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AUD/USD

  • #20,401
  • Mar 30, 2010 1:19am Mar 30, 2010 1:19am
HOW LONG CAN YOU GO, ATM PRICE IS 0.9206
  • #20,402
  • Mar 30, 2010 1:25am Mar 30, 2010 1:25am
Guys by the way an easy trade short gbp/jpy for 100 pips target 138.16 will be fast done youll see
  • #20,403
  • Mar 30, 2010 1:27am Mar 30, 2010 1:27am
Quoting MarcVUM
Mind-boggling. I haven't seen anything like this since the fall of 2009. Let's see what London does for us.
Yup, considering that we're now poking 0.9200 - if there's one place where it will reverse before testing the Daily TL, this is it.
  • #20,404
  • Mar 30, 2010 1:28am Mar 30, 2010 1:28am
looks like AUDUSD is not even look back...
  • #20,405
  • Mar 30, 2010 1:39am Mar 30, 2010 1:39am
be cautious my friends for the reversal is iminent here, check 1H divergence and price is near reaching a strong resistance @0.9116.

Be watchful... that's all i'm sayin'
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #20,406
  • Mar 30, 2010 1:42am Mar 30, 2010 1:42am
back to the basics, "dont fight the trend"
  • #20,407
  • Mar 30, 2010 1:42am Mar 30, 2010 1:42am
my analysis is telling me that after london open, the market will consolidate and then reverse, but it will be just temporary because the pair still bullish on a longger time frame... always watch your trade!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #20,408
  • Mar 30, 2010 1:44am Mar 30, 2010 1:44am
Am out of my long trade now. Bullish divergence, although not completely played out on the Daily TF, is near enough for me. And the rise has been a rapid one which usually means retrace.
  • #20,409
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:08am Mar 30, 2010 2:08am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Am out of my long trade now. Bullish divergence, although not completely played out on the Daily TF, is near enough for me. And the rise has been a rapid one which usually means retrace.
hi mate,

when you say retrace, what levels are you watching?

cheers
  • #20,410
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:16am Mar 30, 2010 2:16am
200 pips rally in 2 days? am i right?
  • #20,411
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:17am Mar 30, 2010 2:17am
This is because market is pricing in another rate rise next week which IMHO is not going to happen.

Imagine the fall then!!!


Quoting OvT
200 pips rally in 2 days? am i right?
  • #20,412
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:20am Mar 30, 2010 2:20am
Quoting puks
This is because market is pricing in another rate rise next week which IMHO is not going to happen.

Imagine the fall then!!!
yep, she is being built up so fast so much
i'll be watching closely for short signals
  • #20,413
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:23am Mar 30, 2010 2:23am
Quoting puks
hi mate,

when you say retrace, what levels are you watching?

cheers
Honestly, I have no clue, but I would expect price to come back to test 0.9135 at some stage. i'll be watching my charts for signs of divergence and overbought/sold conditions.

Not sure why the market is getting so buoyant. Looks a bit trappish to me, but we'll see.
  • #20,414
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:27am Mar 30, 2010 2:27am
george, where is your limit for this rally before it comes down?
  • #20,415
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:31am Mar 30, 2010 2:31am
Here's one interesting observation - apparently, there's a very close correlation between AUD/USD and AUD/JPY.

Eyeballing the Daily TF of the latter, it seems it's about to complete a classic head-and-shoulders pattern, with a consequent plummet (although not guaranteed - there seems to be a lot of upward pressure there as well).

If this correlation is accepted as indicative, it may give us some clue on where our dear AUD/USD is headed next.

Note, however, that trading correlations is not my strength, so if someone more experienced in this field wishes to chime in and dispute what I just wrote, feel free.
  • #20,416
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:35am Mar 30, 2010 2:35am
Quoting OvT
george, where is your limit for this rally before it comes down?
Anything convincingly above .9250 - the previous high of the trend - is, to me, the highest probability indication that the bear trend is over.

What's happening right now, while uncomfortable to every bear, still falls within the bearish downtrend on the Daily chart.

Once that trend is convincingly broken, it's time to get the hell out
  • #20,417
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:41am Mar 30, 2010 2:41am
Quoting OvT
200 pips rally in 2 days? am i right?
more or less...you got the right picture there mate!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #20,418
  • Mar 30, 2010 3:03am Mar 30, 2010 3:03am
NetDania's 4H candle just closed, looking every bit like a shooting star with a bullish body.

The candle formed as a result of the bounceback off .9212, suggesting that the price is having difficulty breaching the resistance level formed by a combination of the psychological resistance associated with a round number and the previous 4H swing high.

The .9200 resistance is the second-to-last check of trend sustainability; if it is broken, the next resistance will also be the Daily TL and, followed closely by it, the Daily swing high at .9251, and a breach of that should be the definitive end of the bear trend.

If, however, the price bounces back here, we may very well see a resumption of the expected bearish trend and a victory for the bears after all.
  • #20,419
  • Mar 30, 2010 3:44am Mar 30, 2010 3:44am
Whats wrong with AU, ausy is look strong..
EU already retrace >50pips..
  • #20,420
  • Mar 30, 2010 3:48am Mar 30, 2010 3:48am
Quoting anung
Whats wrong with AU, ausy is look strong..
EU already retrace >50pips..
yep, this 200 pips rally of aus strength has lost its correlation with other pairs, like e/u and gold
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