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  • #20,201
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:25am Mar 29, 2010 4:25am
Quoting OvT
yep, might just give in to emotion and kept letting loss adding on top of loss
As a good example of that, after manually closing an AUD/USD short last week (which was pretty dumb in retrospect - but anyway), I somehow decided that going long on EUR/USD was a good idea - you know, right before it resumed plummeting to 1.3250...
  • #20,202
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:28am Mar 29, 2010 4:28am
Quoting Clouds
i was trying to play under the EMA, but we're at much better resistance

Attachment
Cloud,

Today's surge can have one important positive consequence for the bears - if it the downward trend resumes itself, the bounceback should strengthen the 4H downward trendline and confirm it further through a third touch of the line.

Yes, I know, it sounds like I'm grasping at straws here, but being a bear has been pretty tough today
  • #20,203
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:32am Mar 29, 2010 4:32am
Quoting George C
Cloud,

Today's surge can have one important positive consequence for the bears - if it the downward trend resumes itself, the bounceback should strengthen the 4H downward trendline and confirm it further through a third touch of the line.

Yes, I know, it sounds like I'm grasping at straws here, but being a bear has been pretty tough today
and what about usd/cad it's touched it 7 times. anyway, im shorting aud/usd till .84, there's no signs of bulls yet
  • #20,204
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:34am Mar 29, 2010 4:34am
Quoting George C
As a good example of that, after manually closing an AUD/USD short last week (which was pretty dumb in retrospect - but anyway), I somehow decided that going long on EUR/USD was a good idea - you know, right before it resumed plummeting to 1.3250...
oh man, i feel that
hope you didn't get burnt too badly
going opposite direction might double the effect lol
'i shouldn't have done <...>' x2

i see the bull puffing, but if the bull is red, it might resume~
  • #20,205
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:34am Mar 29, 2010 4:34am
Clouds,

Thanks for pointing USD/CAD out; I don't like jumping between trades, but I'll keep an eye out on it, just to see if it will head north as the trend pattern suggests.
  • #20,206
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:39am Mar 29, 2010 4:39am
Quoting George C
Clouds,

Thanks for pointing USD/CAD out; I don't like jumping between trades, but I'll keep an eye out on it, just to see if it will head north as the trend pattern suggests.
just something to watch, even if just in aud trade, it's one of 2 pairs that trades similar to aud (other being nzd)
  • #20,207
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:41am Mar 29, 2010 4:41am
Quoting George C
As a good example of that, after manually closing an AUD/USD short last week (which was pretty dumb in retrospect - but anyway), I somehow decided that going long on EUR/USD was a good idea - you know, right before it resumed plummeting to 1.3250...
Ouch man, that's no fun.
  • #20,208
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:41am Mar 29, 2010 4:41am
Quoting Saxon
What are you using it for?
to know support and resistance values
  • #20,209
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:53am Mar 29, 2010 4:53am
Quoting john123x
to know support and resistance values
What Reuters system are you using? I am not as familiar with the IFR feed they give but you can see if there is a tutorial with Reuters.
http://www.ifrmarkets.com/protected/ForEx.pdf
go through 2369. You can just call them up and they will probably be able to give you the layout.
Sorry I couldn't help you more
  • #20,210
  • Mar 29, 2010 4:58am Mar 29, 2010 4:58am
Quoting Clouds
just something to watch, even if just in aud trade, it's one of 2 pairs that trades similar to aud (other being nzd)

Thanks for the tips all who responded.

BTW Clouds where would u place the SL?

I took the chance and short at .9127 and SL at .9150
due to the shooting star candle on the hourly.

best wishes guys
  • #20,211
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:00am Mar 29, 2010 5:00am
Quoting chinaman
Thanks for the tips all who responded.

BTW Clouds where would u place the SL?

I took the chance and short at .9127 and SL at .9150
due to the shooting star candle on the hourly.

best wishes guys
no comment.
see u in profit tomorrow
  • #20,212
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:01am Mar 29, 2010 5:01am
Quoting chinaman
Thanks for the tips all who responded.

BTW Clouds where would u place the SL?

I took the chance and short at .9127 and SL at .9150
due to the shooting star candle on the hourly.

best wishes guys

Yep, definitely a good short around .9130...
  • #20,213
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:01am Mar 29, 2010 5:01am
Another hourly just closed, bordering between a doji and a shooting star. In the aftermath of the shooting star of the previously hourly, it is a somewhat welcome sign further confirming a stall in the momentum of the Asian surge.

However, I am rather disappointed that a more sustained bearish move did not materialize in the wake of last hour's candlestick. On the positive side, the shape of the 4H candle is looking very promising.

Any ideas on what the US session will bring?
  • #20,214
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:04am Mar 29, 2010 5:04am
Quoting Clouds
and what about usd/cad it's touched it 7 times. anyway, im shorting aud/usd till .84, there's no signs of bulls yet
0.84 ?? wow long term target.. when do you expect it to hit there clouds?
  • #20,215
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:05am Mar 29, 2010 5:05am
Quoting IdentifyTren
0.84 ?? wow long term target.. when do you expect it to hit there clouds?
To be honest, I've been strongly thinking of shorting it to that level as well - it was the shape of the Daily and the Weekly charts that drew my attention to this pair in the first place.

My estimate on 0.85 is around one month, give or take a week.
  • #20,216
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:10am Mar 29, 2010 5:10am
saxon, marc?

40ma on H4 is pretty spot on! if that is what it is, it should bounce off and down
if it holds that is
  • #20,217
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:11am Mar 29, 2010 5:11am
Quoting George C
To be honest, I've been strongly thinking of shorting it to that level as well - it was the shape of the Daily and the Weekly charts that drew my attention to this pair in the first place.

My estimate on 0.85 is around one month, give or take a week.
Wow George that will be a cool
600 pips in profit.
enough to pay for my holiday
inThailand....

cheers
  • #20,218
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:15am Mar 29, 2010 5:15am
Quoting chinaman
Wow George that will be a cool
600 pips in profit.
enough to pay for my holiday
inThailand....

cheers
Yup; unfortunately, the trick to trading the Dailies is to condition yourself to survive reversals such as today's. I originally started shorting it at 0.9119 last week and enjoyed a really smooth ride to 0.89xx; so you can imagine disappointed I was by today's surge, given that all I expected was a minor correction/bounce off 0.9000 followed by a resumption of the trend.
  • #20,219
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:19am Mar 29, 2010 5:19am
Quoting OvT
saxon, marc?

40ma on H4 is pretty spot on! if that is what it is, it should bounce off and down
if it holds that is
It should although I wouldn't be surprised to see another run up to the upper TL due to PA on the 15min. I kind of want to see a bear candle on the H4 but we can't always get what we want!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,220
  • Mar 29, 2010 5:25am Mar 29, 2010 5:25am
Hmmm, you need to have seriously good MM to be shorting here. Just have a look at the hourly chart this past session and a half.

Even the 15m TF still looks bullish. Divergence is more powerful than any S+R in moves like this.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Volumes indicate a pullback is due, but buying is strong.
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