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  • #11,041
  • Mar 27, 2010 9:50pm Mar 27, 2010 9:50pm
Quoting No1Optimist
A big and heartfelt thanks to those who answered my query.

I have carefully considered the advice offered, and obviously I had lost my way.....temporarily at least.

Re the assertion that I am only a useless lurker, please refer to my own "index" attached. It covers the thread, every page, up to page 121, and will be continued to the very end. There have been "Pearls of Wisdom" on nearly every page.

95% of the quotes are from the Master, the others are in distinctive colours, and I am sure the authrs will recognize them.

I am no lurker.

Thanks...
Roger, my apologies for the "lurker" label. I guess my paranoia with them overcame me.

However, the fact that you are doing this and recording this in such a manner leads me to believe, from the question you asked, that you are not UNDERSTANDING. Cutting and pasting, recording, reading and writing in such an organised manner is good for posterity but does not seem to be doing much for your learning.

While I applaud your efforts, it seems to me that you need to go back over all this and make sure you UNDERSTAND what you have put together.

Without UNDERSTANDING and getting the "light bulb" moment, you will be unable to progress.

Again, think about your question and this method of trading - PRICE ACTION at SUPPORT and RESISTANCE (PASR). If there is a disconnect then you really MUST go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,042
  • Mar 27, 2010 10:32pm Mar 27, 2010 10:32pm
Crystal ball gazings

My crystal ball gazings are nothing more than, well, crystal ball gazings!

There is no technical or funny mental analysis behind them, just a quick 30 second glance at the charts, nothing more.

I often find I “see” more when I FIRST look at the charts.

There are many readers and students on here who are so bogged down with technical analysis that they forget why they are doing it in the first place.

If doing technical analysis provides a release from your every day life and you get satisfaction and enjoyment from such (like me), then don’t lose sight of WHY we do it.

Don’t let it over – power you to the point that you enjoy doing it MORE than making money. The goal of what we do here is to MAKE MONEY.

From some of the posts on the thread, it is obvious to me that some are so deep into the forest with their technical analysis that they can’t see the sky let alone the wood for the trees. And a few seem to have entered a maze deep down in the middle of the forest and can’t find their way out!

Like everything else in life, there is a fine line between “knowing” and “doing”. Don’t get caught in the “knowing” trap.

We have said it many times and readers must be bored with reading it but, stand back from your analysis, ZOOM OUT, look at everything from above.

SEE THE BIG PICTURE

Take what you “SEE” in the “BIG PICTURE” and apply it to what you “SEE” happening right now. Don’t get sucked in to micro movements.

Damn, I got one foot on the soap box again.

Back to crystal ball gazing. This is MY release, my BIG PICTURE images.

HOWEVER, it is NOT my trading.

Trading crystal ball visions will empty your trading account – AND FAST.

ONLY trade what PASR shows YOU.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,043
  • Mar 27, 2010 10:41pm Mar 27, 2010 10:41pm
This is why STRAT is king of the hill, simple genius.

How to make millions on forex ebook- 199.99

A free reality check from the man himself- Priceless

Thank You

Quoting strat
Crystal ball gazings

My crystal ball gazings are nothing more than, well, crystal ball gazings!

There is no technical or funny mental analysis behind them, just a quick 30 second glance at the charts, nothing more.

I often find I “see” more when I FIRST look at the charts.

There are many readers and students on here who are so bogged down with technical analysis that they forget why they are doing it in the first place.

[font=Arial]If...
Annoying Precision
  • #11,044
  • Mar 28, 2010 3:28am Mar 28, 2010 3:28am
Hi Strat,

With due repects to your noble thought of helping traders to be successful , i feel you are not doing justice to the people who were not following your thread from its inception. I started following it 3 weeks back,trying to go through all the posts and you keep saying 'whole thread is a path of learning' - it is.. but why do you want to create confusion in people by trying to intepret things from your answers and trying to build an overall picture. Really really i respect your knowledge ,efforts and principles , but having a one pager which gives you a big picture will make a huge difference to new people trying to follow your thread. One example of how to pick a trade and one example of a wrong trade ..if you keep these in first page,that would make a huge difference to follow the rest of it. Having said that ,even if you bash me here (which i know you will !!) i will keep reading all pages and continue following this thread till its dead.

