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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #821
  • Edited 5:44pm Mar 28, 2010 5:19pm | Edited 5:44pm
I believe that Head & Shoulders pattern is a signal for more upside to the USD/JPY. A lot more upside.
Quoting shahab8b
I received couple of PMs asking about U/J short trade (from 92.80) and if it's still good to enter ,

as I mentioned earlier I took profit at 92.40 and moved my SL to B/E (current price 92.50)

I'm unsure of the movement right now, but I consider ab=cd a possibility ,
I drew the probable moves in the chart, hope it helps
  • #822
  • Mar 28, 2010 5:19pm Mar 28, 2010 5:19pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
you may want to set your TP for E/U at weekly pivot at 1.3414 and for U/Chf at 1.0650 your entry i guess.
E/U moves are OK, we will see 1.3414 before 1.3580
Yes. Think I will do so for the E/U.
For the CHF that would be my entry level again..right.
That one is running to close the gap nicely at the moment
Still speculating on some action by the SNB... So I might let that one run.

Did you limit order on G/U get filled now?
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #823
  • Mar 28, 2010 5:21pm Mar 28, 2010 5:21pm
if anyone here, took U/Chf long and didnt use SL at 1.0590 as I recommended ,close at weekly pivot at 1.0650
  • #824
  • Mar 28, 2010 5:31pm Mar 28, 2010 5:31pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Tuner, are you in G/U short from 1.4950?
I need to change SL for that one + adding another one higher
yes I am in that one...
We also got the weekly pivot here (1.4935) right?
better get out for a few pips now and look for a higer entry you mean?
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #825
  • Mar 28, 2010 5:38pm Mar 28, 2010 5:38pm
E/U short update;
the fact that we are above weekly pivot is not that bearish, as amyc mentioned uncertainty is high ,
so TP at 1.3414 weekly pivot if you have one position, if 2, set SL>B/E for 2nd after we hit 1.3414
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  • #826
  • Mar 28, 2010 5:39pm Mar 28, 2010 5:39pm
G'day guys,

just wondering if we have 4 day week this week considering its a Good Friday on NFP and Easter Monday (Public Holiday)?

If so, then this and next week will be 4 day week and in that case I wonder how market will react to NFP?

can anybody shed some light on this?

cheers
  • #827
  • Mar 28, 2010 6:05pm Mar 28, 2010 6:05pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting puks
G'day guys,

just wondering if we have 4 day week this week considering its a Good Friday on NFP and Easter Monday (Public Holiday)?

If so, then this and next week will be 4 day week and in that case I wonder how market will react to NFP?

can anybody shed some light on this?

cheers
Hey there puks..
Hope you are doing . I also thought about that.
Markets closed on Friday when NFP are released. but not on monday.
(as no public holiday in the US?!)

found that article.. the last 2 paragraphs talk about the holidays in particular.
Didn't get any messages about the trading hours from my broker. the usually send this kind of information all the time

http://www.actionforex.com/fundament...0100328109823/

Tuner
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #828
  • Mar 28, 2010 6:13pm Mar 28, 2010 6:13pm
Quoting Tuner
yes I am in that one...
We also got the weekly pivot here (1.4935) right?
better get out for a few pips now and look for a higer entry you mean?
no I said I need to make a change in SL and add another entry,

G/U Short from 1.4950 is fine , I added another sell limit at 1.4980 and
moved SL from 1.5050 to 1.5080

are you still in? it's +36 now
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  • #829
  • Mar 28, 2010 6:23pm Mar 28, 2010 6:23pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
no I said I need to make a change in SL and add another entry,

G/U Short from 1.4950 is fine , I added another sell limit at 1.4980 and
moved SL from 1.5050 to 1.5080

are you still in? it's +36 now
Yes I am still in. Looks not that bad..
SL would be some pips above weekly R1 then.

U/CHF did almost come out of the reds now.. so I will have to decide what to do soon... Think I'll go the safe way and close it.

What a start of the week
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #830
  • Mar 28, 2010 6:24pm Mar 28, 2010 6:24pm
guys, I'm closing these longs U/Chf at weekly Pivot, I didnt post this trade because I was wrong two times in a row on this pair.
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  • #831
  • Mar 28, 2010 6:26pm Mar 28, 2010 6:26pm
Quoting Patience
Hey Shahab - can't access the SSI at the moment (server down for weekend maintenance) but here's some funnymental bedtime reading. Have a good weekend


hey patience.... thanks for posting the funnymental bedtime reading ......

and while on the subject of funny mental, something about it strikes me mentally funny......


part of an expert advisor of mine creates a horizontal layout similar to the fx snapshot on page 14 of your pdf.....

but my figures seem to always differ..... as example...... can anyone figure how they come up with a -1.01 % move on the eurusd..... that would be roughly a 135 pip move....

they must be using something other than the closing values of the week.....

can anyone see what i'm missing......

and thanks again patience for posting it, please continue when possible.....h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #832
  • Mar 28, 2010 6:27pm Mar 28, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting puks
G'day guys,

just wondering if we have 4 day week this week considering its a Good Friday on NFP and Easter Monday (Public Holiday)?

