AUD/USD

it stalls? because its lunch time wait until they're back from lunch.

I see...that's right...here in QLD, we do not have daylight savings...so I'm always having to adjust my 'brain clock'

you mean it'll retrace down to 9082 then head back north?

nasilemak too hah, there are good malaysian restaurants in sydney though, good enough to feel like home =D

so you mainly trade news? what do you do with the false breakouts as there usually will be, like NFP, or even the previous aus rate hike, it went crazy a bit before heading up, triggered all my orders and subsequently their SLs before heading up

hi marc, i was only watching yesterday there wasn't much movement
welcome back today, how does this long red candlebar look to you? lol

closed some shorts on AUD now hedging LONG to try to close at 9207

hedged with GBPJPY and closed longs at 140.43 now I'm net short to 138.16

longs on AUD may take a while to reach profit...

Yes, same here in BNE...it's great! although, the kopi tiam set up is not the same feel

which part of M'sia are you from OvT and Dongsky?

I think and am a big fan of a balance of news and data trading...(some of the chartists may not agree) however, there's no doubt that sentiments are also a big factor in the way people react...just like the Tuesday rally that no one understood technically.

I caught some of the ride down. I was out at 9163 before the weekly R1 was hit. To be honest with you I was starting to worry that my short from earlier this morning was going to be the end of me but when the news came out and it started moving down I put a PO in place and didn't look back!

How did you fare?

Long on A/U to 9207? Really?

i agree with news might act as catalyst for technicals, but also because we're sticking to technicals this might make us a bit bear-bias you think?

as this premature rally happens 1 week ahead, it leaves room for the scenarios that you mention to play out, either of them.

when you're back, you might be thrilled to see the news sent aud south

For those who are trading EUR/USD, AUD/JPY, and AUD/USD and is interested in an expert opinion from forex.com

EURUSD has been underperforming since the spike above 1.3540, which was caused by a surprisingly oversubscribed Greek bond auction. But as my CNBC Fast Money colleague, Brian Kelly points out “ those who bought the debt looked up only to find another 1b Euros worth of 12 year bonds on the auction block. Upon seeing the debt hanging by a horse hair, bond traders promptly sold off Greek bonds” EURUSD cratered back below 1.3500 in reaction and is set to test 1.3000 in coming sessions. I have two possible wave counts shown for the current wave 3 within the 5th wave effort down towards 1.3000. The primary count is shown in normal wave labels with the projected path illustrated with red arrow, and the alternate count with the wave labels in parenthesis with a projected path shown with a black arrow. I am offering 2 units of EURUSD to hedge myself between the two possible wave counts with offers at 1.3430 and 1.3455 with 1.3495 stops and 1.3355 and 1.3260 take profits.

https://secure.forex.com/adx/aspx/ad...3010eurusd.gif





Monday, March 29, 2010 - New York Update - 10:23 AM EST Traders, our outstanding short Aussie positions against the Yen and USD were stopped out overnight for a profit to bring March into positive territory. As I've said in the past, March is one of the more difficult trading months in recent memory and to be in positive territory should be considered a victory.

The economic data calendar is packed this week staring with Personal Income and Spending this morning which was mostly flat, Consumer Confidence tomorrow, Wednesday is ADP Employment, Chicago PMI, and Factory Orders, Thursday sees ISM Mfg Index and Construction, and finally Friday is March NFP. So volatility is sure to be with us this week and I would like to think some important decisions with regards to the economic picture and resulting market trends will be made this week.

I am still keeping an eye on this significant AUDJPY 85.00 level. There is incredible convergence of technical resistance levels clustered right around this round number. I can count wave 5 completions of 3 different degrees here that completes corrective wave .C shown in purple, which possibly completes the largest degree of trend shown here, blue wave 2/B. In order for AUDJPY to hold resistance here, we would ideally like to see US bond yields as well as equity prices stall and begin to reverse to confirm a downturn in risk appetite.

https://secure.forex.com/adx/aspx/ad...2910audjpy.gif


Moving down to the 90 min chart, we get a closer look at the wave count further isolates the 85.00 resistance level with a group of Fib resistance ratios derived from the blue wave i-v sequence. 61.8% of blue wave i-iii projected up from the end of iv equates to an ending point of 85.06. 200% of blue wave ii projected up from the end of ii equates to an ending point of 85.01. Lastly, a 127.2% extension of blue wave iv projects a wave v ending point of 85.00.

I am going to take a shot at this level with shorts for 1 unit at 84.90 and another unit at 85.05 with stops for both at 85.53 and open take profits. Again, I want to see confirmation from equity and bond yields that we could be near a top in this rally.

https://secure.forex.com/adx/aspx/ad...910audjpy2.gif


Finally, I saw some questions from followers on Twitter about a possible count in the AUDUSD move. I can consider the move down in AUDUSD to be a leading diagonal in purple wave .1, with an on-going bounce in purple wave .2. Resistance can be isolated to somewhere between the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements at 0.9160 to 0.9200. We will be watching for a turn lower in AUDUSD to also confirm that our AUDJPY is on the correct track. Lastly, EURUSD seems to be finding similar resistance in the current 2nd wave bounce between 1.3480 and 1.3567. It's either possible this is the entire 2nd wave correction, or this is in fact just wave A of the 2nd wave correction with B down and C up yet to come. Please stayed tuned to Twitter for additional details. For more information, please see the Announcements section below. TG.

https://secure.forex.com/adx/aspx/ad...2910audusd.gif

By the way....would this sort of stuff be illegal? copy and pasting...but I do have a reference on the website...it's not a copyright issue is it?

yep thanks for correcting me bro i mean north

im from klang haha, bah kut teh!

yea i always thought news is a 50/50 thing, perhaps with proper setup it can work, until i figure it out, i will stay clear of them first

anybody here also trade the eur/aud?

yea this is a bold move considering it just starting dipping from the previous 200 pips rally

I think this is predominantly a AUD/USD forum, you may be able to look up EUR/AUD forum in the search bar..?

Hahah...I have been to Klang once....I love how fresh the seafood is there!

I'm not a comprehensive chartist - only partial, so over the years, I have just been watching how the market reacts during data release and so far so good

good stuff! but what if the news sent it north instead? haha

yep man i shorted last night when the first sign of shorting came, but it didn't last and was hanging around 9185 until this news came out

still hanging onto my short, waiting for 9146 to break

yea i did but i'm the only one thats posted over there in almost three days.

snowballing?