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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #59,501
  • Mar 29, 2010 8:50pm Mar 29, 2010 8:50pm
Quoting jarroo
Easy low risk trade for 30-40 pips. And maybe more.
Jarroo, where do you usually place your stop for IBs?
Above the mother candle or above the IB?

I've been experimenting, and I prefer a variation of the 2 depending on how the IB sets up.

Quoting supremeChaos
DanGilbert 'coined' a term for (possible) breakouts off of multiple IB's:
here. in other words, Dale's Doubles or IxB's.

Oh, btw, SC, Jarroo, I find the IxBs concept quite interesting too. Its to me an application bollinger: shrinking volatility leads to expanding volatility.
If we think about it market structure wise, it's in essence a bull-bear fight (I'm thinking 3500 on Fiber yest)... only one side can win, so we see an eventual "pop".
Magnitude varies of course. =)
One Mind, Any Market
  • #59,502
  • Edited 9:06pm Mar 29, 2010 8:53pm | Edited 9:06pm
Quoting Cyrus
If we think about it market structure wise, it's in essence a bull-bear war... only one side can win, so we see an eventual "pop".
Magnitude varies of course. =)
Or no one is interested in taking a large position either way

Quoting roundrock
There is a bullish pendant on USDJPY, now its broken, it could go down 50% of that pole
I think you need to zoom out and take the bars in context. Oh, and forget pennants/flags, because they are dodgy signals at best.


Quoting supremeChaos
good observation & memory.
but hey, i thought u hate indicators? u are using a concept from Bollinger bands, lol
Bollinger bands hardly have copyright on standard deviation and moving averages
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #59,503
  • Mar 29, 2010 8:53pm Mar 29, 2010 8:53pm
Quoting Cyrus
Jarroo, where do you usually place your stop for IBs?
Above the mother candle or above the IB?

I've been experimenting, and I prefer a variation of the 2 depending on how the IB sets up.




Oh, btw, SC, Jarroo, I find the IxBs concept quite interesting too. Its to me an application bollinger: shrinking volatility leads to expanding volatility.
If we think about it market structure wise, it's in essence a bull-bear fight (I'm thinking 3500 on Fiber yest)... only one side can win, so we see an eventual "pop".
Magnitude varies of course....
I like it above the IB itself, smaller risk.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #59,504
  • Mar 29, 2010 8:55pm Mar 29, 2010 8:55pm
Quoting Cyrus
...
Oh, btw, SC, Jarroo, I find the IxBs concept quite interesting too. Its to me an application bollinger: shrinking volatility leads to expanding volatility.
...
good observation & memory.
but hey, i thought u hate indicators? u are using a concept from Bollinger bands, lol
  • #59,505
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:05pm Mar 29, 2010 9:05pm
Quoting joelcf
Or no one is interested in taking a large position either way ...
the smart money wants us to stay in a range again, this time between 92 & 93
just like recently, range between 90 & 91.00
  • #59,506
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:34pm Mar 29, 2010 9:34pm
Quoting supremeChaos
good observation & memory.
but hey, i thought u hate indicators? u are using a concept from Bollinger bands, lol
I don't hate indicators mate. I just prefer my charts clean.
The only things worth keeping are monthly pivots and 200/365ma.
PA PPZ all the way.

Quoting joelcf
Bollinger bands hardly have copyright on standard deviation and moving averages
You said it champ.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #59,507
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:41pm Mar 29, 2010 9:41pm
Quoting joelcf
...
Bollinger bands hardly have copyright on standard deviation and moving averages
Hahah, i knew either of you would say something like that
  • #59,508
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:46pm Mar 29, 2010 9:46pm
Quoting joelcf
I think you need to zoom out and take the bars in context. Oh, and forget pennants/flags, because they are dodgy signals at best.
WTF?!

Holy snappin' tootles!!! ...I better stop making money off them right now!