If so, then this and next week will be 4 day week and in that case I wonder how market will react to NFP?

can anybody shed some light on this?

cheers
Hi mate, how is it going?

did you close all your longs at 1.3500? or still in?
  • #833
  • Mar 28, 2010 6:29pm Mar 28, 2010 6:29pm
Quoting Tuner
Yes I am still in. Looks not that bad..
SL would be some pips above weekly R1 then.

U/CHF did almost come out of the reds now.. so I will have to decide what to do soon... Think I'll go the safe way and close it.

What a start of the week
you know I was wrong twice, now I'm telling you to close and it will jump up 200 pips, but that price is below weekly Pivot, I play it safe
  • #834
  • Mar 28, 2010 6:40pm Mar 28, 2010 6:40pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi mate, how is it going?

did you close all your longs at 1.3500? or still in?
Hey mate,

Hope all is well.

I closed my EU long at 1.3410 on Friday but suffered a massive loss from AUD longs taken at .9090 (S).

So basically back to square 1.

Looking for some good trade opportunities this week from you on this thread :-)

Cheers
  • #835
  • Mar 28, 2010 6:45pm Mar 28, 2010 6:45pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
you know I was wrong twice, now I'm telling you to close and it will jump up 200 pips, but that price is below weekly Pivot, I play it safe
In that business nobody can be 100% right.
You are doing a great job with your analysis and trade-ideas!

Taking a lot of "your" trades but always considering for myself .. if it fits to my account-size and the risk I am able or willing to take,...)

For the U/CHF I will watch PA at that area.. if we get there now (before I fall asleep)
Nothing wrong with "play it safe"

btw.. what are your thoughts on the AUD? no such huge gap there.
Just read a pretty bullish view on that one -->" 0.93 by the end of the week"

------------
2046 GMT [Dow Jones] Expect a quiet first couple days of week for AUD with a potential bailout deal for Greece now in rear-view mirror, says Joseph Capurso, currency strategist with Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "Wednesday is the big day to worry about when you have retail sales numbers and building approvals. That will help the market price in its expectations for a rate hike on next Tuesday," says Capurso. Market currently putting chance of April hike at 50%. "I suspect the local data will be pretty good, so we could nudge to US$0.9300 by the end of the week," adds Capurso. AUD/USD currently at 0.9049, down slightly from 0.9054 late Friday. ([email protected])
-------------
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #836
  • Mar 28, 2010 7:12pm Mar 28, 2010 7:12pm
Quoting Tuner
In that business nobody can be 100% right.
You are doing a great job with your analysis and trade-ideas!

Taking a lot of "your" trades but always considering for myself .. if it fits to my account-size and the risk I am able or willing to take,...)

For the U/CHF I will watch PA at that area.. if we get there now (before I fall asleep)
Nothing wrong with "play it safe"

btw.. what are your thoughts on the AUD? no such huge gap there.
Just read a pretty bullish view on that one -->" 0.93 by the end of the week"


-------------
thanks for your appreciation. A/U the same as before, did you look at my Weekly COT? just I said short at .9055-60-90 you can move sell limit to weekly pivot .9078 to get a better entry
  • #837
  • Mar 28, 2010 7:27pm Mar 28, 2010 7:27pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
thanks for your appreciation. A/U the same as before, did you look at my Weekly COT? just I said short at .9055-60-90 you can move sell limit to weekly pivot .9078 to get a better entry
You're welcome!
Had a closer look at the COT you posted earlier. Looks extreme.
So sticking to the plan and: short..

I will go get some sleep now.

See you all later/tomorrow!
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #838
  • Mar 28, 2010 7:33pm Mar 28, 2010 7:33pm
Quoting Tuner
You're welcome!
Had a closer look at the COT you posted earlier. Looks extreme.
So sticking to the plan and: short..

I will go get some sleep now.

See you all later/tomorrow!
if you have just one short G/U close this one set another sell limit at 1.4980
  • #839
  • Mar 28, 2010 7:56pm Mar 28, 2010 7:56pm
U/J short from 92.80 update:

we moved SL to B/E, TP at 91.77

new order: Buy limit U/J at 91.77 and 91.20 SL=90.50

will post the chart later
  • #840
  • Mar 28, 2010 8:05pm Mar 28, 2010 8:05pm
Quoting puks
Hey mate,

Hope all is well.

I closed my EU long at 1.3410 on Friday but suffered a massive loss from AUD longs taken at .9090 (S).

So basically back to square 1.

Looking for some good trade opportunities this week from you on this thread :-)

Cheers
good, you made that E/U long. hope we can get in and get out in all trades before NFP this week. you know that I don't like trading on NFP day.
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