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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #59,741
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:29pm Mar 31, 2010 4:29pm
Quoting mbqb11
Well its hard to say too much based on just this alone....
That's where I still struggle.
I find it difficult separating between cutting losers short vs killing trades too early when you get a bit draw down and then it runs in your favor. I guess it's because you can never know what going to happen next for sure. lol.
I tended to follow James advice and cut my draw downs fast, but then figured that long term it wouldn't pay off. So I lowered my risk per trade and made a rule of not doing anything no matter what till price hits my first trouble area or my SL.
I also came up with the though that James cuts off his draw downs cause of fear/uncomfort ( I remember him saying taking full bar loses makes him sick for months), but I am really not sure if he does it for his emotional comfort, or actual statistics.
When most of your trades generate around 0.5R, it's quite significant taking a full bar loss, even if your win rate is high.

Decisions, decisions...
Any brilliant thoughts for ya Mike? lol
  • #59,742
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:32pm Mar 31, 2010 4:32pm
Hey Mike I was looking at this pin on USD CHF. After thinking about it I am not going to take it just out of being unsure with it . Just wanted to know if you would look at this as a TP bar late in the day. It is kinda large but equal or lesser thant the few preceding bars and it isnt sitting the best on the RN. Not much room IMHO either. Just wanted to know if you were looking at it. Thanks

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  • #59,743
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:35pm Mar 31, 2010 4:35pm
Quoting dmc
Hey Mike I was looking at this pin on USD CHF. After thinking about it I am not going to take it just out of being unsure with it . Just wanted to know if you would look at this as a TP bar late in the day. It is kinda large but equal or lesser thant the few preceding bars and it isnt sitting the best on the RN. Not much room IMHO either. Just wanted to know if you were looking at it. Thanks

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Those down bearish bars are too strong vs that size bar for me. This might very well give some pips, but the pressure is to the down size rather then this being a reversal. That "feeling" you have will eventually materialize into something you see time and time again(as it does for everyone). These bars I find easy enough to pass on no matter what ends up happening.

Best
Mike
  • #59,744
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:38pm Mar 31, 2010 4:38pm
Quoting benji533
That's where I still struggle.
I find it difficult separating between cutting losers short vs killing trades too early when you get a bit draw down and then it runs in your favor. I guess it's because you can never know what going to happen next for sure. lol.
I tended to follow James advice and cut my draw downs fast, but then figured that long term it wouldn't pay off. So I lowered my risk per trade and made a rule of not doing anything no matter what till price hits my first trouble area or my SL.
I also came up with the though that James cuts...
Time and experience my friend. I do a little bit of everything. I try to evaluate each trade as its own and determine the best course of action and that even can change during the trades. This is why we have different types of traders here. It comes down to YOU. But a good thing I found is keeping track of multiple mgmt techniques. For example last year I documented my trades as if managing them very tight(my win rate exceeded 90% and my R multiple decreased greatly). Why did I do this? Simply because I wanted to see and also be prepared for the day that maybe I do change as a trader and my account is so large like James that having a 70% win rate isn't good enough anymore. So for me its about taking great stats and letting things develop(which is where there is no subsititue for time and experience). I wish I had a better concrete answer for you . The good thing Benji is you are so close that you won't even know it until a long time passes and you can actually look back.

Best
Mike
  • #59,745
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:40pm Mar 31, 2010 4:40pm
Thanks Mike. Yea I definitely can see it making it up to the 1.0580 but just not confident. Glad to have the same thought process as you on this.

Quoting mbqb11
Those down bearish bars are too strong vs that size bar for me. This might very well give some pips, but the pressure is to the down size rather then this being a reversal. That "feeling" you have will eventually materialize into something you see time and time again(as it does for everyone). These bars I find easy enough to pass on no matter what ends up happening.

Best
Mike
  • #59,746
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:45pm Mar 31, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting mbqb11
mike are you having trouble keeping your hands to yourself again
I walked right into that one and now look like I pissed myself from the drink I just dropped into my lap hahah I'll get you back for that one my man! haha


For thread's sake, the nzd/usd broke high from that two bar pin and now I'm trading it as if from the I4B breakout on the weekly.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #59,747
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:45pm Mar 31, 2010 4:45pm
You got it. Rac
Monthly PB in GPB/USD...


Quoting raczekfx
Yes, It is always a bonus... how did you know I was in that long trade...?
.
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What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
  • #59,748
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:50pm Mar 31, 2010 4:50pm
Hey Mike,
Do you apply serveral mgmt techniques in one account? or you separate different techniques in each account?

Quoting mbqb11
Time and experience my friend. I do a little bit of everything. I try to evaluate each trade as its own and determine the best course of action and that even can change during the trades. This is why we have different types of traders here.............
Best
Mike
What does not kill me makes me stronger. Friedrich Nietzsche,
  • #59,749
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:50pm Mar 31, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting Lyra
Trying to learn touch trade from racz, nasir and trigger. I've spend this few days reading some of their older posts, but still not quite get the idea. Anyway this is the area I am watching, any comment would be appreciated. Thank you

Yes that's it. The Gbp/Jpy as well. Nice confluenced areas.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #59,750
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:51pm Mar 31, 2010 4:51pm
Quoting mbqb11
Time and experience my friend. I do a little bit of everything. I try to evaluate each trade as its own and determine the best course of action and that even can change during the trades. This is why we have different types of traders here. It comes down to YOU. But a good thing I found is keeping track of multiple mgmt techniques. For example last year I documented my trades as if managing them very tight(my win rate exceeded 90% and my R multiple decreased greatly). Why did I do this? Simply because I wanted to see and also be prepared for...


