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  • #20,281
  • Mar 29, 2010 8:21am Mar 29, 2010 8:21am
Quoting George C
Perhaps - as I said, I'm staying in this until the bitter end.

I'm curious, though - how often do you see sudden surges/plummets like this that don't have a clear explanation, either in the fundamentals or the technicals?
Not very often. Every couple of months maybe.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,282
  • Mar 29, 2010 8:23am Mar 29, 2010 8:23am
Quoting MarcVUM
Not very often. Every couple of months maybe.
Right - so in other words, I shouldn't feel too awful about not seeing this one coming? I take losses rather personally - after all, it's a zero-sum game, so whenever I'm losing, that means someone is winning, and vice versa
  • #20,283
  • Mar 29, 2010 8:24am Mar 29, 2010 8:24am
Quoting George C
Right - so in other words, I shouldn't feel too awful about not seeing this one coming? I take losses rather personally - after all, it's a zero-sum game, so whenever I'm losing, that means someone is winning, and vice versa
I don't think you lost. Fib Retracement shows 50% at 9084. I still think we see it.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,284
  • Mar 29, 2010 8:43am Mar 29, 2010 8:43am
Price pinged off the Daily 50MA late on Friday found its buyers and has not looked back since!

Price currently up against decending trendline and WR1. Also above all medium to longer term MAs and with commodity markets looking somewhat bid at the start of this week its hard to even think about shorts on this pair now.

Lets have a cracking week.

D
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  • #20,285
  • Mar 29, 2010 8:47am Mar 29, 2010 8:47am
what did i miss, looks like a break of R, and no retrace
hmm...

im not making much sense of her behavior right now, i'll stay out till tomorrow
will have an early night, all the best guys
  • #20,286
  • Mar 29, 2010 8:50am Mar 29, 2010 8:50am
Quoting OvT
what did i miss, looks like a break of R, and no retrace
hmm...
She broke R, tested and failed. Developing bear candle on H1. We shall see!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,287
  • Mar 29, 2010 8:59am Mar 29, 2010 8:59am
Spinning top on H1?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,288
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:02am Mar 29, 2010 9:02am
Quoting MarcVUM
Spinning top on H1?
More like a shooting star - and I'm somewhat hopeful because it was created as a result of two consecutive bearish 15M candles. The 4H candle closed with a bullish body, but a wick as long as the body itself.

I guess this is the moment we've been waiting for - if the next hourly is bearish, it may signal at least a retracement, and possibly a reversal.

We're not out of the woods yet, but this may save the lives of a few reluctant bears about to swallow the cyanide - there's hope yet!
  • #20,289
  • Edited 9:19am Mar 29, 2010 9:10am | Edited 9:19am
My gut tells me that if it had the power to run 160pips, it could have gone right through the top of the channel and made their intentions known.

I ask myself why not?

Could it be that SM, powered it up to that point and stopped, having some cover their shorts and others jump in this "bull" run, trapping both?

What about this move makes a short holder feel comfortable?
What about this move makes the long holder feel comfortable?

If longs are comfy and it drops, greed will kick in and they will hold for it to go back up.

If shorts panic, they will cover the shorts.

How to kill both?
Bring price down.

If not, at least the worst is behind us, not many pips north to breakout.

Good luck,
BR
  • #20,290
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:12am Mar 29, 2010 9:12am
Quoting George C
More like a shooting star - and I'm somewhat hopeful because it was created as a result of two consecutive bearish 15M candles. The 4H candle closed with a bullish body, but a wick as long as the body itself.

I guess this is the moment we've been waiting for - if the next hourly is bearish, it may signal at least a retracement, and possibly a reversal.

We're not out of the woods yet, but this may save the lives of a few reluctant bears about to swallow the cyanide - there's hope yet!
I think the bears will be alright! My H4 candle doesn't close for another 50 minutes but is shaping up quite nicely. I really am not concerned of whether or not it is going to drop. It will. My timing is just off a little.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,291
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:13am Mar 29, 2010 9:13am
Quoting Big1red9
My gut tells me that if it had the power to run 160pips, it could have gone right through the top of the channel and made there intentions it known.

I ask myself why not?

Could it be that SM, powered it up to that point and stopped, having some cover their shorts and others jump in this "bull" run, trapping both?

What about this move makes a short holder feel comfortable?
What about this move makes the long holder feel comfortable?

If longs are comfy and it drops, greed will kick in and they will hold for it to go back up.

If...
Interesting theory - but who are the SMs you're referring to? What does the acronym stand for?
  • #20,292
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:15am Mar 29, 2010 9:15am
Quoting MarcVUM
I think the bears will be alright! My H4 candle doesn't close for another 50 minutes but is shaping up quite nicely. I really am not concerned of whether or not it is going to drop. It will. My timing is just off a little.
Three consecutive 15M bear candles now, which is the longest consecutive run the bears have had this afternoon.

Hard to type with my fingers crossed...
  • #20,293
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:18am Mar 29, 2010 9:18am
Sorry....

SM = smart money. They are the largest financial institutions (central banks, large commercial banks and hedge funds). They have the power to take a currency to the pip where they want it and hold it by either buying or selling incredible qualities.

Quoting George C
Interesting theory - but who are the SMs you're referring to? What does the acronym stand for?
  • #20,294
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:24am Mar 29, 2010 9:24am
Quoting Big1red9
Sorry....

SM = smart money. They are the largest financial institutions (central banks, large commercial banks and hedge funds). They have the power to take a currency to the pip where they want it and hold it by either buying or selling incredible qualities.
So, basically, where I want to be in 20 years?
  • #20,295
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:31am Mar 29, 2010 9:31am
lol... you could. Can you imagine the war rooms, with endless buying or selling to win a move? (shudder at the thought).

For myself, I have this website with islands for sale. I think I will trade coconuts and bananas.


Quoting George C
So, basically, where I want to be in 20 years?
  • #20,296
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:34am Mar 29, 2010 9:34am
You know, there's one thing about this SM theory that I find particularly interesting - if you look at the wicks of the last 7 hourly candles, they're all much longer than you'd expect them to be in an uptrend like this.

It's almost as if the price is being dragged, kicking and screaming, to a level where the market really doesn't think it ought to be.

Interesting, huh?
  • #20,297
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:39am Mar 29, 2010 9:39am
Quoting George C
You know, there's one thing about this SM theory that I find particularly interesting - if you look at the wicks of the last 7 hourly candles, they're all much longer than you'd expect them to be in an uptrend like this.

It's almost as if the price is being dragged, kicking and screaming, to a level where the market really doesn't think it ought to be.

Interesting, huh?
Like I said earlier... I call them long wickie dickie's...they are typical of a reversal in my experience.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,298
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:43am Mar 29, 2010 9:43am
Quoting MarcVUM
Like I said earlier... I call them long wickie dickie's...they are typical of a reversal in my experience.
Long wickie tricky dickies is more like it, given their performance today!
  • #20,299
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:45am Mar 29, 2010 9:45am
Quoting George C
Long wickie tricky dickies is more like it, given their performance today!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,300
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:50am Mar 29, 2010 9:50am
Hi all
Just back from my work
Still Hold
2 positions 9175 , 9235
21 traders viewing now