Cheers
  • #11,045
  • Mar 28, 2010 3:43am Mar 28, 2010 3:43am
Quoting disciplined
Hi Strat,

With due repects to your noble thought of helping traders to be successful , i feel you are not doing justice to the people who were not following your thread from its inception. I started following it 3 weeks back,trying to go through all the posts...

But that would be hand feeding you right?

There are many posts of good PASR trades in the path of learning, there are also many posts of bad trades and incorrect analysis by students to show you the right and wrongs of this method. Help is always available here but you must help yourself first and that is putting in the work to read and understand the whole thread.
  • #11,046
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:06am Mar 28, 2010 4:06am
True, i understand the posts answer the questions and people are available to asnwer it if required . But is the intention of thread to make 'learning difficult' or to help traders ..my suggestion would get more followers to the great start and his thread ..
  • #11,047
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:12am Mar 28, 2010 4:12am
Quoting disciplined
Hi Strat,

With due repects to your noble thought of helping traders to be successful , i feel you are not doing justice to the people who were not following your thread from its inception. I started following it 3 weeks back,trying to go through all the posts...
With due repects to your noble thought of helping traders to be successful , i feel you are not doing justice to the people who were not following your thread from its inception.

Who gave you permission to be Judge and jury?

I started following it 3 weeks back,trying to go through all the posts and you keep saying 'whole thread is a path of learning' - it is.. but why do you want to create confusion in people by trying to interpret things from your answers and trying to build an overall picture.

Because it's the way human beings “learn”!

Really really i respect your knowledge ,efforts and principles , but having a one pager which gives you a big picture will make a huge difference to new people trying to follow your thread. One example of how to pick a trade and one example of a wrong trade ..if you keep these in first page,that would make a huge difference to follow the rest of it.

It is impossible, IMPOSSIBLE, to teach ANY method of trading in one page BUT it IS possible to teach how NOT to trade in one page.

If you have been following it for 3 weeks then you must be reading and NOT UNDERSTANDING.

You are looking for shortcuts to trading – THERE ARE NONE.

Trading is a serious business which MUST be treated as a serious business for which you MUST go through an apprenticeship.

Hell, I consider myself still an apprentice in this business because the minute you get BIG HEADED and think you are the Master, the Queen will give you one flash of her grail and then it’s off with your head!

Having said that ,even if you bash me here (which i know you will !!) i will keep reading all pages and continue following this thread till its dead.

If you know I will “bash you” then you must know that what you have said is a pile of shit so why say it?

If your impatience stems from thinking forex is a “Get Rich Quick” scheme, you will do well to read all the posts by AminAS – then go to the end of the thread to read where he lost patience trading daily charts, dropped down to M15 then lost patience there because he wasn’t “getting rich quick” fast enough and dropped down to M5. Then he dropped out of forex completely as he blew his trading accounts!

He is now a SCAMMER and sells SCAM forex systems to impatient, gullible people like you!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,048
  • Mar 28, 2010 4:29am Mar 28, 2010 4:29am
well, its an open thread, i only expressed my view. i only suggested to give a bit more details in first post for 'easier' following of the whole thread ..i know there is no short cut and im not looking for it. if you think what i said is not acceptable, pls don't do it. I think you need change your perspective to generalise on all newbie's view to 'get rich quick'- not all are same..
  • #11,049
  • Edited 5:03am Mar 28, 2010 4:57am | Edited 5:03am
Quoting disciplined
Hi Strat,

With due repects to your noble thought of helping traders to be successful , i feel you are not doing justice to the people who were not following your thread from its inception. I started following it 3 weeks back,trying to go through all the posts and you keep saying 'whole thread is a path of learning' - it is.. but why do you want to create confusion in people by trying to intepret things from your answers and trying to build an overall picture. Really really i respect your knowledge ,efforts and principles , but having a one pager...
I think you know where you are coming from. But I learned from my father about math, which I am still applying it today in a lot of things. He said if you A's your homework by looking for similarity between your homework problems and examples, what happens when the teacher twists the concept a little bit on the tests. That is like us newbies looking for example from "good trades" and match it with live trading, well what happens when the market throws us a curve ball and we don't understand why a "good trade" is "good" in the first place. A couple page back no1optimist "did" a "bad trade" and was corrected. An observation is more valuable to me than an example of a good trade, although an example of a good trade brings the point home but never to be used as model for future trades.

