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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #901
  • Mar 29, 2010 6:03pm Mar 29, 2010 6:03pm
for A/u short from .9175 with SL=.9200
I changed the first TP a few pips above daily pivot (TP is .9130 )
  • #902
  • Mar 29, 2010 6:10pm Mar 29, 2010 6:10pm
Hi mate,

Please dont feel its your fault. If anything, its my fault and my bad call. and more importantly Poor Money Management from my side. nobody asked me to enter the trade. It was my call to enter the trade and I take the responsibility for it.

I am still going to hold on to my positions up until the release of the Retail sales because from what I've been hearing from friends working in MYER and David Jones, Feb wasn't a great month for them. I mean they were not that busy so I am betting that the retail sales will be down.

If I lose this trade, it would be a good kick on the backside and I will learn my lesson hard way.

My S/L for the entire lot is 9230




Quoting shahab8b
Thank you mate,
It was a wrong call, as you pointed out. I lost 4% of my equity, it hurts but I'm worried about Puks, I hope he can recover, I feel it's my fault.

Regards
Shahab
  • #903
  • Mar 29, 2010 6:13pm Mar 29, 2010 6:13pm
IMO, A/U still in down trend, and I plan close my trade on Friday
  • #904
  • Mar 29, 2010 7:12pm Mar 29, 2010 7:12pm
Quoting amyc
I think it has topped as well but it may take a while to pick up any momemtum on the downside as I still see some more down side for dx.
I chart dx using NYBOT futures, june contract currently sitting at 81.475, i expect to see approx 81.1 before it turns up for the week, corresponding value of 1.3566 on eu. It wouldn't suprise me to see au hang around the highs for the next 12-24 hours.
  • #905
  • Mar 29, 2010 7:59pm Mar 29, 2010 7:59pm
U/J short :it came down as expected,
I'm bullish on this pair ,
short U/J tp at 91.77 (weekly pivot)

new orders:
buy limit at 91.77 and 91.05 SL=91.50 TP=93 & 97
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #906
  • Mar 30, 2010 3:49am Mar 30, 2010 3:49am
Quoting Geppyg
Eu Targets and Gu Targets

Figure to Figure 1.5050 and 1.4515
Stops are sitting at +100 pips on both pairs..Patiently waiting...
Other than this no open swing trades..

Good day Sir
Both Target have been Achieved...+235 on eu and +200 on GU +435 pips all in all

Still in the Aussie Trade....Currently -30

Good Day
Let Price determine your future!
  • #907
  • Mar 30, 2010 4:03am Mar 30, 2010 4:03am
SSI: EURUSD Ratio Flips, Longs Surge 37% Despite a 4% Rise in Retail Interest
Tuesday, 30 Mar 2010 08:46 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, DailyFX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Intraday Highlight:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.14 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.47 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 37.2% higher than yesterday and 10.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 18.3% lower than yesterday and 33.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.1% stronger than yesterday and 14.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

SSI Details:

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.23 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.41 as 59% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.5% lower than yesterday and 0.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.9% higher than yesterday and 4.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.9% weaker than yesterday and 0.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.08 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 8.3% lower than yesterday and 23.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 19.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.4% weaker than yesterday and 0.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at -1.19 as nearly 54% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.16 as 54% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.0% lower than yesterday and 29.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.0% lower than yesterday and 62.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.4% weaker than yesterday and 1.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 2.03 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.98 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.3% higher than yesterday and 20.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.2% lower than yesterday and 45.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.6% weaker than yesterday and 8.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 4.19 as nearly 81% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.42 as 82% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.7% lower than yesterday and 3.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.8% higher than yesterday and 3.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.3% stronger than yesterday and 14.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -2.17 as nearly 68% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.11 as 68% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.5% higher than yesterday and 3.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.1% higher than yesterday and 32.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.3% stronger than yesterday and 18.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.10 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.01 as 50% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 1.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 7.2% lower than yesterday and 0.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.2% weaker than yesterday and 6.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #908
  • Mar 30, 2010 6:18am Mar 30, 2010 6:18am
attached is the daily trend line. PA is still within the new bearish channel. The recent surge in the price is due to a)Market is aggressively pricing in 50 bps hike in next two meetings which IMHO is absolutely rubbish b) Steve's hawkish speech which basically said the same thing that interest rates "WERE" not be kept at recored lows.

here is the chart. as long as .9230 holds, I am safe. Half of my stop/hedge is at .9230 and the other half will be at .9260.
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  • #909
  • Mar 30, 2010 7:54am Mar 30, 2010 7:54am
Quoting Geppyg
Both Target have been Achieved...+235 on eu and +200 on GU +435 pips all in all

Still in the Aussie Trade....Currently -30

Good Day
G'day Geppyg,
Excellent trading, my compliment.
  • #910
  • Mar 30, 2010 8:03am Mar 30, 2010 8:03am
Quoting Geppyg
1st Aussie short @ 0.9175 Risk 1%
My Target is 9140 for a first and will analyse the trade

Reason for trade:
Scalp 15 mins: 5 Way bridge:
Confluence Zone:
Retracement is now due.

