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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #5,961
  • Mar 29, 2010 12:50pm Mar 29, 2010 12:50pm
Quoting frankkn
that is very interesting! thanks for sharing your knowledge.

how do you define the range in a situation like this? the high and the low of the day? since the london open? ny open?
I can see it on the 4H chart, it has reached the top and bottom of the range a few times now.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Range 4H.png Size: 20 KB
  • #5,962
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:03pm Mar 29, 2010 1:03pm
the market is dead slow today
  • #5,963
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:04pm Mar 29, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting shahroor
the market is dead slow today

eu is being an asshole today

seriously eu what gives? is there some sort of fundamental thing going on or is it that the bears got a thorn in their paw from that gap (like me)
  • #5,964
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:11pm Mar 29, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting shahroor
the market is dead slow today
Very slow for some reason. Maybe the EURAUD took all the energy from the rest of the Euro crosses...

--NM
  • #5,965
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:41pm Mar 29, 2010 1:41pm
on the five minute chart with the white background, price has been consolidating at those two red lines. i got those lines from the chart on the left which is a daily chart of the past month

i drew a ab=cd pattern, and the 2 harmonic projections line up, around 1.3425.

the 2 projections:

for the CD line i duplicated AB and just dragged it

then i used a fib to see what the retrace of AB was, at point C and this is the 78 retrace, so we use a 1.27 profection of BC to see a potential price reversal zone, this is at 1.3426 and the AB=CD projection is at 1.3425

so if we break the triangle down, that may be the 2 from the 1-2-3
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: abcd.jpg Size: 157 KB
  • #5,966
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:00pm Mar 29, 2010 2:00pm
check out this longer term bearish AB=CD

i duplicated AB and dragged it to project it from b. i made it dashed.

i fibbed AB, to see if C was closer to 78 or 61 to determine what the BC projection would be.

fib for the BC projection, make the 127 the only non-hidden level (we chose 127 because the AB retrace (at pint c) was 78)

these line up harmonically with the down trend line from december

edit:

the pink line drawn from B to C was drawn sloppily...the retrace and projection were aligned with price not the trend line. this means that the CD line should be to the left a little...not that that matters.. look for a pin bar or something up near D if price makes it there
Attached Image
  • #5,967
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:11pm Mar 29, 2010 3:11pm
Quoting frankkn
check out this longer term bearish AB=CD

i duplicated AB and dragged it to project it from b. i made it dashed.

i fibbed AB, to see if C was closer to 78 or 61 to determine what the BC projection would be.

fib for the BC projection, make the 127 the only non-hidden level (we chose 127 because the AB retrace (at pint c) was 78)

these line up harmonically with the down trend line from december

edit:

the pink line drawn from B to C was drawn sloppily...the retrace and projection were aligned with price not the trend line. this means that...
Lets look at it this way, we are at a resistance level on the daily and back to the trend line, from here we can only wait and see what it does. There is no way to predict it so we just react to it.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUDaily.png Size: 18 KB
  • #5,968
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:21pm Mar 29, 2010 4:21pm
The EURAUD is slowly creeping downward even after that big move. It might be slow but its still sinking.

--NM
  • #5,969
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:38pm Mar 29, 2010 4:38pm
Quoting NightMoves
The EURAUD is slowly creeping downward even after that big move. It might be slow but its still sinking.

--NM
I am looking for a short at the 50% fib at 1.48. Cause that downtrend won't be broken for a while (hopefully)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud h4 29.3.2010.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #5,970
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:48pm Mar 29, 2010 4:48pm
Quoting Custos
I am looking for a short at the 50% fib at 1.48. Cause that downtrend won't be broken for a while (hopefully)
I have my SL placed about 26 pips above that, this is a pretty strong down trend for sure.

--NM
  • #5,971
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:52pm Mar 29, 2010 4:52pm
On a different note, as most of you know I am thinking about how to exploit a trend like the eur/aud even better than I already do.
Now I have two different concepts in mind for a downtrend like the one happening on eur/aud.

1. Removing my targets and adding on each retracement. And just close out all positions once price breaches a high (in a downtrend).

2. taking profit at predetermined targets as usual (last swing low and extension of swing). But when price retraces back up, I would not only enter a new position but also with the previously closed out position. Thus increasing my lotsize each time.

