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Simple & Consistent Fibbing Method

  • #741
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:55pm Mar 31, 2010 4:55pm
Simone,

I am now clear on how to fib the fibs to be able to calculate the bull and bear targets.

With the 50% fib - all that needs to be done is to fib the last swing high to swing low - considering the fractals - right?

Almost there...
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #742
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:58pm Mar 31, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting aftab
Simone,

I am now clear on how to fib the fibs to be able to calculate the bull and bear targets.

With the 50% fib - all that needs to be done is to fib the last swing high to swing low - considering the fractals - right?

Almost there...
Great!!! Thats correct aftab!
Hero Traders Live to see their Accounts Die!
  • #743
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:08pm Mar 31, 2010 5:08pm
Quoting simoneg
Great!!! Thats correct aftab!
hey simoneg, had a successful trade today (first one in a very long time) and i used some of your method to help me get in

on eu when price was at resistance, i had a couple harmonic projections at resistance and there was bearish price action accompanied by high volume (from m6e)

i used your breach for entry as opposed to strictly the break of a candlestick formation... well i did sell on the break of a 5 minute doji under the 50% fib. i would have waited for better confirmation but i had to go to the gym

boy am i tired of losing trades its good to not get smacked in the face. i moved my sl to b/e and i don't even care if i get stopped at least i didn't lose ( like today when i went to yoga and didn't know i was in a trade with no stop )

wow ok
  • #744
  • Edited 5:41pm Mar 31, 2010 5:23pm | Edited 5:41pm
Quoting frankkn
hey simoneg, had a successful trade today (first one in a very long time) and i used some of your method to help me get in

on eu when price was at resistance, i had a couple harmonic projections at resistance and there was bearish price action accompanied by high volume (from m6e)

i used your breach for entry as opposed to strictly the break of a candlestick formation... well i did sell on the break of a 5 minute doji under the 50% fib. i would have waited for better confirmation but i had to go to the gym

boy am i tired of losing trades...
Good to hear that frankkn! I am glad you could also find a way to incorporate the method in what you already use! Butterflies, Gartleys, AB=CD etc are all Fibonacci patterns as well.
I can identify with rushing out and forgetting stops from past experience. Some didnt go so well so I paid dearly. Nevertheless, its all a part of the learning curve. Repeated experiences should teach us.

I heard someone say this week that they are logging their trades. When they entered, where and why. And I think this is good so that you can find yourself repeating the successful habits to reduce losses and make profiting a consistent habit.

Good trading today! These are the days I return to FOREX Kindergarten...MAKE PIPS, KEEP PIPS, REPEAT!

Keep it up! Much more to be shared on this method...in time.
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  • #745
  • Edited 9:36pm Mar 31, 2010 8:56pm | Edited 9:36pm
The GU has just hit the bottom of its weekly trading channel for the third time and is attempting to close this week with a MORNING STAR candle pattern.

However we are also just below the 50% of the AB swing of Nov 26 2009 to Aug 10 2009. That is 1.3508 to 1.7030. So far the 1.5265 resistance is holding and can trigger strong selling.
http://img44.imageshack.us/img44/9567/guweekly.jpg
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  • #746
  • Mar 31, 2010 11:19pm Mar 31, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting aftab
Simone,


With the 50% fib - all that needs to be done is to fib the last swing high to swing low - considering the fractals - right?
if we are trending UP and form a sell pattern, if we are trending DOWN and form buy pattern we will be fibbing from the low to nearest high, going in the past, correct?

Now the question is - do you wait for the candles to close or breach 0% or 100%, to confirm the trend, before you go furher in the past for the previous high/low, or right after the entry you just pull your fib further, to see the new resistance/support at 50%?

Thanks
  • #747
  • Edited 11:52pm Mar 31, 2010 11:48pm | Edited 11:52pm
I was going over today's day (in retrospective) and found pretty much just one trade.
My intraday fib was fibbed from 12:00 to 7:00 EST (I was assuming, that would have been my start time, so I missed that nice up move between 3:45 and 5:15 candles). It was fibbed first to 5:15 candle (1.5177) and since we had a pullback past 80.9 after 8:15 candle, I adjusted it to there (1.5185). The high was broken at 12:45 with a pullback, so I adjusted it again and ultimately ended on a 8:30pm candle (1.5239). That high held into the 1st, so it was high of the day and it gave us tomorrows targets 5306-5347 for bulls and 4974-4933 for bears...so far correct?

