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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #59,241
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:01am Mar 26, 2010 11:01am
Quoting jarroo
The 1.0200 sure played its role very well too triger.
nicely spotted

I'm always aware of the bigger picture
  • #59,242
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:07am Mar 26, 2010 11:07am
Quoting relict07
I know that we don't use fundamentals, but I was reading the news and thought that the ECB's decision to bail out Greece might mean a turn around for the EURO.

Oddly Enough this happened on the weekly's Fibzone.

Attachment

Any Opinions?
Greece bailed out? Hmmm time to redraw some plans..
  • #59,243
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:09am Mar 26, 2010 11:09am
Quoting triggerju
Benem

I understand the idea of "cool down and take your time" but here's the thing: from looking at the charts, I cannot see why daily/weekly is better than, say, 1H. The patterns are the same, the PPZ work, the PA works, I'm not trying to rush into profit like a fool only to lose, I have lost over £30,000 in the past, believe me I know about losses. What I mean is waiting for daily/weekly setups takes a long time, waiting for 1HR takes a short amount of time, across multiple crosses you will get a signal every couple of days easily, and they...
Hey Trigger

Just MY person views below.

The idea is not to NEVER go down to lower timeframes, but starting out there most people can't make correct decisions fast enough, can't control themselves, and all the other things that a trader needs to have (patience, discipline, control of greed etc) to give themselves a chance to become the trader they want. I have seen too many people come and go b/c they don't give themselves a chance to be here in the long run. By learning to do this on the higher timeframes you are first of learning that it isn't about trading. In fact it is about waiting. You learn how important it is too wait, and also what it is like to be a winning trader. How it is not quanity , but quality. And how a few good trades CAN build any size account. Will you always stick to that timeframe? Maybe, maybe not. THat really isn't the true point of it. The point is to get to the point where the options are endless and the process to be profitable is understood.

As for R:R. Truly it is meaningless. It comes back to win % risk and all those other things. Be it you win 20% of the time and have a huer R multiple, or you win 90% of the time and have a small R multiple. I have tracked all of the above for my methods and they can work in so many different ways. That is a forex cliche that only goes so far once you know the actual numbers of your system. Making money is making money.

Again these are my beliefs after years and years now, and seeing so many traders go through the different stages. The journey you take IS entirely yours of course. But if someone is not a profitable trader(this is in general) and those that have been through it are giving what they feel will help with that curve, it might be good advice to try. At the least put whatever you do through the demo phase to see where you are at after 3-4 months, this will help the confidence part at the very least.

Again just my views!

Take care
Mike
  • #59,244
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:11am Mar 26, 2010 11:11am
Quoting triger88990
nicely spotted

I'm always aware of the bigger picture

I'm sure you are aware of the big picture, trig.

It just wasn't noted on your chart and I wanted to show the true picture of the setup with all of its confluences.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #59,245
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:11am Mar 26, 2010 11:11am
Quoting PutaMadre
Hei guy's think this time get it how pin bars looks like... One on Aussie and another one on Looney weekly TF(inverted corellation).....
Hey PM

Yes you are getting close here, but firstly zoom your charts out much more. Being that zoomed in is going to skew the bars and we must remember it is all about location, not just the bar itself. Your first bar although very zoomed in would technically be a pin, your second one would be a neutral bar. A neutral bar shows indecision in the market place and has an open and close near the middle of the bar with equalish "tails or noses" from both ends. Look for the bars like in the charts below. They smack you in the face.

Hope this helps
Mike
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  • #59,246
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:13am Mar 26, 2010 11:13am
Quoting ogeid
Hi everybody,

I would like to post this one.

I understand there is not of space above but it could make up to 100 pips.
The support level 1.585 has been rejected several times.
Any thoughts ?

Thanks
Ogeid
Hey Ogeid

I am a bit confused on your question. Are you asking if that last bar is a pin? If so(and I may have missed your question here) this bar is not a pin. Remember just because we see a long nose or tail, doesn't mean a bar has the characteristics of a true pin. The open and close must be within the prior bar.