Advantages of the first approach is that in a good down-trend I won't miss any action of that down-trend, but I would definitely have to bear some drawdown when price retraces.

Advantages of the second approach is that I won't have to endure drawdown like in the first approach, but on occasion I may miss a move if price isn't giving a bpc or not retracing back to the area I thought it would retrace to.

I hope I don't bore you guys with my thoughts here. Just interesting to discuss in my opinion.
So what are your opinions?
  • #5,972
  • Edited 6:10pm Mar 29, 2010 5:59pm | Edited 6:10pm
Quoting Custos
On a different note, as most of you know I am thinking about how to exploit a trend like the eur/aud even better than I already do.
Now I have two different concepts in mind for a downtrend like the one happening on eur/aud.

1. Removing my targets and adding on each retracement. And just close out all positions once price breaches a high (in a downtrend).

2. taking profit at predetermined targets as usual (last swing low and extension of swing). But when price retraces back up, I would not only enter a new position but also with the previously...
You know if markets were always consistant then it would be and easy decision. I try to stay in as long as I can. I will bank some profits but I will follow it with my stop. And I do that different ways too. I have never added to a position with each retracement I usually start scaling down, but it would be interesting to see how well the concept works.

Again if the markets were consistant then the choice would be easy so I guess some experimenting is in order.

--NM
  • #5,973
  • Mar 29, 2010 7:19pm Mar 29, 2010 7:19pm
I am watching the GJ pair too so a heads up on that pair.

--NM
  • #5,974
  • Mar 29, 2010 7:23pm Mar 29, 2010 7:23pm
Hmmm looks like most of the yen crosses need to be watched...

--NM
  • #5,975
  • Mar 29, 2010 7:41pm Mar 29, 2010 7:41pm
Do you swing trade full time Night Moves ?
  • #5,976
  • Mar 29, 2010 7:42pm Mar 29, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting NightMoves
Hmmm looks like most of the yen crosses need to be watched...

--NM
Maybe thats all they needed was slight news push to get them started again?

--NM
  • #5,977
  • Mar 29, 2010 7:43pm Mar 29, 2010 7:43pm
Quoting flipnfaith
Do you swing trade full time Night Moves ?
No Not full time, but I am continuously monitoring looking for the good entries. I can trade while I work so it makes it kind of handy that way.

--NM
  • #5,978
  • Mar 29, 2010 7:48pm Mar 29, 2010 7:48pm
Hi Custos,

Consider looking at the close and X% from that price point.

Closed today at 100.0000 @ .25% = 25 pips

Add a position if price retraces 25 pips.

% needs to be determined for each pair.

Maybe "X" % of ADR?

Only invest "X" % of the profit at the time of this event and have a minimum amount of profit to do it.

Stop can have various plans to deal with risk, from the same dollar risk of the first trade, to putting 100% of the profit dollars and original stop dollar risk, on the line.

Might consider 2 separate trades on the same pair. One as now - one with new compounding plan.

Good luck,
BR


Quoting Custos
On a different note, as most of you know I am thinking about how to exploit a trend like the eur/aud even better than I already do.
Now I have two different concepts in mind for a downtrend like the one happening on eur/aud.

1. Removing my targets and adding on each retracement. And just close out all positions once price breaches a high (in a downtrend).

2. taking profit at predetermined targets as usual (last swing low and extension of swing). But when price retraces back up, I would not only enter a new position but also with the previously...
  • #5,979
  • Mar 29, 2010 7:50pm Mar 29, 2010 7:50pm
Already in CJ from the last go round. If AU will join it, I might be able to enjoy eating dinner!
BR

Quoting NightMoves
Hmmm looks like most of the yen crosses need to be watched...

--NM
  • #5,980
  • Mar 29, 2010 7:52pm Mar 29, 2010 7:52pm
Quoting Custos
On a different note, as most of you know I am thinking about how to exploit a trend like the eur/aud even better than I already do.
Now I have two different concepts in mind for a downtrend like the one happening on eur/aud.

1. Removing my targets and adding on each retracement. And just close out all positions once price breaches a high (in a downtrend).

2. taking profit at predetermined targets as usual (last swing low and extension of swing). But when price retraces back up, I would not only enter a new position but also with the previously...
well, keep in mind, eur/aud is approaching all-time lows of '97 at 1.42-1.44, that was when it was ECN
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