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  • #20,141
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:18am Mar 29, 2010 2:18am
Quoting Saxon
It plowed through my limit but I set my stop really tight on 91365 which could be another small S/R hurdle for AUD. It is a really small position so i'm not too worried about it. I am still running through my charts, news analysis, global eq analysis and what not. I don't have a picture yet for the day. Proabably wont until London. Just glancing though, AUD is in an extreme and should take a slight dip, (M15, M30, H1). I am still LT bearish on this pair.

Hello everyone. Although she might take a slight dip soon don't be surprised if she makes her way to 915x!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,142
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:20am Mar 29, 2010 2:20am
Quoting MarcVUM
Hello everyone. Although she might take a slight dip soon don't be surprised if she makes her way to 915x!
or make a new low. night
  • #20,143
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:24am Mar 29, 2010 2:24am
Quoting Clouds
or make a new low. night
Sorry Clouds, It is highly likely that the bear run is over for a few days. Amyc might be right about hitting 9250 again. This is just what my charts are telling me...no expectation/crystal ball reading here.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,144
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:29am Mar 29, 2010 2:29am
Quoting MarcVUM
Sorry Clouds, It is highly likely that the bear run is over for a few days. Amyc might be right about hitting 9250 again. This is just what my charts are telling me...no expectation/crystal ball reading here.
highly unlikely
  • #20,145
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:31am Mar 29, 2010 2:31am
Quoting MarcVUM
Sorry Clouds, It is highly likely that the bear run is over for a few days. Amyc might be right about hitting 9250 again. This is just what my charts are telling me...no expectation/crystal ball reading here.
I think fundamentally one of the reasons that it went up as much as it did was the Gold upside move, which was sparked due to the Korean Warship tension. Once that settles, Gold will find its way back down and so will the AUD, just my 2Cents.....
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #20,146
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:38am Mar 29, 2010 2:38am
Quoting tradoholic
I think fundamentally one of the reasons that it went up as much as it did was the Gold upside move, which was sparked due to the Korean Warship tension. Once that settles, Gold will find its way back down and so will the AUD, just my 2Cents.....
Another reason, apart from the RBA and the Int rates, is the strenghtening of the EU, and GBP, which have helped bring weakness in the USD and hence pushing the AU$ up. These two currencies are well due for a fall again, and once they do, AUD will fall as well.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #20,147
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:45am Mar 29, 2010 2:45am
Quoting MarcVUM
Sorry Clouds, It is highly likely that the bear run is over for a few days. Amyc might be right about hitting 9250 again. This is just what my charts are telling me...no expectation/crystal ball reading here.
hey marc, hope you had a good weekend
here we go for another week and this one looks like fun

i have trend approaching 40ma 9129 H4 and 200ma 9150 H1
expecting a bounce there?
  • #20,148
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:47am Mar 29, 2010 2:47am
Found out why AUD going into outerspace. Got this off my Reuters-

"The euro stabilized after its recent pounding, aided by short-covering, while the dollar lost ground to the Australian and New Zealand dollars in choppy trade driven largely by order-book cleaning ahead of the quarter-end"
  • #20,149
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:50am Mar 29, 2010 2:50am
Quoting Saxon
Found out why AUD going into outerspace. Got this off my Reuters-

"The euro stabilized after its recent pounding, aided by short-covering, while the dollar lost ground to the Australian and New Zealand dollars in choppy trade driven largely by order-book cleaning ahead of the quarter-end"
yep, there go the damn market makers again!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,150
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:51am Mar 29, 2010 2:51am
Quoting Saxon
Found out why AUD going into outerspace. Got this off my Reuters-

"The euro stabilized after its recent pounding, aided by short-covering, while the dollar lost ground to the Australian and New Zealand dollars in choppy trade driven largely by order-book cleaning ahead of the quarter-end"
Finally - I just couldn't otherwise explain how a normally expected bounce off .9000 suddenly turned into a major surge.

