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Simple & Consistent Fibbing Method

  • #761
  • Apr 1, 2010 10:08am Apr 1, 2010 10:08am
Quoting aftab
Hi Simone,

I hope you do not mind me sharing two filter that I use with your method.

1. The trendline; and
2. The Gartley that needs to complete before price comes back to the trendline.

Please see two trades I took today with very small stops and as a result larger Risk:Reward ratios. These risk:reward ratios have been calculated to the 1.340 only - if calculated to the 1.550 (very often reached when trades are taken after the gartlies) - they work out even better.

1. AUD; and
2. CAD trades
Not at all aftab...2 heads are better than one . Thanks very much for sharing!
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  • #762
  • Edited 2:36pm Apr 1, 2010 1:44pm | Edited 2:36pm
Very Interesting Week. We now have a possible Bull flag forming above the weekly 50% level at 1.5265. Out of shorts here. Long setup.
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  • #763
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:59pm Apr 1, 2010 1:59pm
http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/4863/aprlevels.jpg
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  • #764
  • Apr 1, 2010 4:43pm Apr 1, 2010 4:43pm
Quoting Vark
I was going over today's day (in retrospective) and found pretty much just one trade.
My intraday fib was fibbed from 12:00 to 7:00 EST (I was assuming, that would have been my start time, so I missed that nice up move between 3:45 and 5:15 candles). It was fibbed first to 5:15 candle (1.5177) and since we had a pullback past 80.9 after 8:15 candle, I adjusted it to there (1.5185). The high was broken at 12:45 with a pullback, so I adjusted it again and ultimately ended on a 8:30pm candle (1.5239). That high held into the 1st, so it was high of...
Hi Vark,

If you started at 7:00pm EST, then your intraday fib would need to be drawn from the high of the 12:45pm candle to the low of the 2:30am candle. The final adjustment for that fib was to the 8:30pm candle. Since this high and low were unbroken up until 11:59pm EST, this fib would no longer be intraday but now the daily fib which would be used to project today's targets.
I am seeing the trade that you took. You shorted off the resistance of the 8:30pm to 6:30 swing correct?
Yes we bought on support from the pullback at 10:30pm, that would be correct.
Also looking at your chart, the low of your 50% fib would have been at 1.5118.
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  • #765
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:55pm Apr 1, 2010 9:55pm
Quoting simoneg
Hi Vark,

If you started at 7:00pm EST, then your intraday fib would need to be drawn from the high of the 12:45pm candle to the low of the 2:30am candle. The final adjustment for that fib was to the 8:30pm candle. Since this high and low were unbroken up until 11:59pm EST, this fib would no longer be intraday but now the daily fib which would be used to project today's targets.
I am seeing the trade that you took. You shorted off the resistance of the 8:30pm to 6:30 swing correct?
Yes we bought on support from the pullback at 10:30pm, that would...
cool, thanks. Now I ned to learn how to see the big picture: last day and week and last major swing fibs.
  • #766
  • Apr 2, 2010 3:46pm Apr 2, 2010 3:46pm
Hi All,

Here are two excellent threads on Support and Resistance:

Support and Resistance Simplified
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=219561

No Brainer Trades
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=86429


Enjoy the Holidays!
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  • #767
  • Apr 3, 2010 10:59am Apr 3, 2010 10:59am
Quoting aftab
Hi Simone,

I hope you do not mind me sharing two filter that I use with your method.

1. The trendline; and
2. The Gartley that needs to complete before price comes back to the trendline.

Please see two trades I took today with very small stops and as a result larger Risk:Reward ratios. These risk:reward ratios have been calculated to the 1.340 only - if calculated to the 1.550 (very often reached when trades are taken after the gartlies) - they work out even better.

1. AUD; and
2. CAD trades

Aftab...I concurr!!! :nerd:
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  • #768
  • Apr 4, 2010 11:38am Apr 4, 2010 11:38am
Aftab, could you explain about that Gartley? We are all looking to minimize our risk, don't we?
  • #769
  • Apr 4, 2010 1:14pm Apr 4, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting Vark
Aftab, could you explain about that Gartley? We are all looking to minimize our risk, don't we?
Hi Aftab,

Whilst you await further info from Vark, frankkn had shared this link with us earlier... http://harmonictrader.com/price_patterns.htm
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  • #770
  • Edited Apr 5, 2010 8:12am Apr 4, 2010 1:20pm | Edited Apr 5, 2010 8:12am
Hi Everyone,

We will begin this week's analysis by looking at the EUR/USD.

