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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #1,061
  • Mar 31, 2010 8:25pm Mar 31, 2010 8:25pm
U/J is touching daily pivot, I'm loading up more long U/J
93.33
SL=92.70
TP =94.88 & 97
  • #1,062
  • Mar 31, 2010 9:53pm Mar 31, 2010 9:53pm
Quoting shahab8b
U/J is touching daily pivot, I'm loading up more long U/J
93.33
SL=92.70
TP =94.88 & 97
Hi Shahab8b,

Thanks for the explanation. I'll take a look at the COT for the next few weeks and see if I can come up with a trading pan. Just a thought, is the U/J sitting at daily resistance at about 93.50??? Why go long from here, why not wait for the break and retrace before entering?
  • #1,063
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:12pm Mar 31, 2010 10:12pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi Shahab8b,

Thanks for the explanation. I'll take a look at the COT for the next few weeks and see if I can come up with a trading pan. Just a thought, is the U/J sitting at daily resistance at about 93.50??? Why go long from here, why not wait for the break and retrace before entering?

how do you wanna do that? set a buy stop order above R ? and the issue is not that daily R you mentioned , the big obstacle is the confluence of previous R and Weekly R1,

you can do a buy stop over 93.75 if you feel like it, but the reason that I dont do Stop orders is they mess up my RRR.
+ you mentioned taking long in retracements, you can do that, that's why my previous buy limit order was 93 (R>S)
for now I think buy on daily pivot at 93.30 is good
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  • #1,064
  • Mar 31, 2010 10:55pm Mar 31, 2010 10:55pm
Thanks for the information about ssi.

I think market is going to tank as NFP may be bad. I can be 100 percent too. But there are too much expectations that it should be good.
Contrarian : it will be bad.
Well, we will see I guess.
  • #1,065
  • Mar 31, 2010 11:03pm Mar 31, 2010 11:03pm
U/Cad:

buy limit order: weekly S2 & previous low : 1.0085 & 1.0065
SL=1.0025 TP=1.0170 & 1.0320
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  • #1,066
  • Mar 31, 2010 11:06pm Mar 31, 2010 11:06pm
AUDCAD; getting more intense
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  • #1,067
  • Mar 31, 2010 11:11pm Mar 31, 2010 11:11pm
U/J long : my favorite, 97 till next week (hopefully with all those longs I have loaded up +50 pips till now with a bad entree from 92.94)
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  • #1,068
  • Mar 31, 2010 11:20pm Mar 31, 2010 11:20pm
A/U sell limit order at previous high and weekly R2 .9245 & .9270 SL=.9310
TP=.9130 & 90
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  • #1,069
  • Mar 31, 2010 11:22pm Mar 31, 2010 11:22pm
Quoting puks
Hi mate,

Hope you changed your S/L for AU to .9185.

I am still short and its bloody costing me some serious $$$.

but given its an extra long weekend and NFP, I am sensing risk aversion and profit taking move.

TP of my shorts have now moved to .9110-15 as there are loads of trailing stops below .9130
Hi mate, no I didn't get the chance to do that ,I was in a rush to leave home and didn't change the SL, stopped out -25 pips
  • #1,070
  • Mar 31, 2010 11:39pm Mar 31, 2010 11:39pm
G/U :sell limit order at counfluence of prvious S/R and weekly R3 and proximity of 38% fib (not shown) :
sell limit : 1.5375 SL=1.5450 TP=TBD

not speculating , just placing the right order at the right place,
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  • #1,071
  • Apr 1, 2010 12:04am Apr 1, 2010 12:04am
I like this one:
E/J :
inverted Head & shoulders ,
buy limit at neckline R>S 125.25-125 SL= 124 TP= to the sky and beyond
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  • #1,072
  • Apr 1, 2010 12:11am Apr 1, 2010 12:11am
let me know if anyone loaded up longs U/J at daily pivot 93.30 , I think we will touch daily pivot again before a break through this tough R at 93.75
  • #1,073
  • Apr 1, 2010 12:32am Apr 1, 2010 12:32am
hi guys