Gold Is also running into resistance....

Good Day
The Trade has not planned out and I will be taking a loss on this position if we do not close below 200 in the next 40 mins.....

Good Day

Geppyg
Let Price determine your future!
  • #911
  • Mar 30, 2010 8:03am Mar 30, 2010 8:03am
Quoting Patience
AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -2.17 as nearly 68% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.11 as 68% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.5% higher than yesterday and 3.4% weaker since last week. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.
G'day Patience.
It seems we are running a sentiment thread with totally ignoring all the sentiment signals.
  • #912
  • Mar 30, 2010 8:05am Mar 30, 2010 8:05am
A/U short from .9175 stopped at SL .9200 -25*2=50 pips
G/U short from 1.4980 stopped at 1.5030 -50 pips
  • #913
  • Mar 30, 2010 8:05am Mar 30, 2010 8:05am
Quoting Geppyg
The Trade has not planned out and I will be taking a loss on this position if we do not close below 200 in the next 40 mins.....

Good Day

Geppyg
Also Dip buying on this pair will commence @9100-9150 zone....Gold Seems like it is being accumalted....
Let Price determine your future!
  • #914
  • Mar 30, 2010 8:07am Mar 30, 2010 8:07am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day Patience.
It seems we are running a sentiment thread with totally ignoring all the sentiment signals.

Hi shah,

Sorry mate I will start posting on my own thread from now...
Have a good day...

Geppyg
Let Price determine your future!
  • #915
  • Mar 30, 2010 8:09am Mar 30, 2010 8:09am
Quoting Geppyg
Hi shah,

Sorry mate I will start posting on my own thread from now...
Have a good day...

Geppyg
that would be great, I'll join you there from time to time.

Regards
Shahab
  • #916
  • Edited 8:23am Mar 30, 2010 8:12am | Edited 8:23am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day Patience.
It seems we are running a sentiment thread with totally ignoring all the sentiment signals.
I was going to post the SSI last night but when I read the thread I saw that a few of you were short on A/U so I didn't want to put a downer on it and make you question your trade. GodfreyH's Jurik indicator also gave me a buy possibility on daily A/J at 10.00 pm last night (but it also gave me one on E/U) so I thought I would see how it played out. A/U hadn't quite given me a buy signal on daily but it has now but 4 hour is looking really stretched. Maybe April Fools Day will deliver a nice downward surprise.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #917
  • Mar 30, 2010 8:22am Mar 30, 2010 8:22am
Quoting Patience
I was going to post the SSI last night but when I read the thread I saw that a few of you were short on A/U so I didn't want to put a downer on it and make you question your trade. My Jurik indicator also gave me a buy possibility on daily A/J at 10.00 pm last night (but it also gave me on on E/U) so I thought I would see how it played out. A/U hadn't quite given me a buy signal on daily but it has now but 4 hour is looking really stretched. Maybe April Fools Day will deliver a nice downward surprise.
Patience, you should have done that, we should emphasize more on sentiment -after all that was the idea of starting this thread,

I made a huge mistake at G/U analysis, I knew a sharp correction is due ,but I was so biased with my short orders that I ignored my previous analysis.
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  • #918
  • Mar 30, 2010 8:32am Mar 30, 2010 8:32am
Quoting shahab8b
Patience, you should have done that, we should emphasize more on sentiment -after all that was the idea of starting this thread,

I made a huge mistake at G/U analysis, I knew a sharp correction is due ,but I was so biased with my short orders that I ignored my previous analysis.
But, as you pointed out in the COT, the A/U boat is pretty full. This might just be month/quarter end shenanigans and Easter/NFP positioning. I'm finding it difficult trying to short A/U while at the same time looking for dips to long A/J so I'm just going to concentrate on A/J more. I totally understand the interest rate differential with traders though. It's been very lucrative even for me with little positions especially when I can't be bothered trading. Had to suffer a little pain with the downdraft but now I need another correction so I can load some more.

It is very easy to fall into this trap especially when your trading is going well. I've been there so many times and like you said, when you do a post-mortem on the trade, you wonder how on earth you missed it.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #919
  • Mar 30, 2010 8:58am Mar 30, 2010 8:58am
E/U: that one was the sell limit order at 1.3525 that I mentioned before but I no longer suggested here after getting hit hard at A/U short
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  • #920
  • Mar 30, 2010 9:09am Mar 30, 2010 9:09am
Hi mate,

You didn't reply to my post but PLEASE dont feel bad about your bad call on AUD. I took call myself and still holding on to it. will partial hedge at .9216 and then again partial hedge at .9255

I am betting on worse than expected retail sales and no interest rate hike next week.

lets see what happens.

cheers



Quoting shahab8b
E/U: that one was the sell limit order at 1.3525 that I mentioned before but I no longer suggested here after getting hit hard at A/U short
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