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AUD/USD

  • #20,321
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:01pm Mar 29, 2010 2:01pm
Quoting Saxon
Ya, we did go through it a little while ago. My concern is that on the way back down, it will prevent us from falling too fast. The attched chart is what I am worried about. TL changing S/R roles
Yep, I drew it about the same way and have the same concern. As is typical of the trading today, the 1H is full of long-wicked candles, and yet no reversal is in sight.

On the slightly more positive note, my 4H candle just closed as a spinning top (FXCM UK MT4).

The only profound question that needs to be asked now is - would Thomas Magnum cover his shorts or stay in the trade? Enquiring minds want to know.
  • #20,322
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:34pm Mar 29, 2010 2:34pm
Quoting George C
Yep, I drew it about the same way and have the same concern. As is typical of the trading today, the 1H is full of long-wicked candles, and yet no reversal is in sight.

On the slightly more positive note, my 4H candle just closed as a spinning top (FXCM UK MT4).

The only profound question that needs to be asked now is - would Thomas Magnum cover his shorts or stay in the trade? Enquiring minds want to know.
Haha. Are you currently in right now? If so, what is your entry and stops. I am still bearish on this pair.
  • #20,323
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:38pm Mar 29, 2010 2:38pm
Wow the bears are having trouble with this pair, someone distract the bulls, please.
I operate with clear definite rules, if I break them I lose BIG!
  • #20,324
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:41pm Mar 29, 2010 2:41pm
Quoting Saxon
Haha. Are you currently in right now? If so, what is your entry and stops. I am still bearish on this pair.
I am still holding on to my short at 0.9119 from last week, with a stop at .9200. It's a heck of a drawdown to be in, but it's well within the 5% I allowed for it, so, while I'm a bit gutted that this doesn't seem to have gone as planned, I want to execute the trade as planned, rather than bailing halfway through.

I just wish I knew with any certainty what caused today's move - as someone remarked before, if it had been the fundamentals, they would've been factored into the price action by now.
  • #20,325
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:42pm Mar 29, 2010 2:42pm
Well I got in slightly better than you at .91277, I figured it had stalled and was coming back down, my bad. Ah well, live and learn if I get margin called.
I operate with clear definite rules, if I break them I lose BIG!
  • #20,326
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:47pm Mar 29, 2010 2:47pm
Quoting George C
Yep, I drew it about the same way and have the same concern. As is typical of the trading today, the 1H is full of long-wicked candles, and yet no reversal is in sight.

On the slightly more positive note, my 4H candle just closed as a spinning top (FXCM UK MT4).

The only profound question that needs to be asked now is - would Thomas Magnum cover his shorts or stay in the trade? Enquiring minds want to know.
This is what will change it for me, see attached Daily. If we break the uppder daily TL, then I will change my opinion on Bulls/Bears. Right now we are at a tight interaction with 50 and 100MA. I want a swing down to 200MA which will confirm a long-term direction (Bear) for me. If you look back at the green circle we had a similar interaction with 100MA, but then continued the swing.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily.jpg Size: 89 KB
  • #20,327
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:59pm Mar 29, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting Saxon
This is what will change it for me, see attached Daily. If we break the uppder daily TL, then I will change my opinion on Bulls/Bears. Right now we are at a tight interaction with 50 and 100MA. I want a swing down to 200MA which will confirm a long-term direction (Bear) for me. If you look back at the green circle we had a similar interaction with 100MA, but then continued the swing.
I agree, the daily TF is the definitive test of trend longevity, with 0.926 possibly functioning as the ultimate stop loss for bears, as, at that level, it will have not only broke the daily TF, but also conclusively surpassed the previous high of .92509

Saxon, a question - as I understand it, you're a very experienced trader; how often do you see such sudden - and seemingly inexplicable - moves happen? I think a lot of people were bracing for a retraction of some sort after the pair failed to close below 0.9000 last week (heck, I don't think anyone really expected that it would close below that level on the first try); but the sheer magnitude and violence of the bull surge we're looking at probably caught quite a few bears off guard.
  • #20,328
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:02pm Mar 29, 2010 3:02pm
is it true that i heard somebody told me that if news on USD are +ve... all pairs will go up... and if the news are -ve, the pairs will go down.... can anybody comment on this?
  • #20,329
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:03pm Mar 29, 2010 3:03pm
Another potential scenerio...

D
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #20,330
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:09pm Mar 29, 2010 3:09pm
Quoting rossobonks
Another potential scenerio...

D
That's what we're hoping and praying for right now
  • #20,331
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:24pm Mar 29, 2010 3:24pm
Makes you guys feel any better I think it'll go down and shorted at 9165 hah!
  • #20,332
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:29pm Mar 29, 2010 3:29pm
why dont you just go long.....then feel better.
Annoying Precision
  • #20,333
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:31pm Mar 29, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting erikte279
why dont you just go long.....then feel better.
I'm more convinced by the descending TL, then the rising TL I also feel Aud is overly expensive and I Don't like the EU Greece fiasco.
  • #20,334
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:35pm Mar 29, 2010 4:35pm
Quoting erikte279
why dont you just go long.....then feel better.
too late, im short all usd and jpy pairs
  • #20,335
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:41pm Mar 29, 2010 4:41pm
As a bear, here's how I'm feeling about today:


http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/9...iralackbar.jpg


Alright, back to being serious now..
  • #20,336
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:42pm Mar 29, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting Zeroh
and I Don't like the EU Greece fiasco.
Are you shorting the EUR/USD also?

I think a good idea to help hedge is long USD/YEN; I feel if the job numbers are as great as they say they're going to be this week, then USD/YEN rallies... the USD may rally against the AUD and EUR also, but it may go down b/c there could be more Risk going into the market; thereby causing a rally into non-USD currencies (excluding the YEN) as there will be no need for safe-haven refuge.

Fundamentally, I like being long USD/YEN longer-term anyway, so I don't mind if it goes down after the jobs report as I'll be looking to slowly add to a long position.
  • #20,337
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:43pm Mar 29, 2010 4:43pm
I have entered shorts at 9177 where weekly highs meet Monthly highs. As long as it remains under 9200 there is still a 95% chance that price will see 8981 this week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.GIF Size: 14 KB
  • #20,338
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:47pm Mar 29, 2010 4:47pm
IMO, I've been waiting since 3am est to short A/U. H4 is almost to the point of giving me the go ahead. Could be any moment from now or within a couple of hours. I'm twitching with anticipation!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,339
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:49pm Mar 29, 2010 4:49pm
Quoting amyc
I have entered shorts at 9177 where weekly highs meet Monthly highs. As long as it remains under 9200 there is still a 95% chance that price will see 8981 this week.
Sounds like a plan! Good to see you are still bearish.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,340
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:54pm Mar 29, 2010 4:54pm
Quoting thadakman
Are you shorting the EUR/USD also?

I think a good idea to help hedge is long USD/YEN; I feel if the job numbers are as great as they say they're going to be this week, then USD/YEN rallies... the USD may rally against the AUD and EUR also, but it may go down b/c there could be more Risk going into the market; thereby causing a rally into non-USD currencies (excluding the YEN) as there will be no need for safe-haven refuge.

Fundamentally, I like being long USD/YEN longer-term anyway, so I don't mind if it goes down after the jobs report as I'll...
No i dont play that pair, Greece I think there could be more problems and that cause risk aversion for the aud.
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