Having said that, I am making my first attempt here to make a good observation of AUDUSD. I have tried to write something since Friday but cannot seem to executiong my thoughts clearly. Please comment and if failed, I will back to my notes to find out why I am wrong. I guess better wrong here than...out there.

I attached daily and weekly chart. Daily charts with my trendlines and SR level, including ppz at .902.

Pro for down move:
1. A shorterm downtrend is developing, LH and LL's
2. Intermediate uptrend is broken
3. 3/25/2010 showed a shooting star

Pro for up move.
1. Big boss 20 ema still supporting PA.
2. Daily candle closed above my support at .90167 and above Fib .5 from .8800 to .9250.

So what does that tells me. First, let me tackle the PA at .902 ppz on 3/26/2010. As more sell orders and stop loss happened at near/at this level driving the price down, there were even more buyers to absorb this liquidity and drove the price north to close above .90167 and aforementioned 50% Fib. So does this temporarily invalidated the shooting star on 3/25/2010 and bring resumption of a rally? I think what happened on 3/16/2010 just said that down move is halted, but if up move was to resumed, we still have intermediate downtrend and short term downtrend lines to break, in addition to resistance at .9315. If PA at these levels gives signal then we are to re-test all time high at .9850.

Psychologically and fundamentally speaking, how does one allow oneself to SELL this pair on the long term? Rollover fees seem unprofitable to SELL this pair? Going back in time, 7-01-2008 to 3-01-2009 a huge drop occured. Because I just gotten into Forex, I don't know what fundamentally caused the market to do that if the rollover fees were the same now. Well I can guess that Australian economics was not so hot then? Rollover fees were not like current? Or do rollover fees play any psychological and fundamental roll in choosing to SELL or BUY a pair. I guess this are more just thoughts than anything else.

Ok, just like if I was taking a trade. I did my homework, put in my SL and TP and press SUBMIT.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au-daily.gif Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au-weekly.gif Size: 32 KB
  • #11,050
  • Mar 28, 2010 6:31am Mar 28, 2010 6:31am
Quoting jayph
I think you know where you are coming from. But I learned from my father about math, which I am still applying it today in a lot of things. He said if you A's your homework by looking for similarity between your homework problems and examples, what happens when the teacher twists the concept a little bit on the tests. That is like us newbies looking for example from "good trades" and match it with live trading, well what happens when the market throws us a curve ball and we don't understand why a "good trade" is "good" in the first place....
Good for you........ I know that it is quite difficult to post a chart analysis on the board and take the risk of adverse comments. So credit to you for doing that.

I am sure others will have detailed comments to make but I've looked at your charts and also compared them with mine and there are differences but one must always trade what one's own charts are saying..........

Having got that out of the way, have a further look at the Boss. On your chart it seems trapped in a triangle at the moment and I wouldn't enter a trade on the Worker until there has been a break out from that Boss trap.

As for the SS on 25th March, well it isn't at S or R, but it is at your TL. The question would be whether you can count that TL as SR.........personally I wouldn't. S & R is usually stronger than a TL and, as shown in your analysis there is just too much confusion in this pair for me to risk a trade.

I would wait for a clear PA signal on the Boss and then watch for a more detailed set-up on the Worker before going for a trade and risking money. On this thread SS and Hammers are only treated as such when they occur at levels of S or R. Such reversal candles are ignored for trading triggers when they turn up in between those SR lines.

On my chart the most recent candle on the Worker is in between the 20 and the 50 MAs. This usually indicates a period of consolidation. Which way price will go after this will need to be confirmed.

Others may have different views from mine and it will be useful for you to compare responses. IMO this current situation of AUDUSD is far from clear. It doesn't 'jump out at me' and I would resist the temptation to have a go!

I think your analysis rather confirms that a trade is also not clear for you.

