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  • #20,261
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:02am Mar 29, 2010 9:02am
Quoting MarcVUM
Well, she might touch the weekly R1 (9157)again. My TL is at 9144 right now and my 200ma on the H1 is at 9147. Like I said, too much too fast. Just waiting for that special candle to tell me down.
would this be it? what you're looking for
candle on M15
  • #20,262
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:03am Mar 29, 2010 9:03am
Quoting OvT
rofl, now that you mentioned it, H1 is filled with all these
OVT, IMO when she breaks the 35ma on the 15min...we may have confirmation. However, I'll short here and short again if we reach 9150 again.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,263
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:04am Mar 29, 2010 9:04am
gold dipped
  • #20,264
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:06am Mar 29, 2010 9:06am
Quoting stwk81
That is a very bearish view...I'm quite new to all these terminologies, can I ask what DD is and MM rule?
DD is short for Drawdown - how far against you you're willing to let the trade go before either calling it a loser or seeing it go in your favour. Basically, it's the distance between your entry and your stop loss.

Money Management is what it says - among other things, it's the notion that your maximum drawdown (value at stoploss) should never exceed 5% of your total equity. For example, if you have a $10,000 account, then, at stop loss, you should be looking at a maximum of $500 loss.
  • #20,265
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:10am Mar 29, 2010 9:10am
Quoting George C
DD is short for Drawdown - how far against you you're willing to let the trade go before either calling it a loser or seeing it go in your favour. Basically, it's the distance between your entry and your stop loss.

Money Management is what it says - among other things, it's the notion that your maximum drawdown (value at stoploss) should never exceed 5% of your total equity. For example, if you have a $10,000 account, then, at stop loss, you should be looking at a maximum of $500 loss.

Cool, thanks for the thorough explanation.!
  • #20,266
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:12am Mar 29, 2010 9:12am
George, have you ever considered selling more at a higher price to raise your cost basis so that you can exit a trade at B/E? This way you never have to lose on a trade again.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,267
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:15am Mar 29, 2010 9:15am
Quoting MarcVUM
George, have you ever considered selling more at a higher price to raise your cost basis so that you can exit a trade at B/E? This way you never have to lose on a trade again.
Marc,

I have, but it's something I almost never do because I have an intense dislike of overcommitting equity to a specific instrument. I'd much rather go and use that cash to trade something different and hope that, worst comes to worst, the winner and the loser offset each other
  • #20,268
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:19am Mar 29, 2010 9:19am
Quoting George C
Marc,

I have, but it's something I almost never do because I have an intense dislike of overcommitting equity to a specific instrument. I'd much rather go and use that cash to trade something different and hope that, worst comes to worst, the winner and the loser offset each other
Understandable. I have executed each of those strategies in the past. Took me too many years to learn the tricks!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,269
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:36am Mar 29, 2010 9:36am
Damn it, seems like we're back to testing 0.915x
  • #20,270
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:38am Mar 29, 2010 9:38am
Quoting George C
Damn it, seems like we're back to testing 0.915x
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,271
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:50am Mar 29, 2010 9:50am
uh oh. we may have a problem here!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,272
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:54am Mar 29, 2010 9:54am
Quoting MarcVUM
uh oh. we may have a problem here!

what do you see happening Marc?
  • #20,273
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:56am Mar 29, 2010 9:56am
Quoting MarcVUM
uh oh. we may have a problem here!
You said it.

So, in retrospect, what really caused the surge? Order book clearing? Suggested interest rate hike? There didn't seem to be any technical indication of the surge.

I will likely stay in this until the bitter end, if only because I've manually closed an other profitable AUD/USD trade before; however, I agree that with the TL seemingly breached, the odds of a reversal are looking slimmer by the minute.

My last stand argument is that such a small breach of the TL would not always indicate a trend reversal, and I will likely stay in the trade based on that. However, in all likelihood, this seems to be a bull market now.
  • #20,274
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:57am Mar 29, 2010 9:57am
Quoting stwk81
what do you see happening Marc?
She is really trying to break through the weekly R1 at 9157. I am absolutely amazed at a 160 pip run on this pair in one daily candle!!! I just don't believe it. Can she really break through? My H4 has her getting ready to come down and all of these MA's, TL's, R's can't hold her back! WOW

OK. Pinbar? Reversal? I don't know!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,275
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:59am Mar 29, 2010 9:59am
Quoting MarcVUM
She is really trying to break through the weekly R1 at 9157. I am absolutely amazed at a 160 pip run on this pair in one daily candle!!! I just don't believe it. Can she really break through? My H4 has her getting ready to come down and all of these MA's, TL's, R's can't hold her back! WOW
Look at the weekly chart - it moved in one day almost as much as it did in the previous week
  • #20,276
  • Mar 29, 2010 10:00am Mar 29, 2010 10:00am
Quoting MarcVUM
She is really trying to break through the weekly R1 at 9157. I am absolutely amazed at a 160 pip run on this pair in one daily candle!!! I just don't believe it. Can she really break through? My H4 has her getting ready to come down and all of these MA's, TL's, R's can't hold her back! WOW
Although, take a look at the 15M candle that just closed - sometimes, it seems like this whole day has been an exercise in proving the fallacy of technical analysis!
  • #20,277
  • Mar 29, 2010 10:01am Mar 29, 2010 10:01am
Quoting MarcVUM
She is really trying to break through the weekly R1 at 9157. I am absolutely amazed at a 160 pip run on this pair in one daily candle!!! I just don't believe it. Can she really break through? My H4 has her getting ready to come down and all of these MA's, TL's, R's can't hold her back! WOW
Quite honestly this surge is BS...I think market-makers are big part of this move...but who knows.......

if this move is with all consideration to interest rate hike, etc etc, it would/should be factored in by this stage...I will probably hold my short position towards the end of the week...
  • #20,278
  • Mar 29, 2010 10:02am Mar 29, 2010 10:02am
Quoting George C
Although, take a look at the 15M candle that just closed - sometimes, it seems like this whole day has been an exercise in proving the fallacy of technical analysis!
Craziness!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,279
  • Mar 29, 2010 10:10am Mar 29, 2010 10:10am
Quoting George C
Although, take a look at the 15M candle that just closed - sometimes, it seems like this whole day has been an exercise in proving the fallacy of technical analysis!
You know... it broke the TL on the H1 and 15min but in all honesty it has not been confirmed by the H4. I'm not trying to make a case to make myself feel better but it is something to consider. My H4 doesn't close until 1pm est.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,280
  • Mar 29, 2010 10:17am Mar 29, 2010 10:17am
Quoting MarcVUM
You know... it broke the TL on the H1 and 15min but in all honesty it has not been confirmed by the H4. I'm not trying to make a case to make myself feel better but it is something to consider. My H4 doesn't close until 1pm est.
Perhaps - as I said, I'm staying in this until the bitter end.

I'm curious, though - how often do you see sudden surges/plummets like this that don't have a clear explanation, either in the fundamentals or the technicals?
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