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  • #20,461
  • Mar 30, 2010 9:55am Mar 30, 2010 9:55am
Quoting George C
If the rate hike is confirmed, there doesn't seem to be much of a reaction yet...
although maybe, from so many speculations, that the hike is almost certain..
we'll still never know until it's really announced
  • #20,462
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:07am Mar 30, 2010 10:07am
OvT, how are you today?

Just back to the computer to see the beginning of this wonderful drop! Glad I placed a short earlier!

Cheers
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,463
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:10am Mar 30, 2010 10:10am
Quoting OvT
won't be confirmed until it's official next tuesday
the 200 pips rally was already the priced in reaction

imagine if they don't raise it in the end, lol
on the other hand if they decide to go ahead with the hike, with this week's pricing in, there shouldn't be too huge a movement (but there should still be)

if the rally yesterday was really mainly/solely because of the rate hike, i'd say it's a bit premature and early for it, being 1 week ahead of the action
It's possible, and what I was thinking about a few moments ago.

Here's one possible scenario how I see it playing out - AUD/USD falls now, re-tests the .9000 and stalls there much like it did last week.

Next week, if the rate hike occurs, it will soar enough to provide a needed corrective movement at those levels, but possibly not enough to reverse the trend (still not sure if this week's move was due to gold or the pricing in of the hike rumours).

On the other hand, if it doesn't occur, it will send it plummeting below .9000 - which is where it should be based on the trend shape anyway.

This scenario is based on the assumption that technicals are enough to bring it back down to last week's levels, and the rate hike will function as a catalyst either for a corrective movement north or a further decline.

Thoughts? Ideas?
  • #20,464
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:12am Mar 30, 2010 10:12am
Quoting MarcVUM
Just back to the computer to see the beginning of this wonderful drop!
The US markets are red (barely); but good, the DOW was up around 40 earlier (and the consumer confidence report was better than expecting); so this reversal should really be a good sign for risk aversion... (the market is so resilient though, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the DOW close up pretty good green; but you never know, we may get a steep drop today... btw, the AUD has a very high correlation the the US stock market, though I'm sure most of you know that).
  • #20,465
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:14am Mar 30, 2010 10:14am
Quoting George C
If the rate hike is confirmed, there doesn't seem to be much of a reaction yet...
George, see how the 9am est candle on the 15min signaled the reversal. That kind of action always takes place on this pair.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,466
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:23am Mar 30, 2010 10:23am
Quoting MarcVUM
George, see how the 9am est candle on the 15min signaled the reversal. That kind of action always takes place on this pair.
Good to know!

Now the big question is whether the reversal will last - and if it does, then not only will us bears be back in black, but it will confirm the strength of the daily trend as well.
  • #20,467
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:26am Mar 30, 2010 10:26am
Quoting kourtney
Averaging and increasing my Shorts on AUD and also GBP/JPY shorting and target 200 pips down on GBPJPY and 100 on AUD

138.18 and 9105 the targets
what is your SL in GJ and from where you are shorting???in AU and GJ?

Ub
  • #20,468
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:34am Mar 30, 2010 10:34am
Quoting George C
Good to know!

Now the big question is whether the reversal will last - and if it does, then not only will us bears be back in black, but it will confirm the strength of the daily trend as well.
Pull up a daily chart and load in a 5 sma. Notice how it rarely goes a day without touching it. You should be safe to about 9110.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,469
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:44am Mar 30, 2010 10:44am
Quoting kourtney
Averaging and increasing my Shorts on AUD and also GBP/JPY shorting and target 200 pips down on GBPJPY and 100 on AUD

138.18 and 9105 the targets
I'm in the same GBP/JPY trade with that target... kinda scary if we can't hit it today or tomorrow though, as the JPY has been weak lately and the GBP is catching a nice bid... this pair can really explode to the upside; any kind of risk aversion should drop it hard though.
  • #20,470
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:46am Mar 30, 2010 10:46am
Quoting thadakman
I'm in the same GBP/JPY trade with that target... kinda scary if we can't hit it today or tomorrow though, as the JPY has been weak lately and the GBP is catching a nice bid... this pair can really explode to the upside; any kind of risk aversion should drop it hard though.
what is your SL and Entry Point?

Ub
  • #20,471
  • Mar 30, 2010 10:59am Mar 30, 2010 10:59am
Quoting ubaidahsan
what is your SL and Entry Point?