Higher highs and lows continue to be created on this pair and we are currently at the bottom of the trading channel at support at 1.3475, hitting the trendline for the third time. Additionally a large ABC swing has been created on the H1 chart. A=1.3266, B=1.3535, C=1.3383. This swing is expected to terminate at 1.3700 or 1.3750 or 1.3800 or 1.3960. For those trading Gartley and Butterfly patterns a number of patterns also complete at the mentioned levels.

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/6041/euab.jpg


Levels and Targets for April
Looking at the pair, we see where we could be targetting the 1.4000 area should bullish movement continue, as such we may experience a dip to lower support at 1.3420 or 1.3990 to allow for further buying should buying interest continue.
http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/7600/euapr.jpg

Levels and Targets for this week
Given that this week's Bull Targets converge with our first expected D and the top of the trading channel, we should pay attention to this area, should we get there.

http://img641.imageshack.us/img641/6169/eurthisweek.jpg
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  • #771
  • Edited 3:28pm Apr 4, 2010 2:46pm | Edited 3:28pm
We have closed last week bouncing of the bottom of the weekly trading channel with a strong Morning Star candle pattern. This is also the third bounce off the upward trendline which can lead to much buying.

Weekly Chart
http://img717.imageshack.us/img717/6...eeklychart.jpg


Levels and Targets for April
This pair is still bullish, and only just began pulling back on Friday, stopping at strong support at 1.5180. We are currently trading above the monthly long level at 1.5150 with support immediately below at 1.5130.

http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/3396/guapr.jpg

Levels and Targets for this Week
We have not had much pullback/retracement since the GU started buying and so we may have further pulling back to facilitate buying. The 1.5130-50 area should be watched as we have strong support at this level. We need to pay attention also to the resistance at 1.5230 & 1.5260 as these levels may attract sellers.

http://img224.imageshack.us/img224/8731/guthisweek.jpg
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  • #772
  • Apr 5, 2010 10:12pm Apr 5, 2010 10:12pm
I took a couple of trades late this morning today; I had a long on a 9:30 candle, but chickened out for a total of +12 pips, After that I saw a nice setup on EU, so I jumped on a 11:30 with short with a trailing stop and got that one for another +10. Then I took a short position on a 12pm candle GU, assuming it would just be a small retrace candle, since the 11:45 candle closed below 50% of a 5230 to 5317 up move, that I used for a 50% fib, but it reversed and I got stopped out. Luckily I was not sure in that trade, so put a 10 pip SL, result -10 pips. I think I didn't pay attention to PA on that one, because 11:45 candle went all the way to 5261 and then came beck up 10 pips before closing. I guess that was a sign of bulls getting into play, and they did, we had a reversal after that.
overall +12 pips on some late action.

I think I am starting to understand the entry points - learning from my mistakes and success (I have taken trades before, following this system, but didn't post much) but the exits is still a shot in the dark for me - the first trade I took on GU today I entered on a 9:30 candle at 5276 and exited on the same candle at 5288, as soon as I saw it started to fall. Have I stayed in the trade, I could've gotten another 10-20 pips, but I had no idea of telling it will go that high - it was a lot of selling pressure, long shadows on candles and so on.
  • #773
  • Apr 6, 2010 7:25am Apr 6, 2010 7:25am
Good Morning Everyone,

As anticipated, the EU pulled back to support at 1.3390 and GU to 1.5130. These are levels that could trigger the resumption of strong bullish movement. Buying at these support levels are good entries.

Charts for today will follow.
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  • #774
  • Apr 6, 2010 8:11am Apr 6, 2010 8:11am
The EU has dipped lower and has hit both bear targets for today. Also it has completed a possible ABCD swing and can lead to buying from the 1.3360 area.
1.3470 is our likely target area should we buy off this level.

http://img200.imageshack.us/img200/7315/eu2day.jpg
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  • #775
  • Apr 6, 2010 11:35am Apr 6, 2010 11:35am
I think I just post it here for educational purposes, ok?

OK, this morning on GU you said you entered long on a 8:45 candle @5157. What was the setup for that? What did I miss on that move?
I entered long after fibbing 51943 to 51415 move. After a breach of 50% and retrace, I entered on retrace on 10:15 candle with targets between 134 and 155, and SL below 19.1%. It worked out beautifully, but what did I miss on the first trade, that you suggested?
Were you guys buying support? Thank you
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/2...gsetup4610.jpg
  • #776
  • Edited 2:24pm Apr 6, 2010 1:37pm | Edited 2:24pm
Quoting Vark
I think I just post it here for educational purposes, ok?