...before the universe collapses or some shit.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #59,509
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:55pm Mar 29, 2010 9:55pm
Quoting KissFan
What is a "squeeze alert"? Is it an IB to an IB?

K.I.S.S.
yep!

it's called "squeeze alert" lol
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Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #59,510
  • Mar 29, 2010 10:01pm Mar 29, 2010 10:01pm
Quoting bundyraider

...I better stop making money off them right now!
Agreed.

Isn't a wedge the same as a pennant? I think Mike trades those as well.

I think they are a great sign of consolidation, and typically lead to nice breakouts in my experience.

Just my opinion.

Cory
  • #59,511
  • Mar 29, 2010 10:05pm Mar 29, 2010 10:05pm
Quoting Cbh123
Agreed.

Isn't a wedge the same as a pennant? I think Mike trades those as well.

I think they are a great sign of consolidation, and typically lead to nice breakouts in my experience.

Just my opinion.

Cory
Yes I sure do trade them as breakout patterns with pullbacks and PA. Like anything else its about location, look, and how you trade them.

Mike
  • #59,512
  • Mar 29, 2010 10:15pm Mar 29, 2010 10:15pm
Quoting roundrock
There is a bullish pendant on USDJPY
http://www.baseinchina.com/up_files/...ll-Pendant.jpg
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #59,513
  • Edited 11:40pm Mar 29, 2010 11:29pm | Edited 11:40pm
Quoting bundyraider
WTF?!

Holy snappin' tootles!!! ...I better stop making money off them right now!

...before the universe collapses or some shit.
hey, if it works for you then knock yourself out I just think both are pretty dicey.

Personally, I've found flags to be completely unreliable, unless you treat them like a retracement. Which, I'm sure you would agree, are pretty worthless in isolation. With some confluence, they work the same as any other retracement play.

And pennants are really just inside bars/IxBs (or, more correctly, range deflation), which are only really tradeable at the right location - the reasons behind them vary so much than a Technical Analysis for Dummies type approach which advocates trading them on a break either way is just a losing strategy. Trying to trade a flag caused by the leadup to a big announcement with one caused by a holiday period is just...

Just seen people lose alot of money 'pattern matching' - they see a formation that looks like a picture in their book, and so they autotrade it and lose $10k in a day because they didnt look any deeper than 'that totally looks like a descending triangle wedge flag breakout!'. A sad but true tale. And hopefully not something people in here would do, given how hard Jim (and Jim) hammer things like location and confluence into us.

(the amount this particular person lost trying to trade candle patterns was disgusting. would have been better off getting a bottle of single malt and hitting the casino. they have also written published 'technical trading' articles)
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #59,514
  • Mar 29, 2010 11:48pm Mar 29, 2010 11:48pm
Quoting joelcf
hey...
(the amount this particular person lost trying to trade candle patterns was disgusting. would have been better off getting a bottle of single malt and hitting the casino. they have also written published 'technical trading' articles)
can u share who this guy or these people are?
Thanks
  • #59,515
  • Edited 1:21am Mar 30, 2010 12:02am | Edited 1:21am
Quoting Nustra
you will have to be really smart and lucky to trade IB's successfully on a 1H timeframe. i learnt this the hard way: that is why after following this thread for years, i thought i could do it... you know, multiply my accounts and all those stuff.... anyway, i now realise i couldn't so am all out for James' methods and its working.
People really dont understand the power of short term noise to take your trade, turn it around on you and beat you to a pulp. That's the real power of longer timeframes, in my mind anyways - smoothness and predictablity. It's also why people suck at trading the 5m tf, unless they are Ryan - they try treating it as if it were a daily chart. People dont think about how much money it takes to change a daily bar as opposed to a 5m bar.

Also, you probably have to think a bit more deeply about things sometimes. You honestly think anyone else in the world is looking at your random fibbonacci retracement you drew on the 3m timeframe? They arent. Which means that it exists only in your head.

