Simple & Consistent Fibbing Method

Great Outlook frankkn! I confirm this possible setup for completion at 97.15 so. We need to seek a break of resistance at 93.75 to 94. It will be very nice to see the setups we get on lower time frames should we get a ride up.

Hi frankkn, I would do a great injustice if I did not say, all the glory belongs to God. Since without His guidance, I may have chosen to do otherwise.

I'm excited to learn of your vantage point. Student of something else and FOREX. You have a great opportunity there!
If you can get the method down, (which I see you are grasping so far), through what has been shared on the forum and in the chatroom you, as well as take some time to Demo, I think you will do pretty good.

The chatroom is a great place to clarify trade setups, entries and so forth with other traders as well.

Ok, going to finish up those videos for later. Thanks again!

Hey Simone great work!
I have been trading fibbs last 5 years, not the way you do, but it is interesting to look at a different way.
Amazing what you find at FF some times!
Might catch you at the chatroom this week...

Thanks baron193!

I have listed what I see as 3 options for AUDJPY PA to be likely to follow. Being the weekend is about over you never know how the open will be. I would expect a turn south at open or shortly afterwards as seen in the symetrical path this pair has been following. I see this as a possible entry point, a safer entry would be once PA breaks Friday's low. Happy trading. Watch price action at this juncture and enter at own risk and above all use stop losses when you do trade.
I am a relatively new trader and would appreciate if any more seasoned traders can point out any errors in my logic. Thanks for looking.

here is eur/usd [4h chart]

i used vertical lines to mark off last week

then i fibbed high to low, and shaded in bull and bear targets with a gray box

next i highlighted 50% of the high to last low

price has crossed [gapped past] the 50%, so do we now wait for price to get back and look for maybe a 1h pin bar or engulfing something like that

i would like to experiment around with how this works on a larger time frame

the second picture...are these areas (the circled areas) even the right place to look for a 50% breach? its interesting that price gapped right there

Hi Everyone,

I have posted 3 videos this weekend to add clarity to the PDF on this method. You may view them on post #1 of this thread.

We are currently selling off the 50% of Last Week's Swing and presently looking bearish.

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/4463/guh1.jpg


Zooming in on the 15M
Should we break below 1.4890 we should watch for support at 1.4840 and 1.4760.

http://img195.imageshack.us/img195/8205/gu15m.jpg

What a great job Simoneg thanks for all your efforts, I hope one day I'll be able to give to others what you are giving us... it's a pleasure to follow your steps

question for you simoneg sometimes you say not to take a trade until it breaches 50% AND pulls back before entering. and in the video it says once we break and close below 50% thats ok for an entry.

which is right?

Well where to begin....about three weeks back before I came across this thread I was going through a really rough patch when it came to trading i.e. I was doing okay when it came to identifying the trend but was choosing the worst possible places to make my entry and as it so happens used to sell at the bottom and bought at the top, not that I didn't have countless number of EAs, MAs and indis to back my trades but there was something missing more often than not.....what got me attracted to this thread was that it had a chatroom where to be very honest I went thinking I'd get my hands on some valuable "tips" and could recover some of my losses.....how wrong was I? for the first week things went flying by left right and center but I began to enjoy aswilled questions to us newbies for the next bear/bull target level then later on about fractals this just made me head back to the drawing board and that was obviously to the PDF which seemed to have all the answers. mostly around 3 am est Simoneg would pop into the chatroom to give her invaluable insight into the movement of GU....which always made me go back to test on my offline charts first then only to comeback to try it on the current market. During the second week I started making friends with whom I started sharing my ideas and viz a viz they told me about there's, slowly but surely started understanding the movements, knowing a bit about how to move fibs intraday....daily....getting help from others and doing as much as I can to let others know whatever I have learnt.....on came the third week when I had built up the confidence to go back to live trading and try to win back some of the amount which I had lost and to my amazement I started making good recovery, I wouldn't lie that all trades went into the positive only but most of the negatives were the one in which greed came in the way and I made a good trade turn into a bad one anticipating on my own that it's bound to go south/north bound....anyways atleast I have started learning where and how to book profits/losses.....there is a long long way to go and have to learn so much but whatever I have learnt so far I owe it to Simoneg ofcourse.....then aswilled, earth2pip, meovn63, arnyboy, djhex (thanks for starting the chat) and all those who I don't seem to remember the names now.....I know it was a boring story but I had to give the credit where it was due that is the least I can do as aswilled would say start printing money keep the pips coming ....cheers

Last week was a good week for trading off of the dollar's strength. At the beginning of last week, the gu showed courage and pushed up to 5111. Then the us said, "nu uhhh. No so fast" and reversed the gbp at this level, dropping it all the way to 4797. Stopping shy of the all important support of 4780. This caused the pound the reach the weekly and monthly T1 levels and bounce. Now, what we need to see if price is satisfied with them targets, or are the bears still hungry for more?