Ub
Entry 140.00 and I'm using a planned hedge at 142 (basically a stop/loss; but instead it's more like a "Pause" button I use); I reasses the situation when that occurs and decide my time frame for new targets on the long and short side... it's basically a stop/loss in a way but I'm more comfortable trading this way as I like to catch up and down moves anyway).
  • #20,472
  • Edited 2:22pm Mar 30, 2010 1:55pm | Edited 2:22pm
Anyone trade this pair aud/jpy?
I don't trade it but i Took sell 85.30
Reason on daily chart i could be wrong but i trade what i read on MY chart.
1-weekly top first chart
2-Bearish Bat on daily
3-Fib 61.8 on weekly 3 chart


Any other view?
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  • #20,473
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:15pm Mar 30, 2010 2:15pm
Quoting egkid
Anyone trade this pair aud/jpy?
I don't trade it but i Took sell 85.30
Reason on daily chart i could be wrong but i trade what i read on MY chart.
1-weekly top first chart
2-Bearish Bat on daily


Any other view?

hi egkid,
nice bearish bat you got there,
A/J what I think 89 till next week
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  • #20,474
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:20pm Mar 30, 2010 2:20pm
Quoting egkid
Anyone trade this pair aud/jpy?
I don't trade it but i Took sell 85.30
Reason on daily chart i could be wrong but i trade what i read on MY chart.
1-weekly top first chart
2-Bearish Bat on daily


Any other view?
I've never before but I'm taking a look at it as well. I'm starting to like the aussie pairs alot. As a newbie, they seem to be less volatile and give good pips on a daily basis. Over the past two days I've traded the aud/usd,eur/usd, and the nzd pairs and I'm loving it so far.
  • #20,475
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:31pm Mar 30, 2010 2:31pm
Shahab, IMO we will see a 50% retracement from 9215 to 9110 which happens to correspond to what is now the 5sma on the daily chart. From there we will have to reevaluate the situation.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,476
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:37pm Mar 30, 2010 2:37pm
Retail Sales measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.



Forecast: .3


A negative deviation of .9 should move the market -40 to -70 pips
A positive deviation of 1.1 should move the market +40 to 70 pips
A negative deviation of .5 should move the market -30 to -50 pips
A positive deviation of .5 should move the market +30 to 50 pips



A 100% retracement is common in the following 3 hours. If no conflicts this entry should be good for 60-150 pips.



Retail positioning stands at -1.1 as there are 1.1 sellers for every 1 buyer. This ratio has gone down from 1.28 as traders have taken profits after the 400 pip move from march 26th. For live retail positioning information - click here.



The retail positioning ratio signifies that if there is a + deviation > .9 and price breaks .9215 stops will be hit and price will continue higher.
  • #20,477
  • Mar 30, 2010 5:17pm Mar 30, 2010 5:17pm
good morning all,

my alarm just went off just pulled out my chart and getting ready for AU Retail Sales m/m. they are expecting 0.3% but i have a gut feel of a surprise factor, a deviation of more than 0.6%.

my trading plan for now, after the release, if what i believe is true then i will buy and my profit target will be at least 50 pips (i'm not greedy folks)

on the other hand if deviation won't be 0.6% then down trend will continue.

now the market is in consolidation, on a waiting game most of us who are skeptical enough to jump in the market not unless new figures will be released.

be watchful my friends, i can see a very wild market today




p.s. rate hike next week?
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #20,478
  • Mar 30, 2010 5:22pm Mar 30, 2010 5:22pm
Quoting egkid
Anyone trade this pair aud/jpy?
I don't trade it but i Took sell 85.30
Reason on daily chart i could be wrong but i trade what i read on MY chart.
1-weekly top first chart
2-Bearish Bat on daily
3-Fib 61.8 on weekly 3 chart


Any other view?
nice chart i believe you entered short too early my friend, i believe it will still going to run uphill until 85.70-80 before it will face a very strong resistance. once breached then just the time we can see a strong reversal/ consolidation. but it's always wise to feel and understand market sentiment, and a very clear signal of confirmation before engaging yourself to trade.

preservation of capital
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #20,479
  • Mar 30, 2010 5:25pm Mar 30, 2010 5:25pm
Quoting rpmfxtrader
Retail Sales measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders pay close attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior and is susceptible to surprises.



Forecast: .3


A negative deviation of .9 should move the market -40 to -70 pips
A positive deviation...
nice report there i hope people can digest it and take advantage of the figure release. keep it up bro!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #20,480
  • Mar 30, 2010 5:36pm Mar 30, 2010 5:36pm
morning dongsky,
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