I may have totally missed your question though

Best
Mike
  • #59,247
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:15am Mar 26, 2010 11:15am
Quoting nasir.khan
I trade locations most of the times

and PA is a bonus.
.
Yes, It is always a bonus... how did you know I was in that long trade...?
.
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  • #59,248
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:31am Mar 26, 2010 11:31am
Quoting raczekfx
Yes, It is always a bonus... how did you know I was in that long trade...?
.
Nice chart Mark & good to see that you are doing well

I forgotten how many times I have gone through them

always was a pleasure to read them


all the best!
  • #59,249
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:32am Mar 26, 2010 11:32am
Quoting jarroo
I'm sure you are aware of the big picture, trig.

It just wasn't noted on your chart and I wanted to show the true picture of the setup with all of its confluences.
  • #59,250
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:36am Mar 26, 2010 11:36am
Mike

Thanks for a great reply. When you say you have tested risk reward ratios and realise they are only good "in retrospect" so to speak, and that making money is making money, are you saying that in fact a scenario like a pinbar at a great PPZ with a 100 pip stoploss and a potential 30 pip until the first take profit zone IS in fact a good trade we should be taking, and just ignore the RR ratio? Should we just look for these great high prob setups and let them get to the area we know they should get to, then manage trade from there? (eg: go to b/e, partial take profit etc....)

You see, I always looked that the take profit PPZ area as a target to just get out entirely, thus we can calculate the RR ratio with that info (as we know stoploss and target and entry). So maybe I should throw the RR in the garbage and just play the PPZ zones (ideally at BRNs) hopefully with decent PA... plan where the target zone is and manage the trade at my discretion?

Even doing this, still, I cannot see how you can avoid being blown out with a few losing pinbars in a row... surely if you risk £100 to make £30 for too long you end up getting hit too hard?
  • #59,251
  • Edited Mar 27, 2010 9:12am Mar 26, 2010 11:36am | Edited Mar 27, 2010 9:12am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Trigger

Just MY person views below.

The idea is not to NEVER go down to lower timeframes, but starting out there most people can't make correct decisions fast enough, can't control themselves, and all the other things that a trader needs to have (patience, discipline, control of greed etc) to give themselves a chance to become the trader they want. I have seen too many people come and go b/c they don't give themselves a chance to be here in the long run. By learning to do this on the higher timeframes you are first of learning that it isn't...

I was actually working on a response to his posts for the last half hour, and came no where near to your excellent (as usually) post.

The one thing I found about higher time frames as oppose to smaller time frames is something that you said long ago that stuck in my head. Higher time frames are just a stronger signal, because they have more data, more information. The more information the stronger the signal.

Smaller times frames need much more information, almost exaggerated confluences meaning really Big bars, BRNs and multiple confluences (not just one) of PPZ, divergence etc,. , . . ok I'm starting to ramble.

Great point: Ok, prove it on the Daily and Weekly for 3 to 6 months then talk to me about smaller time frames.


Thanks Mike,


Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #59,252
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:42am Mar 26, 2010 11:42am
Quoting triger88990
It seems that it was a huge sell off from that point,

money flowed into the market that's the only confirmation you would need to know that this move is sustained by real pro selling,and that there are new fresh sellers into the market.

Now we must wait and see if this sellers have the power to go through that PPZ, if they can smash the wall, we can be pretty sure it is a valid move and we are right in our assumption over the market.

PS: I'll update it after the next important event
my mission is accomplished

we have smash that PPZ with a real hard and heavy break-out,now we know for sure that the sellers are at board.

from here on, you guys must figure out what the market will do and be prepare reacting to it accordingly

hope you did enjoy my interpretation and learn something from it

all the best!!
  • #59,253
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:48am Mar 26, 2010 11:48am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Trigger

Just MY person views below.

The idea is not to NEVER go down to lower timeframes, but starting out there most people can't make correct decisions fast enough, can't control themselves, and all the other things that a trader needs to have (patience, discipline, control of greed etc) to give themselves a chance to become the trader they want....
ciao Mike

...just wanted to say thank you for sharing this!

