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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #801
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:07pm Mar 28, 2010 4:07pm
the best start ever -50 * 2 position U/Chf= -100
  • #802
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:09pm Mar 28, 2010 4:09pm
adding short E/U at 1.3475
  • #803
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:12pm Mar 28, 2010 4:12pm
guys let me know if your sell limit order for G/U at 1.4950 got filled, mine didnt.

I'm short E/U from 1.340-60-75
will post the chart soon
  • #804
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:23pm Mar 28, 2010 4:23pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
guys let me know if your sell limit order for G/U at 1.4950 got filled, mine didnt.

I'm short E/U from 1.340-60-75
will post the chart soon
Hey there Shahab..

Pending on G/U didn't get filled (as the open price today was 1.4929 for me)
Pending AUD.. same thing. opened some pips below my entry-level.

U/CHF opened 1 pip above my SL and so still open.

So keep the bearish view for the EUR? (bullish USD)

Regards,
Tuner
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #805
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:25pm Mar 28, 2010 4:25pm
E/U short 1.3440-60-75 SL=1.3580
I dont like the weekly Pivot is 1,3414 and the price has already opened above that. but in any case I dont see going higher without coming down to 1.3414 first.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1a.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #806
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:26pm Mar 28, 2010 4:26pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab..

Pending on G/U didn't get filled (as the open price today was 1.4929 for me)
Pending AUD.. same thing. opened some pips below my entry-level.

U/CHF opened 1 pip above my SL and so still open.

So keep the bearish view for the EUR? (bullish USD)

Regards,
Tuner
Hi tuner,
what was your SL for U/Chf?
  • #807
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:31pm Mar 28, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting shahab8b
the best start ever -50 * 2 position U/Chf= -100
You can't win them all - have to give a little back here and there There have been a couple of occasions when the gap has taken 2-3 days to fill. I would have expected it to have come down a bit more by now. It might be a funny week. Month end, quarter end, NFP and Easter. Might have some funky price action. Toss the coin
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #808
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:32pm Mar 28, 2010 4:32pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Hi tuner,
what was your SL for U/Chf?
SL @ 1.0580...
My open price was 1.05817....
so pretty close..
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #809
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:34pm Mar 28, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab..

Pending on G/U didn't get filled (as the open price today was 1.4929 for me)
Pending AUD.. same thing. opened some pips below my entry-level.

U/CHF opened 1 pip above my SL and so still open.

So keep the bearish view for the EUR? (bullish USD)

Regards,
Tuner
yea I sell E/U as the plan
but SL at 1.3580 I'll be out if it gets there,
  • #810
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:37pm Mar 28, 2010 4:37pm
okay.
Quoting shahab8b
Weekly COT ; G/U

large institute added to their short G/U from -63,978 to -71,624 net short contracts, COT index is bearish extreme, an upward correction is on the card but not without another leg down.

I take short for now, will try to get long when the right moment comes

1st chart is last week analysis
2nd this week
  • #811
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:38pm Mar 28, 2010 4:38pm
Quoting Patience
You can't win them all - have to give a little back here and there There have been a couple of occasions when the gap has taken 2-3 days to fill. I would have expected it to have come down a bit more by now. It might be a funny week. Month end, quarter end, NFP and Easter. Might have some funky price action. Toss the coin
You are right, this week had a crazy start, lets see what it will bring us till the end.
  • #812
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:42pm Mar 28, 2010 4:42pm
Quoting amyc
For the short term maybe but I would be careful I see a move back to 1.38 area, maybe higher.
Hi amyc, do you know that you are among few traders here when your view is different ,it really makes me think twice.
you are saying that because of weekly pivot? or some other reason?
  • #813
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:50pm Mar 28, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi amyc, do you know that you are among few traders here when your view is different ,it really makes me think twice.
you are saying that because of weekly pivot? or some other reason?
Weekly pivot and other reasons, last week we hit what I call March lows, because we bounced off them and opened the new week above the weekly pp there should be a move to the April highs which is currently sitting around 1.3800. From there I'd expect to start a new rotation down towards 1.26. This week should move at least as high as 1.3566.
  • #814
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:51pm Mar 28, 2010 4:51pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
yea I sell E/U as the plan
but SL at 1.3580 I'll be out if it gets there,
Hope we won't get up there. pretty wide stop though..
That gap doesn't seem to be closed too quickly now..
but we should wait and see.

Good luck to you!
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #815
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:55pm Mar 28, 2010 4:55pm
Quoting amyc
Weekly pivot and other reasons, last week we hit what I call March lows, because we bounced off them and opened the new week above the weekly pp there should be a move to the April highs which is currently sitting around 1.3800. From there I'd expect to start a new rotation down towards 1.26. This week should move at least as high as 1.3566.

did you just change the high from 1.3586 to 1.3566 ?
  • #816
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:57pm Mar 28, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting shahab8b
did you just change the high from 1.3586 to 1.3566 ?
yes.
  • #817
  • Mar 28, 2010 5:00pm Mar 28, 2010 5:00pm
Quoting Tuner
Hope we won't get up there. pretty wide stop though..
That gap doesn't seem to be closed too quickly now..
but we should wait and see.

Good luck to you!
you may want to set your TP for E/U at weekly pivot at 1.3414 and for U/Chf at 1.0650 your entry i guess.
E/U moves are OK, we will see 1.3414 before 1.3580
  • #818
  • Mar 28, 2010 5:05pm Mar 28, 2010 5:05pm
Quoting Tuner
Hope we won't get up there. pretty wide stop though..
That gap doesn't seem to be closed too quickly now..
but we should wait and see.

Good luck to you!
Tuner, are you in G/U short from 1.4950?
I need to change SL for that one + adding another one higher
  • #819
  • Mar 28, 2010 5:14pm Mar 28, 2010 5:14pm
The leaders of the euro zone Reached to an agreement in Brussels last night to rescue Athens including assistance from the IMF and bilateral loans from the members of the European zone. According to the agreement, Greece will get loans coordinated partners in the European Union as well as assistance from the International Monetary Fund "in the event of serious difficulties. " Herman van Rumbai - European Council President has hoped that the agreement sends a signal to creditors to confirm that the euro zone will never give up on Greece and that in case of any danger; the other Member States will take similar steps. He also added that the assistance will be through the mechanism of the EU and the International Monetary Fund.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, who had opposed the use of the Fund, noted he was satisfied with the agreement said he would maintain the responsibilities that must be borne by European governments. Aiding Greece would be conditional on estimates conducted by the European Central Bank and the European Commission, To make sure that the European Union controls the terms of the bailout plan, The decision would collectively to the euro zone to lend Greece.

The decision has decreased the U.S. dollar today after the optimism of the of European leaders decision to a joint agreement to bailout Greece. The euro rebounded on Friday from its lowest level in ten months against the dollar after the announcement of the agreement and Rose 0.3% against the dollar. On the other hand the dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, has rebounded slightly from the highest level in ten months at 82.240 points, after rising sharply in the past few days. The U.S. economy is still showing positive signals and that is supporting the dollar these days and not just the jittery sentiment. The final GDP reading for the past quarter is expected unrevised today at 5.9%. While Michigan confidence which is expected with a slight upside revision is still down from February which might slightly affect the market.
  • #820
  • Mar 28, 2010 5:18pm Mar 28, 2010 5:18pm
E/U short update:

1.3440-60-75 SL=1.3580,
1STP=1.3414 2nd=TBD, after 1st TP, move SL>B/E
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