Anyway, the one trade I saw was fibbing from 51864 on a 8;30 candle back to 51294 on a 6:30 candle with entry on a 9;30 candle, than we had a strong support off our 50% of intraday fib (at that moment) and we probably could've entered long after the 3rd hit on that support (buy support, sell resistance type of thing), when the trend reversed.
ughhhh....
I have attached a chart to show that entry.

Please let me know if anything above was close
Thanks
http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/7753/entrytoday.jpg
  • #748
  • Apr 1, 2010 1:45am Apr 1, 2010 1:45am
Quoting Vark
if we are trending UP and form a sell pattern, if we are trending DOWN and form buy pattern we will be fibbing from the low to nearest high, going in the past, correct?

Now the question is - do you wait for the candles to close or breach 0% or 100%, to confirm the trend, before you go furher in the past for the previous high/low, or right after the entry you just pull your fib further, to see the new resistance/support at 50%?

Thanks
Hi Vark,

In one of the videos Simone does mention that the fibs have to be redrawn after the close of the candles.
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
  • #749
  • Apr 1, 2010 6:47am Apr 1, 2010 6:47am
Quoting aftab
Hi Vark,

In one of the videos Simone does mention that the fibs have to be redrawn after the close of the candles.
right! I remember it now! so we would redraw the fib after our entry candle closes
  • #750
  • Apr 1, 2010 6:57am Apr 1, 2010 6:57am
Good Morning Vark,

Lets talk about your trade in a few hours. I have training today and setting up a few trades for this morning.
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  • #751
  • Edited 8:32am Apr 1, 2010 7:06am | Edited 8:32am
The 1.5265 Weekly resistance is still holding and we have hit 1 of our weekly bull targets and are half way to the second.

So far we also have price rejection to the upside. As we have broken yesterday's high but failed to hit any targets. Should this rejection hold, we will be looking ultimately for support at 1.5081 (off yesterday's fib) and lower, bear targets at 1.4972 and 1.4928.

Fibbing from 1.5248 to 1.5199 we find our first breach level at 1.5222, which we just closed below and are watching the price action for short entries.

1.5208 is strong support and our next breach level (adjust 50% fib to low of 1.5169 to see this). Breaking below here can also present further shorting opportunities.

http://img59.imageshack.us/img59/3536/newguset.jpg
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  • #752
  • Apr 1, 2010 7:24am Apr 1, 2010 7:24am
i see that setup, no we wait for that candle to close before re-entering, right?
  • #753
  • Apr 1, 2010 7:32am Apr 1, 2010 7:32am
Quoting Vark
i see that setup, no we wait for that candle to close before re-entering, right?
Yes Vark,to confirm that the level is holding. It is being tested again
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  • #754
  • Apr 1, 2010 7:38am Apr 1, 2010 7:38am
The trick here Vark, is the possible Morning Star forming on the bottom of the weekly channel. We can go very bullish from here.
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  • #755
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:02am Apr 1, 2010 8:02am
Right on 1.5260/65 resistance. Lets see now, Bulls or Bears
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  • #756
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:12am Apr 1, 2010 8:12am
Quoting simoneg
Right on 1.5260/65 resistance. Lets see now, Bulls or Bears
hmmm
Raza
  • #757
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:24am Apr 1, 2010 8:24am
As previously shown on the weekly chart, the 50% level on the weekly is at 1.5265. Zooming down to the H4 we see that we have bought up to the resistance of the previous down move. We are therefore at a decision level. If you are long, protect profits and watch price action. Shorts off this level are good entries with fair stop.

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/6706/resx.jpg
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  • #758
  • Apr 1, 2010 8:43am Apr 1, 2010 8:43am
Blue lines Resistance, Magenta lines Support

http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/722/zoomw.jpg
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  • #759
  • Apr 1, 2010 9:18am Apr 1, 2010 9:18am
Where will this H4 bar/candle close???

Holding shorts off resistance right now.

http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/4093/zoom2.jpg
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  • #760
  • Edited 10:08am Apr 1, 2010 10:05am | Edited 10:08am
Hi Simone,

I hope you do not mind me sharing two filter that I use with your method.

1. The trendline; and
2. The Gartley that needs to complete before price comes back to the trendline.

Please see two trades I took today with very small stops and as a result larger Risk:Reward ratios. These risk:reward ratios have been calculated to the 1.340 only - if calculated to the 1.550 (very often reached when trades are taken after the gartlies) - they work out even better.

1. AUD; and
2. CAD trades
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD - 15 mins.jpg Size: 113 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD - 15 mins.jpg Size: 125 KB
AFTAB Time Will Tell & Price Will Show
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