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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #881
  • Mar 29, 2010 10:55am Mar 29, 2010 10:55am
Quoting shahab8b
Thank you mate,
It was a wrong call, as you pointed out. I lost 4% of my equity, it hurts but I'm worried about Puks, I hope he can recover, I feel it's my fault.

Regards
Shahab
Dont be silly, you do not provide a service here on Fx which people pay for.
Secondly Puks I guess has had a couple of bad hits in the last month hence he is trying to gain mommentum for his losses....but with the incorrect money mangement things can get very messy....

Forex is a very risky game...and 50% risk is just a wow factor for me....
1% to 3% is the maximum risk I take 10% on very aggresive trades ie high one touch probability setups...Never more than that ....

Have a good day
Be calm and patient...
Things will work out.....
Let Price determine your future!
  • #882
  • Mar 29, 2010 10:59am Mar 29, 2010 10:59am
Quoting shahab8b
This man is better be right this time (R.Prechter), one year ago he said Gold had topped (sure it did) , in his new edition when the indices fell in Jan he said that's the start of 3rd wave of bear market. (the edition worth $800 at first) then when the stocks started going up he made that edition available for free. he has been wrong couple of times in a row but as he is a very good analyst (he really is one of the best) this time he may be right, we will see.
Well I'm no technical pro but even I think they need a correction just based on how far PA is away from my moving averages. And I'll give that little tip away for free

That death cross got me looking at the EUR. It was definitely the death knell for this one. The cross point was at 1.4376. The only way was down. Will keep this little death cross in the back of my mind.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #883
  • Edited 11:42am Mar 29, 2010 11:31am | Edited 11:42am
Autopsy: it means "a post-mortem examinations ,is a medical procedure that consists of a thorough examination of a corpse to determine the cause and manner of death and to evaluate any disease or injury that may be present."

 I wish I would have noticed this obvious ab=cd earlier, it was a classic buy signal and we went short.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #884
  • Mar 29, 2010 11:48am Mar 29, 2010 11:48am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Thank you mate,
It was a wrong call, as you pointed out. I lost 4% of my equity, it hurts but I'm worried about Puks, I hope he can recover, I feel it's my fault.

Regards
Shahab
Hey there Shahab,

AUD also hit me hard today. had 2 trades and both also SL.
(my EUR, GBP and CHF ended safe with some small profits)
But taking a loss is always in the cards..
With a reasonable moneymanagement it should not be the end of an account.
(Sure hope as well Puks will recover...but 50% is extreme )

As GeppyG also pointed out already. You are not providing a service that we are paying you for. If we take a trade according to your setups, still everyone is doing that on his own risk.. and sure nobody will blame you!

Keep on your good work!

Regards, Tuner
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #885
  • Mar 29, 2010 12:05pm Mar 29, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab,

AUD also hit me hard today. had 2 trades and both also SL.
(my EUR, GBP and CHF ended safe with some small profits)
But taking a loss is always in the cards..
With a reasonable moneymanagement it should not be the end of an account.
(Sure hope as well Puks will recover...but 50% is extreme )

As GeppyG also pointed out already. You are not providing a service that we are paying you for. If we take a trade according to your setups, still everyone is doing that on his own risk.. and sure nobody will blame you!

Keep on your good...
Hi Tuner, sorry to hear about your loss. and thanks for your comment.
btw , did you close your first G/U and sell again at 1.4980?
  • #886
  • Mar 29, 2010 12:08pm Mar 29, 2010 12:08pm
Gold didnt pick my sell limit order, it was a bit high.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #887
  • Mar 29, 2010 12:16pm Mar 29, 2010 12:16pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Tuner, sorry to hear about your loss. and thanks for your comment.
btw , did you close your first G/U and sell again at 1.4980?
yw...
Yes I did close the first one for 20 pips. But didn't go for the second one
I will stand aside for a while now maybe. Till the "rollercoaster" found an end.

Took some scalps here and there...CAD brought me some first 35 pips back for now.
Recovery-mode: on
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #888
  • Mar 29, 2010 12:16pm Mar 29, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting EurekaForex
Hi all here,

I love this thread because of the quality of analysis here,, keep up the good work guys..

shahab8b here is the options maturity calender from ifrmarkets.com .. i think it might help you with your trades.
thanx EurekaForex for your comment and input.
  • #889
  • Mar 29, 2010 12:17pm Mar 29, 2010 12:17pm
Quoting Tuner
yw...
Yes I did close the first one for 20 pips. But didn't go for the second one
I will stand aside for a while now maybe. Till the "rollercoaster" found an end.

