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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #5,801
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:00pm Mar 25, 2010 2:00pm
Quoting Big1red9
Hi NM,

I Hope I now have the time in my life to learn this method!

In the case of CJ, how do you judge the potential length of time in the trade vs the current ADR (which is shot for the day)? - meaning pass on it or get in,
or wait for the next 24 hr cycle? and which time zone are you running with?
JUst need to make sure that it stays above that 91.00 after the Pullback, I would treat it as a normal uptrend at this point. That is how I am going to find an entry, if the 91.00 holds then it probabaly get back into the range. But I would be looking for a longer trem trade up the around the 95.00 area is where my final TP would be if it gets going.

--NM
  • #5,802
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:53pm Mar 25, 2010 2:53pm


Quoting NightMoves
JUst need to make sure that it stays above that 91.00 after the Pullback, I would treat it as a normal uptrend at this point. That is how I am going to find an entry, if the 91.00 holds then it probabaly get back into the range. But I would be looking for a longer trem trade up the around the 95.00 area is where my final TP would be if it gets going.

--NM
  • #5,803
  • Mar 25, 2010 3:22pm Mar 25, 2010 3:22pm
I know were all kind of watching the CADJPY to see what is next, on the 15 min TF there is a H&S formation right at the resistance level, whether it has any bearing on what this pair will do I have no idea but I thought I would point it out.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: H&S.png Size: 37 KB
  • #5,804
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:03pm Mar 25, 2010 5:03pm
I'm still not convinced the CAD/JPY play is long. The daily candle shows a lot of selling pressure above 90.50. Another hour before it closes. I'm curious to see where it ends up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CADJPY 3-25-2010 16-00-10.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #5,805
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:18pm Mar 25, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting PippyD
I'm still not convinced the CAD/JPY play is long. The daily candle shows a lot of selling pressure above 90.50. Another hour before it closes. I'm curious to see where it ends up.
Yep I totally agree with that, that is why I was waiting for some kind of reassurance above that level before I got in it.

--NM
  • #5,806
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:27pm Mar 25, 2010 5:27pm
I watch this pair...

On a 4hr - the 19th has a spike to 90.00+ which I looks like drew in buyers that were slammed by the 22nd with price down to about 87.75. Chasing the down move they were reversed out again.

Maybe a plan "B" - short?

BR



Quoting PippyD
I'm still not convinced the CAD/JPY play is long. The daily candle shows a lot of selling pressure above 90.50. Another hour before it closes. I'm curious to see where it ends up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cj1.png Size: 75 KB
  • #5,807
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:49pm Mar 25, 2010 5:49pm
Quoting Big1red9
I watch this pair...

On a 4hr - the 19th has a spike to 90.00+ which I looks like drew in buyers that were slammed by the 22nd with price down to about 87.75. Chasing the down move they were reversed out again.

Maybe a plan "B" - short?

BR
If the level it is at now holds then I think it will head back toward the bottom of the channel, there is a H&S reversal on the smaller time frame so this could easily head back down. I think down has a better chance than up at this point but I am not going in either direction until I get better idea what is going to happen to it.

--NM
  • #5,808
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:50pm Mar 25, 2010 5:50pm
The AU also looks like it is getting ready to head south again.

--NM
  • #5,809
  • Edited 6:05pm Mar 25, 2010 5:52pm | Edited 6:05pm
Plan "A" need PA confirmation above 91.00

Plan "B" needs a setup and confirmation below 90.00

BR
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CJ_Pb.png Size: 83 KB
  • #5,810
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:58pm Mar 25, 2010 5:58pm
Quoting Big1red9
Plan "A" need PA confirmation above 91.00

Plan "B" needs a setup and conformation below 90.00

BR
Yes sir, those are the 2 plans I have in my playbook for that pair at the moment.
--NM
  • #5,811
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:08pm Mar 25, 2010 6:08pm
Is anyone looking at the chf/jpy?
  • #5,812
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:18pm Mar 25, 2010 6:18pm
Quoting Andy_G
Is anyone looking at the chf/jpy?
I did see it, and it may go up but it is like range trading in the middle of a range, there is a big mess it is in right now I think.

--NM
  • #5,813
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:18pm Mar 25, 2010 6:18pm
Could be mega move

Thinking short at 90.50 Anti-hedge it at 91.50

If it breaks to lower channel - could be a 1000 pip move.

BR

QUOTE=NightMoves;3585557]The AU also looks like it is getting ready to head south again.

--NM[/quote]
  • #5,814
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:52pm Mar 25, 2010 6:52pm
Quoting Big1red9
Could be mega move

Thinking short at 90.50 Anti-hedge it at 91.50

If it breaks to lower channel - could be a 1000 pip move.

BR

QUOTE=NightMoves;3585557]The AU also looks like it is getting ready to head south again.

--NM
[/quote]
I know it could be a good size move in either direction.

--NM
  • #5,815
  • Mar 26, 2010 4:29am Mar 26, 2010 4:29am
Quoting NightMoves
The AU also looks like it is getting ready to head south again.

--NM
yep, I just wanted to post the same thing. Could become a 700 pip move. Trying to add on each retracement back to one of the marked S/R levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd h4 26.3.2010.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #5,816
  • Mar 26, 2010 6:56am Mar 26, 2010 6:56am
Hi,
NightMoves what do you think about this trade?

Setup chart AUDJPY 30M and trigger 5M.
Enter: BPC range 83.91
In-trade management : after BPC round number 84.00 I moved SL on 83.95 ( 5 pips below RN)
and price hit my SL
and then went to the TP 84.29

Please comment,
Thanks,
Magnes
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: setupchart.gif Size: 26 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trigger chart.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #5,817
  • Edited 7:40am Mar 26, 2010 7:27am | Edited 7:40am
Quoting Magnes
Hi,
NightMoves what do you think about this trade?

Setup chart AUDJPY 30M and trigger 5M.
Enter: BPC range 83.91
In-trade management : after BPC round number 84.00 I moved SL on 83.95 ( 5 pips below RN)
and price hit my SL
and then went to the TP 84.29

Please comment,
Thanks,
Magnes
Attachment

Attachment
HI Magnes,
I attached the chart, you only really had a 1 bar pull back before the big one came, you should move SL to BE when you hit your first TP and then the market has a little more room to move. I like to place my SL if I am near an RN about 10 10 15 pips beyond the RN to allow for some over shoot. ON the hourly chart it looks as though this pair has really changed trend directions. Making lower highs and lows.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Magnes chart.png Size: 142 KB
  • #5,818
  • Mar 26, 2010 7:45am Mar 26, 2010 7:45am
Looks like the EU might be in a good spot to look for a short entry. All that is needed is a good BPC of the counter trendline.

--NM
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Hitting trend line.png Size: 33 KB
  • #5,819
  • Mar 26, 2010 9:50am Mar 26, 2010 9:50am
I wonder if that news from the EU and Greece is going to turn this trend around.

--NM
  • #5,820
  • Mar 26, 2010 9:58am Mar 26, 2010 9:58am
Quoting NightMoves
I wonder if that news from the EU and Greece is going to turn this trend around.

--NM
hm, I think at least it could consolidate for a while. But wouldn't think that the trend continues. Technically we need a big pullback. And fundamentally, the EU now has a common plan for managing greece and possibly other countries in the EU, but let's see.
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