Keeping a spreadsheet where I would be comparing between different approaches on the trades I take is indeed a great idea. It would be very useful after enough data gained - statistically and emotionally (time and experience as you say).
Thanks Mike! It helped a lot
  • #59,751
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:58pm Mar 31, 2010 4:58pm
Quoting mbqb11
Also to add to this if I may. That pinbar although by proxy shows very weak momentum for the bears. A strong close is very crucial IMO and why I never play proxy pins(IMO tougher to play). A strong close off this area could hav given a much stronger signal that the bears were acrtually wanting to shor thtis market. Instead price only bumnped up on the round number and stalled rather then sold off. This is crucial. It is not uncommon for price to ever stall at any round number like this, but the key is to decipher if it is TRUE selling vs just profit...
Structure is important.

The Close is not lower the Open besides not within prior bars. Shows weak selling or not enough selling that we would like to see.

Thanks Mike. Excellent.


Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #59,752
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:02pm Mar 31, 2010 5:02pm
Quoting jarroo
Yes that's it. The Gbp/Jpy as well. Nice confluenced areas.
Add AJ to that too @ PPZ and 61.8 fib right now.

Also have EG @ 8836 on my watchlist too in terms of Rac style trades.

With regards EJ and GJ if the dow could be breaking out of it's 4 hour box downwards when price reaches the the confluenced areas this would be ideal IMO.

Jaroo - what MA is that on your chart by the way?
  • #59,753
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:03pm Mar 31, 2010 5:03pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Add AJ to that too @ PPZ and 61.8 fib right now.

Also have EG @ 8836 on my watchlist too in terms of Rac style trades.

With regards EJ and GJ if the dow could be breaking out of it's 4 hour box downwards when price reaches the the confluenced areas this would be ideal IMO.

Jaroo - what MA is that on your chart by the way?
150 ema at the close.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #59,754
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:11pm Mar 31, 2010 5:11pm
Quoting ikki
You got it. Rac
Monthly PB in GPB/USD...

The Rac-man is good.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #59,755
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:18pm Mar 31, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting benji533
Damn Dan! You have described it perfectly. I know that feeling very well, trust me on that buddy. It tended to drive me crazy, and still exists from time to time. It's the emotional pain you feel when your expectations do not get filled. That's why I always try avoiding making any expectations or self convincing about anything regarding the market. But that's hard - I remember taking a few revenge trades because of that.

By the way, I was watching the location on that trade like a hawk but didn't like the size of the daily bar. So after playing...
Nice work Ben.

Expectations beyond the 1st obvious target, no matter how you view the quality of the setup, can be delusions of grandeur. You protect yourself anyway. I know the feeling as well.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #59,756
  • Mar 31, 2010 6:46pm Mar 31, 2010 6:46pm
Quoting ikki
Hey Mike,
Do you apply serveral mgmt techniques in one account? or you separate different techniques in each account?
Hey Ikki

Everything is done on my one account. The mgmt part is simply another aspect of my trading.

Best
Mike
  • #59,757
  • Mar 31, 2010 6:50pm Mar 31, 2010 6:50pm
Quoting jarroo
The Rac-man is good.
think you have an extra 'o' in there
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #59,758
  • Mar 31, 2010 6:53pm Mar 31, 2010 6:53pm
Quoting jarroo
Yes that's it. The Gbp/Jpy as well. Nice confluenced areas.
that has got to be the most confluenced area I have seen since I have started studying J16.

there's a descending trendline there too that lines up with the PPZ/61.8/150EMA. If price doesn't bounce off this area (143.20), I will sh!t bricks.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #59,759
  • Edited 7:59pm Mar 31, 2010 7:44pm | Edited 7:59pm
Quoting mike w
Stop doing this to yourselves guys. Until it becomes engrained that fundamental analysis plays out in technical analysis, this will confuse you so much that you'll get analysis paralysis and take losses. The SNB doesn't matter and neither do the US payrolls (unless you're trading the lower timeframes).
We should be careful to distinguish newstrading from using fundamentals as part of your trading. Trying to trade the news, as a small retail trader with an mt4 broker, is a ridiculous proposition and will almost always send people broke.

Using economic analysis to filter your trades (or, more importantly, trade directions or pairs) isnt a bad thing, at all.

Of course, you have to understand said economic analysis to begin with, which is where alot of people go wrong. Throwing around random statements like 'the SNB will intervenshunz!#$' or 'Greece bailout = buy euro' are just going to get you into a world of hurt. Which is where I do a complete 180 and tell people to stick to the charts

Quoting mike w
It's all in the charts. Trust me on that.


I cant believe people still assume the two are seperate things. But then again, some people also think they saw Elvis at a Quick-E-Mart, so...
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #59,760
  • Mar 31, 2010 8:50pm Mar 31, 2010 8:50pm
Quoting Lyra
Trying to learn touch trade from racz, nasir and trigger. I've spend this few days reading some of their older posts, but still not quite get the idea. ...
this reply is for everyone who can relate to Lyra's post (trying to learn touch trade)

if u havent yet, learn to walk first before u run. (we have heard that before)
what raczekfx does (& his 'disciples' do) are advanced (& sometimes aggressive) PA, PPZ, S/R applications/techniques. therefore, it's difficult to emulate him/them if one is not versed in the application of PA, PPZ, S/R.

im not saying u cant run or u cant try to run. try to walk WELL first before u attempt to run.
as with most things, there IS a process that WE have to go through.
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