Good luck and don't hesitate to post a chart again.
  • #11,051
  • Edited 9:58pm Mar 28, 2010 9:41am | Edited 9:58pm
Quoting jayph
I think you know where you are coming from. But I learned from my father about math, which I am still applying it today in a lot of things. He said if you A's your homework by looking for similarity between your homework problems and examples, what happens when the teacher twists the concept a little bit on the tests. That is like us newbies looking for example from "good trades" and match it with live trading, well what happens when the market throws us a curve ball and we don't understand why a "good trade" is "good" in the first place....
You only need to pay attention to the shooting stars at the top of a swing high. The one you mention on 3/25/2010, I wouldn't give a second look. Please correct me if my thinking is wrong, this is how I see it. I would also suggest drawing your S/R and trend lines on a line on close chart, this will give you your lines on closing prices as Strat teaches. AUD/USD looks to be in a broadening pattern, study the definition at investopedia = volatility/uncertainty

Cheers,

T
T
  • #11,052
  • Mar 28, 2010 10:33am Mar 28, 2010 10:33am
Quoting strat
Some things seem so obvious that I have to get my crystal ball out again.

So, peering through the cracks, mist and fog:


USDJPY look for PA at 92.50 to go back for more wellies at 88.20
Hi All,

I want to share what I see why Strat made such statement about Usdjpy and power of the Boss in the work again. Even I am in profit for this trade and all the aspects of PA, support, and 61.8% for reasons entering a trade but it is not stree free trade because the Boss is still down. I am now fighting to over come the resistance and I don't like the chart pattern. I am appreciated more and see more on Strat's sample statement on Usdjpy because I am in the trade. I thought I post so all can benefit.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy-pattern.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #11,053
  • Mar 28, 2010 5:16pm Mar 28, 2010 5:16pm
Yes, you right tmanbone! At the begining of this thread,Nicole was talking about megaphone pattern,and was telling that USUALLY ,is a continuation of up move.We don't know (yet) if this will respect the rulls,but we'll be here to find out.Thanks.
My humble opinion.
  • #11,054
  • Mar 28, 2010 5:58pm Mar 28, 2010 5:58pm
Quoting igmal
Yes, you right tmanbone! At the begining of this thread,Nicole was talking about megaphone pattern,and was telling that USUALLY ,is a continuation of up move.We don't know (yet) if this will respect the rulls,but we'll be here to find out.Thanks.
Be careful Igmal. It is very trade-able if you can identify it early enough and you can trade bounces off the sides but if it is a megaphone then it is rare and it is a reversal pattern.
If after broadening it tightens up again (like a coil) becomes a triangle then it is also rare but a very reliable pattern.

If in doubt - stick to horizontal S&R levels
Attached Image
  • #11,055
  • Mar 28, 2010 9:57pm Mar 28, 2010 9:57pm
Quoting jayph
I think you know where you are coming from. But I learned from my father about math, which I am still applying it today in a lot of things. He said if you A's your homework by looking for similarity between your homework problems and examples, what happens when the teacher twists the concept a little bit on the tests. That is like us newbies looking for example from "good trades" and match it with live trading, well what happens when the market throws us a curve ball and we don't understand why a "good trade" is "good" in the first place....
Having said that, I am making my first attempt here to make a good observation of AUDUSD. I have tried to write something since Friday but cannot seem to executiong my thoughts clearly. Please comment and if failed, I will back to my notes to find out why I am wrong. I guess better wrong here than...out there.

Don’t ever worry about being wrong. We learn more from “being wrong” than “being right”.

I attached daily and weekly chart. Daily charts with my trendlines and SR level, including ppz at .902.

First, you need to clean up your charts. The more information you have on your charts THE MORE CONFUSED you will be. Even if you think you won’t be confused, your sub-conscious WILL be confused, believe me.

You need to remove those grid lines first then I suggest you choose a colour scheme for your candles. Next, the colour for 20 is red and the 50 blue but don’t show these “BOLD” – they need to be in the background not standing out like a sore thumb.

The same with your TLs – they should not be bold.

Finally, for posting on the thread, please post charts with white backgrounds (to save on inkjet for those who print the charts out).

On to your charts:

0.902 is a PRICE LEVEL – no ppz’s here.

Pro for down move:
1. A shorterm downtrend is developing, LH and LL's
2. Intermediate uptrend is broken
3. 3/25/2010 showed a shooting star – For the life of me, I cannot see a shooting star here. You need to go back and learn WHAT and WHERE a shooting star is

Pro for up move.
1. Big boss 20 ema still supporting PA.
2. Daily candle closed above my support at .90167 and above Fib .5 from .8800 to .9250.

So what does that tells me.

