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Odds are with a 4hr KISS

  • #81
  • Mar 30, 2010 3:33pm Mar 30, 2010 3:33pm
LOL 211,
Ive been watching that eu setting up since noon. been just waiting for the pullback.

and yes thing, i'm not waiting for the close, i'm waiting for the touch. of the ma's since the h1 and h4 are in the same place and the daily just occurred as well.

Scottie
  • #82
  • Mar 30, 2010 3:34pm Mar 30, 2010 3:34pm
Well, we didn't get a pullback to the 1.3440-50 area on that last candle but we did get a small pb. So you have a couple choices at this point...1) keep waiting for the pullback or 2) enter based on the PB as explained on the chart below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4hr008.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #83
  • Mar 30, 2010 3:34pm Mar 30, 2010 3:34pm
i'm also seeing UCad starting to confirm this move and the gu has an evening star pattern if you are using a bar start time of 0:00 gmt.
  • #84
  • Edited 3:44pm Mar 30, 2010 3:43pm | Edited 3:44pm
i say we'll get the pullback, just wait for it.

the down move was 100 pips without looking back yet.
  • #85
  • Mar 30, 2010 3:46pm Mar 30, 2010 3:46pm
honestly,

those of you who are following this thread. I know the h4 time frame is not the rush of trading the m5 or m15, but if you want to make money, take a look at this.
  • #86
  • Mar 30, 2010 3:48pm Mar 30, 2010 3:48pm
Quoting Scottie
i'm also seeing UCad starting to confirm this move and the gu has an evening star pattern if you are using a bar start time of 0:00 gmt.

I agree, patiently waiting for GU to setup!
  • #87
  • Mar 30, 2010 4:44pm Mar 30, 2010 4:44pm
Quoting Scottie
i say we'll get the pullback, just wait for it.
Scottie, I like your intuition. I think good traders have it and see beyond the patterns and indys.
  • #88
  • Mar 30, 2010 5:02pm Mar 30, 2010 5:02pm
Might bear watching. Not a dynamic pair, obviously.

For those, I guess, who might want something else to trade for 30 pips or something.

5 about = 20 now;

MACD turning up to the correct direction
  • #89
  • Mar 30, 2010 6:49pm Mar 30, 2010 6:49pm
Guys

I saw some analysis where trades were taken without the participation of the 200ema. Why are we plotting it on the charts? I thought it was an extra confirmation of the trend and that trades are taken only in the direction of the 200ema?

Clarification please...
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #90
  • Mar 30, 2010 7:39pm Mar 30, 2010 7:39pm
Quoting Olu
Guys

I saw some analysis where trades were taken without the participation of the 200ema. Why are we plotting it on the charts? I thought it was an extra confirmation of the trend and that trades are taken only in the direction of the 200ema?

Clarification please...
Hi Olu,

Welcome to the thread and asking your question! the 200ema is a good indication of the Overall trend direction...but if you look back at the charts...price doesn't hang out around the 200ema for that long. It's sorta like a magnet...price moves above&below it. Price moves in cycles and we are just trying to catch some of the pips along the way. Typically it's best to trade is with the overall trend...but say the trend is down and price is way below the 200ma by about 500pips...if you get a signal to go long(countertrend...against the 200ma) that it's typically ok to take it because there is plenty of room to move up towards the 200ma. What you want to avoid is trading when price is bouncing up&down at the 200ma(moving sideways in a range).

The 5 and 20 moving averages are our main signals to trade...and the 200 is just like a guide to help point us in the right direction. I hope that helps...and if I can clarify something else please let me know.

Hope you enjoy this thread!
  • #91
  • Mar 30, 2010 8:04pm Mar 30, 2010 8:04pm
does this trade ticks all the boxes? Wanted to long it at 1.0660 but went to do something and bam it is moving the right way
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf-4h-31032010-0200.jpg Size: 96 KB
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #92
  • Mar 30, 2010 8:09pm Mar 30, 2010 8:09pm
Quoting Olu
does this trade ticks all the boxes? Wanted to long it at 1.0660 but went to do something and bam it is moving the right way
it fits for me i'm not trading that pair right now, but it trades very similar to eu.
  • #93
  • Mar 30, 2010 8:13pm Mar 30, 2010 8:13pm
around noon eastern time, EU gave a signal to look for shorts.

at the asian open, i took the pullback and got a sell price of 1.3436.

i set my target for 30 pips and noticed it was just shy of the bottom of the big down bar.

this is how its done. 30 pips bagged.