Andrea
  • #59,254
  • Mar 26, 2010 11:56am Mar 26, 2010 11:56am
I suppose, almost to answer myself (!), we could get the setups on daily/weekly and then drill down to small frame for a tighter stoploss and manage it that way? That way we don't risk silly big daily bar ranges as stoplosses with average targets: we can keep the "larger timeframe targets" whilst exploiting a "smaller timeframe stoploss".... maybe that's what Jim meant years ago early on in this thread???

any thoughts?

is anyone actually doing this very thing?

thanks all!!
  • #59,255
  • Mar 26, 2010 12:08pm Mar 26, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting raczekfx
Yes, It is always a bonus... how did you know I was in that long trade...?
.
Very nice indeed Rac-man.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #59,256
  • Mar 26, 2010 12:12pm Mar 26, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting triggerju
I suppose, almost to answer myself (!), we could get the setups on daily/weekly and then drill down to small frame for a tighter stoploss and manage it that way? That way we don't risk silly big daily bar ranges as stoplosses with average targets: we can keep the "larger timeframe targets" whilst exploiting a "smaller timeframe stoploss".... maybe that's what Jim meant years ago early on in this thread???

any thoughts?

is anyone actually doing this very thing?

thanks all!!
Scapling on the Daily and Weekly. By exploiting the smaller time frames with the higher time frame PA and bias. It's been done before.

The key is what to look for on the higher time frames, quality setup wise.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #59,257
  • Mar 26, 2010 12:33pm Mar 26, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting jarroo
The one thing I found about higher time frames as oppse to smaller time frames is something that you said long ago that stuck in my head. Higher time frames are just a strong signal, because they have more data, more information. The more information the strong the signal.

Smaller times frames need much more information, almost exaggerated confluences meaning really Big bars, BRNs and multiple confluences (not just one) of PPZ, divergence etc,. , . . ok I'm starting to ramble.
Interesting. Lets assume prices are driven by random noise and information. Here, information determines the path that the price follows, whereas noise reflects short term deviations from this path.
As a trader you attempt to identify the information part, and enter positions based upon that.
In order to do so, it is important to seperate this noise from the real information. As you move from lower timeframes to higher timeframes, the significance of this noise (variance) reduces and consequently the probability that the price patterns reflect information (mean) increases.
How can you increase the certainty that you don't base a trade on random noise when trading a short timeframe? Like Jarroo says, confluence is the key, as the cumulative effect of all signals increases the probability for the prophecy to be self-fulfilling.
I guess high frequency traders attempt to make decisions based on a short timeframe, as even short timeframes show some information. I don't know these traders' statistics, but probably their edge is lower (while they benefit from the large quantity of transactions) A portfolio with a return of 15% and a volatility of 10% has a 93% probability of making money in a given year, while it has a 50.02% chance of making money in a given second (taken from Taleb's Fooled by randomness).
The nail that sticks out gets hammered back in
  • #59,258
  • Mar 26, 2010 12:34pm Mar 26, 2010 12:34pm
Benji,

Minimal deposit at FXpro is 100$ not 500$
  • #59,259
  • Mar 26, 2010 12:47pm Mar 26, 2010 12:47pm
Quoting Noloqy
Interesting. Lets assume prices are driven by random noise and information. Here, information determines the path that the price follows, whereas noise reflects short term deviations from this path.
As a trader you attempt to identify the information part, and enter positions based upon that.
In order to do so, it is important to seperate this noise from the real information. As you move from lower timeframes to higher timeframes, the significance of this noise (variance) reduces and consequently the probability that the price patterns reflect information...

Yeah that's what I was trying to say. lol

Seriously though, it does make sense.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #59,260
  • Mar 26, 2010 12:48pm Mar 26, 2010 12:48pm
USDCHF H4

Attached Image


Look at the sick Pin Bar forming.
Going to go Hunt for some large pips
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