Now, then, where does this leave us? And, more importantly, is this something that will soon run out of steam, or will it break the downward trend of the past week?
  • #20,151
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:53am Mar 29, 2010 2:53am
Quoting OvT
hey marc, hope you had a good weekend
here we go for another week and this one looks like fun

i have trend approaching 40ma 9129 H4 and 200ma 9150 H1
expecting a bounce there?
There is a strong MA at 9130... the upper TL at 9149 and the weekly R1 at 9157. To top it off the Upper BB on the H4 is coming down hard. She'll take a break up there! The ride up won't be over though as far as I'm concerned. Indicators on the H4 are too strong for a bull run. IMO
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,152
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:58am Mar 29, 2010 2:58am
.......sorry...c..o..u..l.ddnt resist....hahahaha
Quoting MarcVUM
Indicators on the H4 are too strong for a bull run. IMO
Annoying Precision
  • #20,153
  • Mar 29, 2010 2:59am Mar 29, 2010 2:59am
Quoting MarcVUM
yep, there go the damn market makers again!
Haha, ya, not a fan of those guys. We are at one on of my S/R lines right now ~91365 so we'll see which side of the fence they want to play on.
  • #20,154
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:01am Mar 29, 2010 3:01am
Well, the 4H candle just closed with no immediate reversal indications. I agree that we're now at a major resistance level - if it shoots through that, there doesn't seem to be anything to stop it before 0.9200.

EDIT: Though I suppose if you go by the downward trendline, there could be a resistance at approximately 0.9160 as the trend attempts to reassert itself.
  • #20,155
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:02am Mar 29, 2010 3:02am
Quoting MarcVUM
Sorry Clouds, It is highly likely that the bear run is over for a few days. Amyc might be right about hitting 9250 again. This is just what my charts are telling me...no expectation/crystal ball reading here.
I think we still see 8982 before any sustained movement up, but i will be waiting till end of ny session to try shorting it. If we get to 8982 I see that as a very good buy zone. eu should be on its way back to 1.38 and S&P 1200 so au will find it hard to be bearish under those circumstances.
  • #20,156
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:03am Mar 29, 2010 3:03am
Quoting Saxon
Haha, ya, not a fan of those guys. We are at one on of my S/R lines right now ~91365 so we'll see which side of the fence they want to play on.
my R line is at 91350! like you said, we'll see up or down
it has moved 100+ pips toady
  • #20,157
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:05am Mar 29, 2010 3:05am
Quoting Saxon
Found out why AUD going into outerspace. Got this off my Reuters-

"The euro stabilized after its recent pounding, aided by short-covering, while the dollar lost ground to the Australian and New Zealand dollars in choppy trade driven largely by order-book cleaning ahead of the quarter-end"
So I wonder how that effect things, does that basically mean that once order-book cleaning is over the trend resumes?

Order-book cleaning???
  • #20,158
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:09am Mar 29, 2010 3:09am
Quoting amyc
I think we still see 8982 before any sustained movement up, but i will be waiting till end of ny session to try shorting it. If we get to 8982 I see that as a very good buy zone. eu should be on its way back to 1.38 and S&P 1200 so au will find it hard to be bearish under those circumstances.
Interesting! I'll keep looking for some signals that end this little run up. Thanks.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #20,159
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:10am Mar 29, 2010 3:10am
Quoting MarcVUM
There is a strong MA at 9130... the upper TL at 9149 and the weekly R1 at 9157. To top it off the Upper BB on the H4 is coming down hard. She'll take a break up there! The ride up won't be over though as far as I'm concerned. Indicators on the H4 are too strong for a bull run. IMO

I am showing 9140,9179,9198 as s/r levels from last week, 9152 is from 3/17 and a resistance from Jan 2010. However this is already started to loose momemtum and getting to the 9200 level is unlikely unless a major push hits from the MM. Looks like it wil fall later in the session
  • #20,160
  • Mar 29, 2010 3:13am Mar 29, 2010 3:13am
Another possible resistance will be the touch of the downward trendline - draw it on the 4H charts and see for yourselves. If nothing else, I'd expect the price to stall there as the market decides whether the bearish trend will resume.
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