The downsides? Well, you dont look like a mega-awesome-elite-daytrader unless you are standing at a desk in front of 12 monitors trading the 5m charts, Swordfish-style. Anything less x-treme is just sissy trading!

Quoting TiaForex
I know they are great for the futures markets but do you find them great for forex too Jim? Just curious as the jury's been out for me on that one.
Add yesterday's open/close and high/low to your charts. Usually, high/low works best, but there are a handful of pairs that the o/c seem to work more heavily - probably has something to do with the people and/or algos dominating that particular market.

Since then, I've added floor trader pivots, but only R1/S1, and only where there is an active, liquid futures contract for the same pair. I dont really use them in isolation, but they line up with PPZs pretty often, and when they do it gives a pretty strong area to watch.

Obv there is a balance there - some people take it to extremes with daily/weekly/monthly/yearly pivots, and then loudly proclaim how well they line up with their charts. Of course they do, retard, you just drew 400 lines on there.

Quoting supremeChaos
can u share who this guy or these people are?
Thanks
I was using 'they' in the gramatically-dicey singular pronoun form. And I'd rather not publically libel people with better lawyers than I
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #59,516
  • Edited 2:26am Mar 30, 2010 12:42am | Edited 2:26am
Quoting james16
what the hell is a tax return?
The time of year when dumb people celebrate that the Government gave them back a small proportion of money that they overcharged them and kept for (up to) 12 months, interest free. Anytime someone think their Government sux, I challenge them to move to Australia.


Damn this thread moves fast. You look away for a week and its like an extra thousand posts.

Quoting StoragePro
Got any old links laying around? Love to see this.
These are cut/pasted from a notebook, so they could be dead by now

Barber (2005) is probably the best jumpoff point.
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...ract_id=529063

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...ract_id=600084
http://www.devriesinvestmentservices...iversiteit.pdf
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=1343519
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...ract_id=364000
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...ract_id=472182

Most of my papers arent at work though, so I will have a rumble when i get home.

I also have a ton of scanned articles from the pre-internet days that looked at the same thing, but the landscape has changed pretty significantly since then.

Quoting StoragePro
There is such a body of folklore out here....
Agreed. The whole 'trading author' scene seems pretty close knit (or inbred, depending on how nice you want to be) and it just turns into a big self-reinforcing spiral. One guy says something, another one quotes him, then a third guy quotes the second, and pretty soon the entire basis for the argument is lost, and it becomes the next 'cut your losers, let your winners run' or 'trade 2%'.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #59,517
  • Mar 30, 2010 1:34am Mar 30, 2010 1:34am
Quote
I think Dale looks for these type of IB setups for a reason


Quote
Easy low risk trade for 30-40 pips. And maybe more


I like easy low risk trades

Great catch jarroo

(when fly fishing you make a lot of light quick cast's and catch a nice fish in the process, However they are not random casts, you cast where you think the fish are, or A++ Locations)
  • #59,518
  • Mar 30, 2010 1:41am Mar 30, 2010 1:41am
Dale, Great!
a new analogy for me (fly fishing)
  • #59,519
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:27am Mar 30, 2010 2:27am
Here is a pic someone fly fishing

and some links

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Few2u...eature=related

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4wuQblQmH0
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  • #59,520
  • Mar 30, 2010 2:54am Mar 30, 2010 2:54am
Quoting Dale
I like easy low risk trades

Great catch jarroo

(when fly fishing you make a lot of light quick cast's and catch a nice fish in the process, However they are not random casts, you cast where you think the fish are, or A++ Locations)
Hey Dale.

This one looked good. At a swing high, with the over all trend down, although the short term was up. 138.00 was an obvious TP and is now acting as support.

Nice little trade that had long term potential. I didn't take the "stop and reverse" which looked good after it broke hard.

Casting is more enjoyable when you get to keep the same bait (capital).


Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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