Scottie
  • #94
  • Mar 30, 2010 8:54pm Mar 30, 2010 8:54pm
Quoting Olu
does this trade ticks all the boxes? Wanted to long it at 1.0660 but went to do something and bam it is moving the right way

Hi Olu,

I don't trade that pair so I'm not familiar if the 50pip target price works or if you should use a smaller one. That being said, it does look like a valid setup. You had a nice Bullish candle blow by the 5/20 ma's(although the candle was too big to trade at candle close)...you got a nice pullback to the 5&20 ma's where price stalled. Combine this with the 5/20 crossing up and the Macd histogram slopingup and I see a trendline break to the upside...it looks good! Entry should have been at/around the ma's. Nice work on seeing this setup! Keep it up!
  • #95
  • Mar 30, 2010 8:54pm Mar 30, 2010 8:54pm
Quoting Scottie
around noon eastern time, EU gave a signal to look for shorts.

at the asian open, i took the pullback and got a sell price of 1.3436.

i set my target for 30 pips and noticed it was just shy of the bottom of the big down bar.

this is how its done. 30 pips bagged.

Scottie
Great work Scottie...enjoy those pips and see you next trade!
  • #96
  • Mar 30, 2010 11:13pm Mar 30, 2010 11:13pm
Quoting Scottie
around noon eastern time, EU gave a signal to look for shorts.

at the asian open, i took the pullback and got a sell price of 1.3436.

i set my target for 30 pips and noticed it was just shy of the bottom of the big down bar.

this is how its done. 30 pips bagged.

Scottie
Great for you!

I myself am a bit more conservative, so I wait for the last 4hr candle to close which is a bearish engulfing. I entered short at 1.3395.

Seeing that yesterday's daily candle is a bearish engulfing as well, I'll aim for 50 pips for this trade.
  • #97
  • Mar 31, 2010 4:36am Mar 31, 2010 4:36am
Quoting fthingf
Great for you!

I myself am a bit more conservative, so I wait for the last 4hr candle to close which is a bearish engulfing. I entered short at 1.3395.

Seeing that yesterday's daily candle is a bearish engulfing as well, I'll aim for 50 pips for this trade.
Techinically, I think the more conservative thing to do is enter on the pullback to the MAs...that way there is less risk on your trade. If you enter on candle close when price is further away from the ma's, that means the more room price has to move against you before hitting any suppor/resistance. this is especially true on engulfing candles since price closes at the highs on bullish candles and at the lows for bearish ones.

As for the eu trade...I hope you exited on the close of the 0400gmt candle close(1.3432) since price closed above the 5ma AND the 5ma started turning back up AND macd started going higher again. Also that candle makes 4 candles in a row that couldn't close below the big bearish candle from yesterday at 1200gmt. Price spent 16hrs trying to go below/close below 1.3394 and couldn't so it formed a pretty solid base(support area) around that level.
  • #98
  • Mar 31, 2010 5:21am Mar 31, 2010 5:21am
Quoting Tw0eleven
Techinically, I think the more conservative thing to do is enter on the pullback to the MAs...that way there is less risk on your trade. If you enter on candle close when price is further away from the ma's, that means the more room price has to move against you before hitting any suppor/resistance. this is especially true on engulfing candles since price closes at the highs on bullish candles and at the lows for bearish ones.

As for the eu trade...I hope you exited on the close of the 0400gmt candle close(1.3432) since price closed above the...
Right I exited at the close you mentioned. Looks like I really need to look into fine tuning my entry next time. Lesson learned!
  • #99
  • Mar 31, 2010 7:48am Mar 31, 2010 7:48am
A missed trade in the usdchf turned out to be a blessing after all because I would have gunned for 50pips.
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #100
  • Mar 31, 2010 8:13am Mar 31, 2010 8:13am
the reason i posted the trade was to demonstrate how difficult it is to take these entries.

most people that look at my entries at the same time i take them freak out. these entries come from several years of experience and observation. It works for me, but that doesn't mean a new trader could take what i do and immediately make money with it. this one turned out to be quick, but i took one earlier in the week that i was in for 8ish hours that can be a painful wait for those of you who who are used to trading shorter time frames.

my target on the trade was above the bottom of the large bottom candle for a reason as well. The bottoms of those candles can turn into support as was the case last night. i didn't know that it would, i just knew that it could. in addition, this is nfp week and traditionally, when i used to go for a runner on nfp, i'd get torpedoed.

Scottie
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