GBPUSD60

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/lp...gu20_thumb.gif

AUDNZD240

http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/h6...c5lq_thumb.gif
  • #1,074
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:08am Apr 1, 2010 1:08am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
let me know if anyone loaded up longs U/J at daily pivot 93.30 , I think we will touch daily pivot again before a break through this tough R at 93.75
I missed the entry by 0.2 pips.. but let's see if there will be another touch .
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #1,075
  • Apr 1, 2010 5:07am Apr 1, 2010 5:07am
SSI: USDCHF Ratio Pulls Back From Bullish Extremes as Pair Tests March Lows
Thursday, 01 Apr 2010 09:58 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, DailyFX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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Intraday Highlight:

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 5.47 as nearly 85% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 5.51 as 85% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.5% higher than yesterday and 39.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.3% higher than yesterday and 40.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.6% stronger than yesterday and 22.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.49 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 0.6% lower than yesterday and 20.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.9% lower than yesterday and 51.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.4% weaker than yesterday and 7.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.20 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.26 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.8% higher than yesterday and 29.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.1% higher than yesterday and 62.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.2% stronger than yesterday and 5.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.04 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.22 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.3% higher than yesterday and 5.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.9% lower than yesterday and 3.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.1% weaker than yesterday and 0.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at -1.20 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.42 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 11.9% higher than yesterday and 3.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.3% lower than yesterday and 0.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.8% stronger than yesterday and 5.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.87 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.45 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.1% higher than yesterday and 14.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.6% lower than yesterday and 32.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.5% stronger than yesterday and 3.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.26 as nearly 56% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.56 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 24.8% higher than yesterday and 4.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.1% higher than yesterday and 11.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 10.4% stronger than yesterday and 10.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.05 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.07 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.2% lower than yesterday and 8.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.0% lower than yesterday and 0.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.1% weaker than yesterday and 4.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.


USDX 4 Hour and Daily

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,076
  • Apr 1, 2010 5:22am Apr 1, 2010 5:22am
Quoting shahab8b
this week has been one my worst trading weeks as the trade result can tell you
I've had a slack two months - the percentage gains on my accounts are laughable. You got off lightly
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,077
  • Apr 1, 2010 6:41am Apr 1, 2010 6:41am
Quoting hayseed
alan is strirring the pot..... it's a slow cookin fire so might take 90 days for the commodities to come to a boil......

and the nzdusd is within a couple hundred pips and thirty days of the upper down trend channel...... a steep channel at that......h
I saw him speaking on Bloomberg TV. I remember his "conundrum" speech a few years back.

http://mises.org/daily/1859

So it's gone from a conundrum to a canary. I miss him. He used to create a lot of volatility and the interview reminded me of my favourite quote of his that I used to have as my old signature. It's about time I brought it back to life
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #1,078
  • Apr 1, 2010 6:58am Apr 1, 2010 6:58am
Quoting Patience
I saw him speaking on Bloomberg TV. I remember his "conundrum" speech a few years back.

http://mises.org/daily/1859

So it's gone from a conundrum to a canary. I miss him. He used to create a lot of volatility and the interview reminded me of my favourite quote of his that I used to have as my old signature. It's about time I brought it back to life
G'Day Patience, I was at DT thread, he posted G.Brown resigned and the release will be at 15pm , then I short G/U right away (didnt know it was April's fool) pocket 20 pips till he said that!!! so funny
  • #1,079
  • Apr 1, 2010 7:07am Apr 1, 2010 7:07am
hope you guys long U/J when it dropped earlier today,

U/J long fasten your sit belt, unemployment is about to release in 2o min ,
the pattern in 30min/ 1hr TF is an ending diagonal if news fails this pair my drop at at least 100 pips, if it comes out to be good, we may see this tough R finally taken out.
  • #1,080
  • Apr 1, 2010 7:09am Apr 1, 2010 7:09am
Quoting shahab8b
hope you guys long U/J when it dropped earlier today,

U/J long fasten your sit belt, unemployment is about to release in 2o min ,
the pattern in 30min/ 1hr TF is an ending diagonal if news fails this pair my drop at at least 100 pips, if it comes out to be good, we may see this tough R finally taken out.
I am ready. Fired up.

it has been my worst trading week as well!!!
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