Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

Hey Shahab - can't access the SSI at the moment (server down for weekend maintenance) but here's some funnymental bedtime reading. Have a good weekend

12:15 AM, Mar 28. Extracted from http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/C...f-Traders.aspx

USD COT Analysis:Large spec traders continue to favor the long side of the DI. They own over 72% of the long side of this market and are over 6 to 1 long. Small traders are a 2 to 1 long but are small participants in this market.

EUR COT Analysis:The OI increased sharply, up over 16% during the period. The last two days of this period were sell off days for the euro. The feature of this week was large spec selling from the commercial. There are 68 large specs who are not short 47.7% of this market. Small specs did add to their positions, but are only modestly short.

GBP COT Analysis:The theme remains the same in the pound, the large specs, probably funds, are bearish and short over 56% of the OI. The 47 large spec shorts added about 7000 contracts and are now a very unbalanced 7.3 to 1 short. Small specs a 2 to 1 short reduced positions during the period.

JPY COT Analysis:There was not a lot of movement during the period in the yen. Large specs remain a modest long and moved the net position closer to even by adding shorts. Small specs and the commercials are short the yen. The small specs increased their net short while the commercial decreased his. The yen sold off after the cut off date for this report.

CHF COT Analysis:The big activity for the period was the large spec decreasing their short positions, while the commercial flipped from a long to a short in this market. Small specs are big players in this market, long almost 39% of the open and short almost 29%. Large and small specs are on different sides of the market, a little unusual.

CAD COT Analysis:The reduction in the open interest reflects the commercial off setting of open positions at the expiration of the March contract. The C$ is the most popular long among the currencies. The large spec is over a 5 to 1 long and the little spec is a 3 to 1 long. There are 43 large specs long 55.4% of the OI. Late week market action went against the longs.

NZD COT Analysis:There are now 14 large specs who are long 77% of this very small market. The small spec is getting more involved, now a 2 to 1 long. The increase in the OI was caused by commercial selling and large spec buying.

AUD COT Analysis:The large specs continue adding to the long side of this market, and are now over a 9 to 1 long. With interest rate differentials favoring the A$, this may be an explanation for some of the long. Small specs like wise favor the A$ by a 2 to 1 margin.


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Weekly COT:CADUSD (inverse U/Cad)
large institute added to their long Cad contracts from 69,640 to 73.027 net long contratcs (short U/Cad)

COT index is bullish extreme (100) ,(bearish extreme for U/Cad)

Sum up: I expect more upside move in U/Cad

Weekly COT: JPYUSD (inverse U/J)

large institute reduced their long JPY contract (short U/J) , switching between net long and short couple of time is sign of trend reversal , U/J has been in long term -down trend, may be it's time for a change

Head & Shoulder is a possible pattern (inverse H&Sh at U/J)

Weekly COT: E/U
large institute added to their short E/U from -46,341 to -74,917 net short contracts.

it seems the short side is getting crowded again, but as long as the trend is clearly down I dont fight the trend. when the set up is right we will try to take longs (to ride the corrective waves) but not now.

Weekly COT ; G/U

large institute added to their short G/U from -63,978 to -71,624 net short contracts, COT index is bearish extreme, an upward correction is on the card but not without another leg down.

I take short for now, will try to get long when the right moment comes

1st chart is last week analysis
2nd this week

GU: still the same count

I will update later on

I received couple of PMs asking about U/J short trade (from 92.80) and if it's still good to enter ,

as I mentioned earlier I took profit at 92.40 and moved my SL to B/E (current price 92.50)

I'm unsure of the movement right now, but I consider ab=cd a possibility ,
I drew the probable moves in the chart, hope it helps

Hello Geppyg,
hope all is well, I should draw the level you mentioned in the charts at my charts next time not to forget (S at 1.3256) , I dont know why I missed your point, that was a lesson.

Regards
Shahab

Just logged onto Oanda - you know their rates start early. E/U is at 1.3479/89 (usual 10 pip spread at this time - normally 0.9 in normal market). U/CHF is 1.0608/18 (10 pip spread). G/U is at 1.4952/62.

Wasn't expecting that. Gap play

how come, . I need to be waiting till 5 pm NY,

what's the price of U/J U/Cad and A/U?

Oanda is open all weekend if you want to trade. Rates don't move all the time but they usually start moving around now. By the time your broker opens the gap may have been filled. I'm just wondering if I should play the gap yet or wait and see what's happening. U/CHF is now 105.99/106.09. Commodity currencies haven't moved much though. U/J 92.35/45. N/U 0.7047/57. A/U 0.9047/57.

10 pips, doesn't worth it, for 30 pips you need to consider 33% more risk, but that means something the gap is not small

I checked interactive data, the high of the day on E/U is 1.3525 for G/U is 1.4970 , that's crazy

I've got market close on Friday for E/U at 1.3408. It's now 1.3484 but probably higher because of the big spread. Nearly 80 pips above Friday's close. Whoops, it's just jumped to 1.3498! Probably a good thing most brokers aren't open because I think a few traders would have already been stopped out.

I dont like it my Sl at U/Chf should be hit by now
1.0577 , E/U is 1.3500 !!!

I better go for a walk instead of staring at these price while I cant do anything. U/J 92

Yep, U/CHF now 1.0577/87. U/J now 92.07/17. You might be all right though. I've seen this lots of times and by the time the other brokers have opened, rates have usually retreated. Yeah, go for a walk, catch ya later.

if you can get E/U at 1.3500 sell it,

Now that I've pulled up a chart the high was actually 1.3526 about an hour ago.

Hey there Shahab ..
Hope you had a nice weekend.
I also seen those big gaps.
(Using some live-charts on the net as my broker doesn't show them)

http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/advanced-charts/

Just wonder how brokers handle pending orders... (as for example EUR @ 1.3444..) when the price openes above that now?

we will see.. and also if that gap is going to be closed again.

For the short term maybe but I would be careful I see a move back to 1.38 area, maybe higher.