Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

ok , thanx good enough

OMG you really were on the wrong side Shahab. Everyone had the same idea.

SSI: A 52% Plunge in USDCHF Retail Shorts Leverages the Pair’s SSI Ratio to 7.41
Wednesday, 31 Mar 2010 17:22 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 7.41 as nearly 88% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.02 as 75% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.8% higher than yesterday and 26.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 52.5% lower than yesterday and 61.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.4% weaker than yesterday and 14.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.66 as nearly 62% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.03 as 51% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 21.2% lower than yesterday and 30.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 34.1% higher than yesterday and 75.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.0% stronger than yesterday and 8.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.38 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.08 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 13.3% lower than yesterday and 37.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 10.8% higher than yesterday and 66.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.8% weaker than yesterday and 0.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.16 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.25 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 5.5% higher than yesterday and 2.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.7% lower than yesterday and 8.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.5% stronger than yesterday and 3.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at -1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.22 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 11.4% lower than yesterday and 3.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.9% higher than yesterday and 6.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.1% weaker than yesterday and 0.1% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.81 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.93 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.2% higher than yesterday and 3.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 27.8% lower than yesterday and 37.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.1% weaker than yesterday and 12.3% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.49 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.55 as 72% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 17.1% higher than yesterday and 17.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 31.5% lower than yesterday and 16.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 17.8% weaker than yesterday and 2.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.14 as 53% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 15.3% higher than yesterday and 15.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.0% lower than yesterday and 10.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 7.1% stronger than yesterday and 5.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

im long usd/chf as well, and short gbp/jpy
'
usd/chf TP 1.07

I'm in a U/CHF long as well. Entered earlier already after the bounce from 1.0558. @ 1.0568
Looked good at first..quick +20 but then south. My SL @ 1.0485 did hold to the pip
Nice retrace now to get me out of the reds again.
Still unsure..
Bounce from the daily TL all the way up... or more south to come?
If we get there I consider getting out on retest of before broken H4 TL around 1.06 or S>R @ 1.058

That was a hard week so far.

hey shahab..... looks like 1.0487 was the low for ibfx......h

thanx, if this remains to be the bottom I'll kick myself. First I thought may be my broker wanted to get ride of me. but price seems fair.

on a separate note, I would like to know if I can discuss developing a hedging EA with you. can I shot an email?

Hi Clouds , yesterday I told Kourtney to be careful with her short G/J , it seems she doesn't do SL and just hedge randomly. U/J will go higher , the same thing is happening to G/U for now. at least I know you do SL.

anyways G/L with your trades.

Yes, my S/L just above 142, and I'll move it to 141, 140, 139 as long as it keeps going down. It has gone up 1,000 pips since low of 132, so now seems like just as good of time as any , to pick a top. Though 144 isn't out of the question. I don't know about U/J, it's gone some strong resistance January 10th high of 93.80, if anything, it should at least retrace. Just my view.

take a look at this U/Cad monthly candle (will be closed in hrs) if you are a USD bull (like me ) you don't want to see something like this.

I understand.93.80 is a tough R in U/J, but I think 97 till April 8-9 or sometimes next week

i have gone short on usdcad (had closed my earlier short at 155) and on usdchf, purely on a speculative punt based on sentiment.

i will be looking to go long on cable around 5150.

what's your entree level?

look also

Patience,

how do i get fxcm, ssi thing you post here.
do one have to be customer or just demo account would give access to this tool. Thanks for your reply.

well , if I may write my view to this pair I can say pretty confidently that this pair "must" touch 143 and above ..it will retrace a little bit to the downside but eventualy will go higher to that level.
b u t ..
its true that U/J will go higher (most chances) but the GBP is predicted to be weaker and therefor eventually break the 131.62 low .

another scenario is the G/J will top to 150/51 and then fall to bellow 131.62.

hope to be right ... dont kill me if I dont.

yeap,I learned it the hard way.

It's funny how we all draw different trendlines because I see it like this. There is some tough resistance but I'm with Shahab on seeing higher prices.

NFP will tell us, you know U/J is most sensitive pair to NFP report, it will shoot up 200 pips or came down 200 pips in couple of minutes

probably not good entries. 5150 on usdchf and 150 on usdcad.

as i said, purely speculative, with a 100 pip sl on both

Well Oanda are 69.47% long and Dukascopy 82.22% long so there are a lot of retail traders long on this