Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

U/J should retest 93.50 again ,may be more G/U down move, but who knows, we try to set the right order the right place. if it shoots way higher from here lets say, 144 ish there is still chance to close and get out at retracement

Hi Shahab8b,

Are you into EUR/JPY? Any view ?

Thanks.

In the words of Gordon Ramsay "Done" - lol. It was a struggle though.

Do you think it was me confusing mrtmth with random gap trades - rofl

hi siewhf, here you go E/J
I wanted to take long which I couldnt , no short E/J for me till 129

right mate.. some setups just call for a trade. That is one of them I think.
But I will set SL to break even if we found the right direction (as you also suggested).
G/J used to drive me nuts..retracing 100pips and shooting right up again.
so let's see

it will come down from there, whether 50 pips or 200 ,the monster didnt retrace a single pip in 3 days

Thanks for your view.

Are you hoping for the "final drop" on that one or just for a retrace for now?
This week has been a rollercoaster.. still driven by speculation over a possible rate hike I think.
So it could go on like that until de decision next week

retrace.

as a general rule I try to lighten up my overall exposure till 8 am NY before NFP,
try to close the losers and SL>B/E on solid winners

SSI: USDCHF Retail Longs Drop 55% after Suspected SNB Intervention
Thursday, 01 Apr 2010 17:43 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.63 as nearly 72% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.51 as 85% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 55.4% lower than yesterday and 40.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.6% lower than yesterday and 46.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 47.9% weaker than yesterday and 37.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.59 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.49 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.8% lower than yesterday and 27.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.8% lower than yesterday and 56.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.2% weaker than yesterday and 5.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.26 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 37.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.5% higher than yesterday and 67.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.7% stronger than yesterday and 2.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.36 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.22 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 10.2% lower than yesterday and 7.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.3% lower than yesterday and 18.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.8% weaker than yesterday and 1.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at -1.15 as nearly 53% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.42 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 12.4% higher than yesterday and 3.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.0% lower than yesterday and 3.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 3.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 3.39 as nearly 77% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.45 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.0% higher than yesterday and 25.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 16.3% lower than yesterday and 37.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.7% stronger than yesterday and 0.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.28 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.56 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 19.2% higher than yesterday and 8.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.7% lower than yesterday and 8.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.5% stronger than yesterday and 7.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.07 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.3% lower than yesterday and 6.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 8.3% lower than yesterday and 0.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.9% weaker than yesterday and 4.2% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

USDX Daily

did demo trade on g/j and a/u. i have to go back and see what signals you use and do some chart research so i understand why you trade the way you do. i was never a pro trader, and had traders trade for me, but of course they all lost all my money, $60,000 over the years, alot of that was profits. so i am doing it myself. maybe it is stupid, but at least i will know why i lose my money instead of losing it and hearing,"the market went against us". no the market went against me, they still made the comission!!

i learn quick, but i ask alot of questions. i have to understand what you are doing. you may understand it, but if i do not see what you are seeing, it will not matter. i know sometimes it will be irritating with the questions, but i woud appreciate the tolerance.

shoot your questions then

what tf do you trade with??

how do you do your fib's?? i have heard some different methods from different traders on here, so i am completely confused about how to even use them.

if you have a template, that would be easier to copy.

what is your feeling of stochs??

do you have specific times of the day you trade??

let's start with these for now. thanks

what tf do you trade with?? 4Hr mainly, take a look at Hr, daily and weekly to get the clue

how do you do your fib's??

from bottom to top in uptrend (100 bottom, 0 top) and visa versa,

if you have a template, that would be easier to copy.

no template but two charts for each pair
1-a naked charts where I draw what I see S/R fib ,patterns
2- a chart with 1- weekly Pivot indicator 2-daily pivot indicator 3-RSI-4-True MACD-5-LSR indicator

what is your feeling of stochs?? no stochs for me, I like RSI

do you have specific times of the day you trade?? best Time to tade 2 hrs before NY open and between 1 PM to 3 PM NY- no Fri after 9 am NY hopefully

let's start with these for now. thanks

thanx for the update patience, SNB finally intervened after I lost couple of thousands on U/Chf trade ,those guys are not reliable ,do you remember one night they terrorized traders at 4am Switzerland time.
btw, did you look at A/J to the moon and beyond

G/J:
Been away from my charts for some time now. that beast ist still struggling at the same levels.
So not the quick retracement. still need to be a bit patient as it seems.
hopefully it doesn't act as yesterday when it struggled with the 142 area..and that shooted through it. But our entry seems to be more solid.

U/C:
Did your second limit order for the CAD get filled now?
My low was 1.00658
so missed by 0.8pips for me

Silver

after Suspected SNB Intervention .... suspected???..... wonder who else is under suspicion....

that's a reporter like saying, "the river is at flood stage, rain is suspected".......

wouldn't hurt my feeling if the snb was suspected again tommorrow......h

Took their time though aye. I'm out of soldiers on A/J, bought them all home safely to the barracks. I'm not comfortable deploying any more at these levels and I'm not favouring shorting either.

Just looking at average weekly ATR's for the last 52 weeks. A/U is about 84 pips below, E/U 100 pips below and U/Cad the same. U/Chf and Cable have basically done their ATR and U/J about 50 pips below. What am I trying to say? Well my charts aren't looking particularly bearish for any of these pairs and if it wasn't for NFP tomorrow (and the fear of SNB intervention) I would have said there was quite a good chance we could see 93.00/20 on A/U, parity on CAD, back to this week's lows for CHF, 94.50 for U/J and 1.3680 for E/U. Sentiment is also backing USD weakness. The only thing I can see in the US$'s favour at the moment is a bounce off my lower trendline on daily USDX and/or bounce off 200 MA on 4 hour chart at 80.62 (we are currently at 80.72). But it is NFP and public holiday, and as we all know, anything can happen

Keep it green