

my approach to this is set up a breakout strategy.

for me i will just put an entry order(short) to whatever low of the previous 5 minhute candle prior for the news release and i will let my long runs - with a very thight and close eyeballing of my position.

money management is the key for capital preservation!

happy trading to all.
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #20,793
  • Apr 2, 2010 12:23am Apr 2, 2010 12:23am
Quoting thadakman
Anybody else setting up some orders before the NFP's?

I'm setting ups some GBP and EUD shorts (if those happen to pop, as I don't mind giving myself plenty of time in the days/weeks to come to ride them back down); I also like some short AUD if that pops around 0.9250... aside from that, I'm hedging a few positions going in to play it safe... only really looking to add to my long USD positions if possible and then close some of those and possibly reloading them depending on the moves we get.... all rather small positions (that can add up) so...
Hi,

you've mentioned you are also hedging at the moment, if you won't mind me asking, what is your current position and what pair/s you're trading?

usd is loosing steam at the moment. thinking of trading, i guess against the greenbucks, i will enter long for a very short time frame... say 1H and liquidate just before news.

be good.
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #20,794
  • Apr 2, 2010 12:29am Apr 2, 2010 12:29am
Quoting Saxon
See Chart
Yep, I do share your view. In fact, I see a forming of a double top. Nice boobies uncovered as we go by the hours haha!
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  • #20,795
  • Apr 2, 2010 12:42am Apr 2, 2010 12:42am
Quoting dongsky
Hi,

you've mentioned you are also hedging at the moment, if you won't mind me asking, what is your current position and what pair/s you're trading?
Overall, I'm long USD (long-term? heck no! But short/medium term? yup!)

Right now I have small positions short EUR/USD and short GBP/USD (incrementally scaling in... I have some of the EUR I want to let go at 1.34, 1.33 and then 1.3025; I also scale out)... GBP I'm letting most go under 1.50 and plan to reload in increments over 1.50 again... long-term, I think GBP goes to 1.35 though.

And of course I'm in AUD, short at several levels and closed out some small long positions that I've picked up while patiently waiting for this thing to go back down. lol

As far as hedging, I've paused my GBP/JPY position at 142 (initially loaded at the triple top on 139 and a little more at 140; so I was able to pause that last 150 pip move, let go part of my hedge at 143.50 (luckily near the top and locked in some profits; just hoping to pare the loss on the downside now and even possibly lock in profits... it may take a while though) hoping to get re-hedged under 143 and pause the trade again (by hedging, and plan to release the longs at 144.50 and 145; then possibly reload to be safe as I see 147's being the absolute top; if it never gets there I'll just release the longs on any pops on the way back down)...

but regardless, since this is a particular play that hasn't been profitable for me (yet anyway), I'm figure I'll just sleep better at night (being fully hedged pre-NFP)... the weak YEN equation is out for me though, as I've been long USD/JPY for a little while (didn't catch the whole move, but made several smaller-medium range-sized pips on the upmove and am currently longer than I am short on that trade (partially hedged, but with a long bias on USD/JPY; hoping to close out both sides with some profit tomorrow though).
  • #20,796
  • Apr 2, 2010 1:08am Apr 2, 2010 1:08am
Quoting George C
So, now, what are the odds of a double top pattern forming on the daily?
I see a broad down channel ..
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  • #20,797
  • Apr 2, 2010 1:19am Apr 2, 2010 1:19am
Quoting john123x
same broker, or different broker for live and demo?

the interest rate aint fixed, it may rise or drop depends on the economy
thank you john,
same broker for both live and demo.
int rate might change sometime, but the situation i noticed happened in the same night. so i dont know what's wrong
  • #20,798
  • Apr 2, 2010 1:35am Apr 2, 2010 1:35am
Quoting sachin_syd
I see a broad down channel ..
yes, with a double top and also a visible channel that's rather solid I observe. I will however, enter once it is more confirmed.

But I can see the bears have some potential growling strength ready to be unleashed. mmmm! mmmm....
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  • #20,799
  • Apr 2, 2010 1:42am Apr 2, 2010 1:42am
Tomorrow will be a big day, NFP can push this thing over the bearish daily TL. Money be made or lost tomorrow.
I find it interesting that 9200 has held several times this week, and we haven't seen a big move down; As if Traders are positioning for a Bullish breakout tomorrow on good NFP report.
  • #20,800
  • Apr 2, 2010 2:03am Apr 2, 2010 2:03am
Quoting thadakman
Overall, I'm long USD (long-term? heck no! But short/medium term? yup!)

Right now I have small positions short EUR/USD and short GBP/USD (incrementally scaling in... I have some of the EUR I want to let go at 1.34, 1.33 and then 1.3025; I also scale out)... GBP I'm letting most go under 1.50 and plan to reload in increments over 1.50 again... long-term, I think GBP goes to 1.35 though.

And of course I'm in AUD, short at several levels and closed out some small long positions that I've picked up while patiently waiting for this thing to go back...
Hi,

the way i read you, you have a very sound strategy there hedging, and yes i agree with you, just a short term is best position at the moment
i closed all my position with aussie pairs because of the volatility (due to holidays) but since gbp still has the upward momentum, i closed 2 position and let 1 small position stay running. HEDGING, hmmm although i honestly haven't tried but it's very probable lossing strategy. might be trying hedge when the market comes to be active again. but for now, i'm happy watching my position with care.

hoping you all the best bro, and may the pips be with you...& me
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
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