OK, this morning on GU you said you entered long on a 8:45 candle @5157. What was the setup for that? What did I miss on that move?
I entered long after fibbing 51943 to 51415 move. After a breach of 50% and retrace, I entered on retrace on 10:15 candle with targets between 134 and 155, and SL below 19.1%. It worked out beautifully, but what did I miss on the first trade, that you suggested?
Were you guys buying support? Thank you
http://img251.imageshack.us/img251/2...gsetup4610.jpg...
Great Trade Vark!

We bought support which also converged with today's bear targets and the completion of the last ABCD swing. The last EU analysis explains the entry for the EU. We did the same for the GU, just did not get the chance to post the chart. Will do in the next 2 hours. We had support at 1.5157 and 1.5140 also on GU.
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  • #777
  • Apr 6, 2010 2:30pm Apr 6, 2010 2:30pm
great! I have so much to learn - I love it! Every time I understand something, I go back to teh beginning of the thread and the manual and it finally clicks! And EVERY single time I find something new, something I didn't pay attention to last time I was reading - practice makes perfect! Funny, I was all lost in the bunch of fibs I had on my charts, until looked at yours and saw, that you have prices and % only on the right, so now my fibs don't collide like crazy

About overtrading - I can only trade certain periods of the day, so even if I wanted to, I couldn't spend all my time in front of PC
I think I am getting a feel how to use teh 50% breach fib, noww I need to start paying attention to a bigger picture - potential dangerous areas of support/resistance.

Another question: when we are looking for a sell setup after the upswing, do we fib the last major UPSWING for areas of support, that our current downswing has to break through? and how do we define MAJOR? For instance, if we were to look fro setups on that downswing, would we fib the red rectangle or the entire blue? Or we would fib the red untill our downswing breaks through the 0% and then we take the blue one ?
Thank you
http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/2852/majorupmove.jpg
  • #778
  • Apr 6, 2010 3:03pm Apr 6, 2010 3:03pm
Quoting Vark
great! I have so much to learn - I love it! Every time I understand something, I go back to teh beginning of the thread and the manual and it finally clicks! And EVERY single time I find something new, something I didn't pay attention to last time I was reading - practice makes perfect! Funny, I was all lost in the bunch of fibs I had on my charts, until looked at yours and saw, that you have prices and % only on the right, so now my fibs don't collide like crazy

About overtrading - I can only trade certain periods of the day, so even...
Hi Vark,

I can hear the excitement in your words and see that you are definitely learning and making an effort to learn. All the areas you have highlighted, both red and blue are correct.
The MAJOR area however would be the blue area. The red areas are still crucial for showing setups on the way down to the 50% that would be given in the blue area.
As a note though, swing highs or swing lows are excellent for finding areas to draw the 50% fib to. Swing highs and lows usually have a U shape...U for swing low, upside down U for swing high.
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  • #779
  • Edited 4:53pm Apr 6, 2010 3:12pm | Edited 4:53pm
The GU has bought of the 1.5130 support and is now at the resistance of the entire up swing and bouncing of the backside of the trendlines from the low of March 25th 2010 and the high of April 5th. It is very likely that we will see a dip from here. Swing high at 1.5194 and support at 1.5220 however must be watched.
On the upside, breaking above would create strong support on this level.

http://img52.imageshack.us/img52/5526/gudown.jpg

Weekly Morning Star Tested

Here we see that the Morning Star on the Weekly Chart was tested to the the 38.2%. Soon we will know if it fails and whether it will not seek for deeper retracement. However, the current view shows that we could go very bullish towards 1.6460 or 1.6874.
1.5640 is also a probable target.

http://img144.imageshack.us/img144/9530/ms2n.jpg
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  • #780
  • Edited 4:04pm Apr 6, 2010 3:51pm | Edited 4:04pm
The GU fell to support at 1.5120 identified by fibbing 50% fib from the 3:15am high to the March 30th low. We also had a butterfly pattern completing at this level which also converged with Friday's bear target #2.
After buying commenced on this level, we bought retraces to support at 1.5157 and 1.5140.
Fibbing the AB swing of 1.5127 to 1.5194 we see a 80.9% retrace forming C, which should extend to the 127.2% or 1.5280.

http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/892/2daygu.jpg

50% Breach Entries on the Way Up...
Smilies signify entry points

http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/3094/2day50.jpg
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