It tells me you have not done a correct analysis. You MUST always start with an analysis of the BIG BOSS. Understand what the BIG BOSS is doing then, knowing that, do an analysis of the BOSS. Are these in harmony or fighting each other?

Then finally, do an analysis of the Worker knowing the influence exerted by the two BOSSES.

If there is any conflict between these three, trading will be difficult. Wait for the Worker to turn onto the direction of the BOSS which should be in the direction of the BIG BOSS.

First, let me tackle the PA at .902 ppz on 3/26/2010. As more sell orders and stop loss happened at near/at this level driving the price down, there were even more buyers to absorb this liquidity and drove the price north to close above .90167 and aforementioned 50% Fib. So does this temporarily invalidated the shooting star on 3/25/2010 and bring resumption of a rally? I think what happened on 3/16/2010 just said that down move is halted, but if up move was to resumed, we still have intermediate downtrend and short term downtrend lines to break, in addition to resistance at .9315. If PA at these levels gives signal then we are to re-test all time high at .9850.

Psychologically and fundamentally speaking, how does one allow oneself to SELL this pair on the long term? Rollover fees seem unprofitable to SELL this pair? Going back in time, 7-01-2008 to 3-01-2009 a huge drop occured. Because I just gotten into Forex, I don't know what fundamentally caused the market to do that if the rollover fees were the same now. Well I can guess that Australian economics was not so hot then? Rollover fees were not like current? Or do rollover fees play any psychological and fundamental roll in choosing to SELL or BUY a pair. I guess this are more just thoughts than anything else.

We don’t care what the funny mentals are – we trade what the Worker, Boss and Big Boss tell us to trade.

We believe that all funny mentals are already factored into PRICE which can be seen by going through history of the charts.

Ok, just like if I was taking a trade. I did my homework, put in my SL and TP and press SUBMIT.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,056
  • Mar 28, 2010 10:17pm Mar 28, 2010 10:17pm
Quoting igmal
Hi Strat! We know you put your SL under/above the previous swing or S/R level,but when you see a hammer/inverted hammer,SS or hanging man,do you close the trade(even just a part of it),or you move the SL under/above one of the above candle in order to let the trade to breathe(just in case the candle fails)? I know that the most important is the position of that candle,and in the chart is not anymore a hammer,but in that moment I thought so.Thanks.
Hi Strat! We know you put your SL under/above the previous swing or S/R level,but when you see a hammer/inverted hammer,SS or hanging man,do you close the trade(even just a part of it),or you move the SL under/above one of the above candle in order to let the trade to breathe(just in case the candle fails)? I know that the most important is the position of that candle,and in the chart is not anymore a hammer,but in that moment I thought so.Thanks.

It all depends on your style of trading, your PLAN and when you entered and with how many positions.

This is a trend trade for me and I am loaded, fat and happy so closing positions is not even on my radar. I am still looking to ADD positions.

Now, had I entered below the shooting star on March 16 with a single ATM trade, I would protect profits above the Bond hammer.

Now, had I entered with multiple positions at the same point, I would have protected profits on some of my positions and let the others RUN.

Your SL placement must ALWAYS be part of your PLAN as must be your style.

If you enter into a trade without a PLAN, you are trading BLIND and will likely bump into something unexpected.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,057
  • Mar 28, 2010 10:19pm Mar 28, 2010 10:19pm
Quoting Lou
Downstep symmetry. Pardon me if this is stating the obvious but the length of the lines is interestingly consistent.
That's why it's called a trend, Lou.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,058
  • Mar 28, 2010 10:24pm Mar 28, 2010 10:24pm
Quoting patrick25
You know what I am looking for, the three king of same type.
three kings - Don't they come around at Christmas time?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,059
  • Mar 28, 2010 10:27pm Mar 28, 2010 10:27pm
Quoting Lotuselanman
Good for you........ I know that it is quite difficult to post a chart analysis on the board and take the risk of adverse comments....
There was a time when Christopher wouldn't have a clue how to answer this - now look at him - Trader Helping Traders!

Good for you, Christopher!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #11,060
  • Mar 28, 2010 10:27pm Mar 28, 2010 10:27pm
Strat, have you seen it?

Just finished watching Chasing Sound . Film of Les Paul's life.
I especially recommend this one. I knew he was great, but never realized or appreciated all of his musical gifts.
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