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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,101
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:38am Apr 1, 2010 9:38am
for those with strong hear short G/J, now, will post the chart
  • #1,102
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:38am Apr 1, 2010 9:38am
its just 10-15 more pips from the other order shabab!

by the way i will be letting usdcad run long back to 04 hopefully. dont intend to close it at 170.

Quoting shahab8b
we didnt pick it
  • #1,103
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:39am Apr 1, 2010 9:39am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Tuner I think you have made more than 500 pips in 2 weeks right? with this U/Chf trade ,I wish I had not given up on long U/Chf
Not really. actually my last to weeks show still a negative result.
Last week had some nice results but this week was really bad for me...

The U/CHF from Friday was closed for +10 (after we had opened with that huge gap down)
The U/CHF from yesterday hit SL (-80) today
+some more losses on the AUD this week.

The nice profit was today on the EUR/CHF with the +190
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,104
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:41am Apr 1, 2010 9:41am
usdchf might well drop to 0500 when it will be worth buying. atleast i will be.

Quoting Tuner
Not really. actually my last to weeks show still a negative result.
Last week had some nice results but this week was really bad for me...

The U/CHF from Friday was closed for +10 (after we had opened with that huge gap down)
The U/CHF from yesterday hit SL (-80) today
+some more losses on the AUD this week.

The nice profit was today on the EUR/CHF with the +190
  • #1,105
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:42am Apr 1, 2010 9:42am
G/J
perfect setting
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1b.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #1,106
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:44am Apr 1, 2010 9:44am
Quoting shahab8b
for those with strong hear short G/J, now, will post the chart
Agree, we seemed to stop dead at big resisatnce at 143.62; unless we get a break over mid 147.00's, the long-term bearishness should still be intanct!

Hard to say with overall YEN weakness though.
  • #1,107
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:45am Apr 1, 2010 9:45am
Quoting thadakman
Agree, we seemed to stop dead at big resisatnce at 143.62; unless we get a break over mid 147.00's, the long-term bearishness should still be intanct!

Hard to say with overall YEN weakness though.
nop, not at all, this is a new bull trend, shorting the retracement , due to bull cycle of U/J
  • #1,108
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:47am Apr 1, 2010 9:47am
Quoting thadakman
Agree, we seemed to stop dead at big resisatnce at 143.62; unless we get a break over mid 147.00's, the long-term bearishness should still be intanct!

Hard to say with overall YEN weakness though.
mate, take a look at my previous posts regarding U/J
  • #1,109
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:48am Apr 1, 2010 9:48am
shabab are you short on au?
  • #1,110
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:49am Apr 1, 2010 9:49am
who is short G/j?
  • #1,111
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:49am Apr 1, 2010 9:49am
Quoting coolshades
shabab are you short on au?
yes .92- SL=.9220
  • #1,112
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:53am Apr 1, 2010 9:53am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
who is short G/j?
I am ... Looks really a solid entry.
will it come down to the daily pivot around 142... or what's your target on that one?
edit: I meant.. daily pivot 141.20.. or 142 area?
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,113
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:55am Apr 1, 2010 9:55am
moi too. thats a great resistance line.
Quoting Tuner
I am ... Looks really a solid entry.
will it come down to the daily pivot around 142... or what's your target on that one?
  • #1,114
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:56am Apr 1, 2010 9:56am
U/J long over +100 *3 so far ,97 by April 8-9 or later next week
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: uja9.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #1,115
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:57am Apr 1, 2010 9:57am
Quoting Tuner
I am ... Looks really a solid entry.
will it come down to the daily pivot around 142... or what's your target on that one?
edit: I meant.. daily pivot 141.20.. or 142 area?
I'm working on it, will post soon
  • #1,116
  • Apr 1, 2010 10:00am Apr 1, 2010 10:00am
There is also down trend-line on the daily timeframe. which is now resistance
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #1,117
  • Apr 1, 2010 10:02am Apr 1, 2010 10:02am
hourly candle closed as a pin right on top of s/r line at 3566 ish
  • #1,118
  • Apr 1, 2010 10:07am Apr 1, 2010 10:07am
G/J
shorts has been taken at 143.50 -47-46 SL=144.50
1TP= 23% fib at 141 2nd 139.50

when we get +50-60 pips on this short move SL to B/E
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj1c.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #1,119
  • Apr 1, 2010 10:13am Apr 1, 2010 10:13am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
G/J
shorts has been taken at 143.50 -47-46 SL=144.50
1TP= 23% fib at 141 2nd 139.50
we know that pair can move a lot and has nice retraces.
So see if that will work out.

but as you are still bullish on U/J that should limit the downside for now , doesn't it?
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,120
  • Apr 1, 2010 10:15am Apr 1, 2010 10:15am
Quoting shahab8b
mate, take a look at my previous posts regarding U/J
I agree USD/JPY has a lot of room to run, but indivually, I see the GBP dropping a lot more than the JPY; therefore, I'm bearish GBP/JPY cross; hedged with a long USD/JPY position.

I just think there's too much overall complacency in the market, with the VIX in the 16's and the DOW about to breach 11,000; any sort of risk aversion should sell off the YEN crosses pretty hard (if only for a couple of days even).
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