Took some scalps here and there...CAD brought me some first 35 pips back for now.
Recovery-mode: on
good
  • #890
  • Mar 29, 2010 12:49pm Mar 29, 2010 12:49pm
Good info for FX options, thanks.
Quoting EurekaForex
Hi all here,

I love this thread because of the quality of analysis here,, keep up the good work guys..

shahab8b here is the options maturity calender from ifrmarkets.com .. i think it might help you with your trades.
  • #891
  • Mar 29, 2010 1:58pm Mar 29, 2010 1:58pm
Here you go puks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Let Price determine your future!
  • #892
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:32pm Mar 29, 2010 3:32pm
Written by Danske Bank Mar 29 10

During the week covered by the data, speculative investors added to bets that the EUR would decline. Sentiment towards the EUR soured as concerns arose about whether a rescue package for Greece would be reached, causing EUR/USD to dip back below 1.35. As a result, short EUR positioning is approaching 40% of open interest, pointing to an increasingly crowded trade.
Short positioning in GBP increased, as speculative investors added short contracts to the value of USD0.6bn to their books.
Speculative investors increased their long MXN positions further, causing positioning to become even more crowded.
The build-up of long positions in the currencies of the dollar-bloc continued during the week covered by the data, most notably in AUD. In fact, long positioning in AUD rose to well above 50% of open interest
Attached Image
  • #893
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:34pm Mar 29, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting Geppyg
Here you go puks
1st Aussie short @ 0.9175 Risk 1%
My Target is 9140 for a first and will analyse the trade

Reason for trade:
Scalp 15 mins: 5 Way bridge:
Confluence Zone:
Retracement is now due.

Gold Is also running into resistance....

Good Day
Let Price determine your future!
  • #894
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:43pm Mar 29, 2010 3:43pm
Quoting Geppyg
1st Aussie short @ 0.9175 Risk 1%
My Target is 9140 for a first and will analyse the trade

Reason for trade:
Scalp 15 mins: 5 Way bridge:
Confluence Zone:
Retracement is now due.

Gold Is also running into resistance....

Good Day
Nice set up, and perfect timing,

I read this"Australia dollar is the best performer today, boosted by hawkish comments from RBA Governor Stevens. Stevens said that it's unwise to "leave interest rates right down at rock bottom any longer than you need," and interest rates may need to continue to rise to contain inflation. There are increasing speculation that RBA will hike again by another 25bps on April 6."
may be the market has already priced the rate hike.I'm taking short along side you,my target is .9125

SHORT A/U .9175 SL=.9200 TP=.9125
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #895
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:43pm Mar 29, 2010 4:43pm
Quoting Geppyg
1st Aussie short @ 0.9175 Risk 1%
My Target is 9140 for a first and will analyse the trade

Reason for trade:
Scalp 15 mins: 5 Way bridge:
Confluence Zone:
Retracement is now due.

Gold Is also running into resistance....

Good Day
Reason for trade:
Scalp 15 mins: 5 Way bridge:---Completed..so far so good...
Confluence Zone:---Already entered
Retracement is now due.-----SPOT ON ANYTIME NOW...
Let Price determine your future!
  • #896
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:46pm Mar 29, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting shahab8b
Nice set up, and perfect timing,

I read this"Australia dollar is the best performer today, boosted by hawkish comments from RBA Governor Stevens. Stevens said that it's unwise to "leave interest rates right down at rock bottom any longer than you need," and interest rates may need to continue to rise to contain inflation. There are increasing speculation that RBA will hike again by another 25bps on April 6."
may be the market has already priced the rate hike.I'm taking short along side you,my target is .9125

SHORT A/U .9175 SL=.9200 TP=.9125...
I have just taken this same trade as well with same SL, but I am targeting 8981.
  • #897
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:55pm Mar 29, 2010 4:55pm
Quoting Geppyg
Reason for trade:
Scalp 15 mins: 5 Way bridge:---Completed..so far so good...
Confluence Zone:---Already entered
Retracement is now due.-----SPOT ON ANYTIME NOW...
  • #898
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:00pm Mar 29, 2010 5:00pm
Quoting amyc
I have just taken this same trade as well with same SL, but I am targeting 8981.

what a nice RRR, it's possible that it has already topped here , I'll TP at .9125 then SL>B/E for 2nd, this pair is tough to short, when it goes down at any level there are buyers waiting to ride the interest rate difference , when the SL's start to be taken out ,there will be a sharp fall (may below .90 handle) let's see how this short will play out.

G/L
  • #899
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:07pm Mar 29, 2010 5:07pm
Quoting shahab8b
what a nice RRR, it's possible that it has already topped here , I'll TP at .9125 then SL>B/E for 2nd, this pair is tough to short, when it goes down at any level there are buyers waiting to ride the interest rate difference , when the SL's start to be taken out ,there will be a sharp fall (may below .90 handle) let's see how this short will play out.

G/L
I think it has topped as well but it may take a while to pick up any momemtum on the downside as I still see some more down side for dx.
  • #900
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:21pm Mar 29, 2010 5:21pm
Quoting amyc
I think it has topped as well but it may take a while to pick up any momemtum on the downside as I still see some more down side for dx.
The Dollar index charts
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily dollar index charts8.gif Size: 21 KB
Let Price determine your future!
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