Yearly Outlook:
The gu id still respecting the pennant it is in, from the last major swing, this year. It is below its yearly pivot. But it is holding at its 38.2 short level which is acting as support. And this support line converges with our bottom tl of the pennant. A break below 4854 may push the gu to test yearly support at 4178.
But why gu haven't respected the macd divergence to the upside?

http://img196.imageshack.us/img196/1115/cmcapture3b.jpg

Monthly Outlook:
The pound has continued its selling from last month in this month. But it was stopped in it tracks by the bulls at 4797; reaching monthly T1 level of 4839 and bouncing (first chart, blue box). As this month winds down, we are looking for signs of continued selling for the month of April. One important sell off level is 5041 (second chart, green box). This would be the 19.1 s/r level if we move our monthly fib from last month's low, to this month's. And as you can see converges right on April Fool's (green box) with the tl that ha been keeping the pound capped all month. 5041 is also where our daily chart 10 dma would meet price.

http://img231.imageshack.us/img231/8159/cmcapture2u.jpg
http://img44.imageshack.us/img44/5230/cmcapture1.jpg

Weekly Outlook:
Last week brought us a high of 5111 and a low of 4797. This 314 pip move has reversed to the weekly pivot of 4954 (where price is 3am est. as I type). Price has poked through the pivot by 17 pips and returned under the pivot. That 17 pip spike hits the tl drawn on the higher lows at the beginning of the month. This tl is converging with the weekly 61.8 level @ 4991. And for those that has been watching this market all month, we know that 499x level real good. So this area is very important to watch. It has been very magnetic. And the 4hr chart is showing signs of macd divergence (black lines) to the upside.

http://img686.imageshack.us/img686/5230/cmcapture1.jpg

Daily Outlook:
The pound has broken Friday's high of 4963 and 80.9 resistance @ 4970. Price is approaching Thursday's high of 5011 and bull target levels of 5084 T1, and 5129 T2. Price will hit the 10 dma before any of the bull targets are reached. At the T1 level is a tl and the high of last week @ 5111. And as you know how the rules go, once targets are met, price returns to previous levels to test. Price has broken out of both trendlines that make up the channel is has been in for the past two weeks. There is some macd divergence to the upside (black lines).

(image coming. Can only upload 5 images)

My immediate outlook on the pound is bullish until targets are met. Lets print money peoples... :nerd:

Thank you Zaka!

Hi djhex, remember that we wont always get a breach (break). Sometimes we will get a bounce there. Watching Price action at this level is always key. If I am uncertain based on the PA or anything else I will wait for entries.

Hi Everyone,

Just want to point out that we are at the end of the month, and a low and high have already been established and March's bear targets were hit last. As a result, we may have very little activity before next month, especially if there is a need to go lower. Trade safely and go for smaller profits until the next month!

What are they and why are they so important?

Fractals are price targets that institutional traders say, "thats our immediate target people to sell/buy.". Then they proceed to invest their money in the market to cause price to do exactly what they planned to do. On the other end we have the opposing players that say, "hmmm, they are trying to go for 1.xxxx. We can't allow price to go pass that level where we have our stops and/or options."

As price reaches the targeted level, both players are trying desperately to control the direction pa will take. But price, 9 out of ten times, is going where these traders say it will go. And it will do what they want it to do.

Fractals are tiny highs and lows within THE high and low. And depending on what time frame you are looking at, they can be 5 - 500+ pips apart. They are the points on the waves that the market always make.

You heard the saying, "What goes up must come down." This applies to pa. And what goes down must come up. Is the vise versa that can only apply to pa. So as the market makes its waves, it will make distinct highs and lows (fractals) along the way.

A high/low (fractal) is not a high or low unless we have a candle who's high or low is higher or lower than the two candles before it and the two candles after it.

What does that mean? Well, lets say it's midnight on a 1h chart, and the market is trending up and the midnight candle trades higher than the 10 and 11 o'clock candles. Then the opposing players step in and stop price (profit taking, options, stops) at 1.1111. Then they proceed to move price in the opposite direction (stop or slow it down) for the next two sessions. (Now this move can be small or big.) So the 1 o'clock and 2 o'clock candles will open and close lower than the high of the midnight candle. Meaning those two candles never made it to 1.1111.

So this is how this fractal was made:
10pm: O:1.1000 H:1.1020 L:1.9995 C:1.1019.
11pm: O:1.1020 H:1.1075 L:1.1017 C:1.1063.
Midnight: O:1.1063 H:1.1111 L:1.1063 C:1.1100.
1am: O:1.1096 H:1.1096 L:1.1085 C:1.1090.
2am: O:1.1090 H:1.1100 L:1.1078 C: 1.1085.

As you can see it takes five candles (sessions) to make a high or low, aka, fractal. You will also notice that none of the two candle sessions to the right or left of the midnight candle, in this uptrend, haven't traded higher than that candle. :nerd:

so the fractals are useful only in identifying past significant highs/lows for our 50% breach fib, but because they take so much time to form (5 sessions) there's a delay on the impact on our immediate trading, right?

Good Morning Traders,

GU may very well have completed its ABCD wave as shown on the chart below and could very well come crashing down to 1.4930 or lower.
Also we have not been able to break the high of last week and are currently reacting bearishly to that level.

http://img31.imageshack.us/img31/1025/guagain.jpg

Our first breach level is at 1.5090. A break below will present opportunities to short.

http://img715.imageshack.us/img715/8819/gu15minnow.jpg

We have strong break of 1.5090, giving opportunities to sell. We are now watching price action on this level. Should selling continue our next 50% breach level is at 1.5072.