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7am-9am Big Dog USD Breakout Strategy

  • #2,481
  • Mar 24, 2010 1:11pm Mar 24, 2010 1:11pm
Hi Pianosax

Just to see you would be intrested in back testing the system I've been watching . It would be good to get a second opinion as I feel this is a good syetem which we all couldn get more pips if it works, but as been new to forex I could have got ot wrong. Appreciate your time if your interested.

Regards

Gary A
Quoting pianosax12
Well, since i'm recuperating and the dodgy tickers decided to keep going for a while, i thought i'd try and make myself useful,and revisit the thread.
Scott, wheres spike? Has he dissapeared, counting up his pips?
Anyway, this week i've used Slc settings, 8-10.
So far: monday +27
tues +10 ( it broke to the upside, but i didn't fancy it)
I do like the breakout, but can it be harnessed?
Slc has some stellar results, lets see if we can't iron out any problems, but to be up over 400 pips, deserves a round of applause!!

Cheers

P.s. I'm here to be...
  • #2,482
  • Mar 24, 2010 3:50pm Mar 24, 2010 3:50pm
thats why u shouldnt get into trade with lower profit target than stop loss...
  • #2,483
  • Mar 24, 2010 5:13pm Mar 24, 2010 5:13pm
Quoting Rgali1
Yes SCL saw that today. On the Euro/USD pair this method would have lost you a bunch of pips as it triggered an open position and hit the SL of both the pending buy and the sell. So how do we void days like this? This is a big loss for those that are using 15 pips take profit or even 10 pips thats like over a weeks worth of profit gone in one trade.
Yes . . . this is why (of course . . . opinion only here) is why you or I should try to trade in the direction of the trend, and not to just arbitrarily place orders at the top and bottom. Can you avoid getting taken out on both ends? I don't think so, but you can minimize your loss by things you have control over . . . such as when or when NOT to place and order. Also I suggest specializing in one pair so you can predict its action based on how it has been acting.

Take a look at the chart below. Hmmm . . . without even looking at candles, do you think you should be looking at a long or a short?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 Mar. 24 14.51.gif Size: 35 KB


I am at B/E right now, well okay +3.5 pips, but that dosent really count. Was as high as +23. The trend (PA) looks good on the daily, 4hr, 1hr and you can see the 15m. Stochastics are bottomed out on the most all of the TF's, so I am looking for some sort of a retrace. Who knows, maybe its happening tonight?

Lastly, I have mentioned (opinon only again) that this system really requires some baby-sitting if you want to get the best results. I think by doing so, you can maximize your results and minimize your losses. Bottom line is to do what YOU are comfortable with, and have the time to do so.

Good luck!
  • #2,484
  • Mar 25, 2010 2:56am Mar 25, 2010 2:56am
Hey SLC,

I have tried to search but couldn't find anything in regards of your stop loss placement, some visual backtesting showed a entry of about 5 pips outside the box plus spread, and a stoploss of about 20 pips plus spread would be a good average? Or do you use the whole box as a stop? I know position sizing is important and you can obviuosly risk any percentage like 2% of equity on 20 or a 100 pips, but I still like smaller stops.. What is your thoughts on this?

regards,

anderou
Thank you j16!
  • #2,485
  • Mar 25, 2010 9:45am Mar 25, 2010 9:45am
Yesterdays trade broke even on London open... didn't bother to trade us open because of the lack of momentum... Today's trades took +25 on London open and +17 on the US.. +117 for the week. Happy trading!
  • #2,486
  • Edited 11:10am Mar 25, 2010 10:48am | Edited 11:10am
Quoting anderou
Hey SLC,

I have tried to search but couldn't find anything in regards of your stop loss placement, some visual backtesting showed a entry of about 5 pips outside the box plus spread, and a stoploss of about 20 pips plus spread would be a good average? Or do you use the whole box as a stop? I know position sizing is important and you can obviuosly risk any percentage like 2% of equity on 20 or a 100 pips, but I still like smaller stops.. What is your thoughts on this?

regards,

anderou
I have done this both ways. To be honest, my SL placement varies. I am not trading live yet, but very close to it and will be using this system when I do. This is the way I figure it. Currently in my demo (started with $2,000 us) on March 2nd. 1% at that time was 20 pips, trading .1 lot per trade. That was how much I risked per trade. If the first few trades went against me and my equity shrunk, I still used 20 pips as my base. Fortunately, this really didn't happen very often. So here it is, March 25 . . . 16 trading days later. My account is now at $2,930 so this means I can risk 29 or 30 pips safely at 1% risk. I risked a little more than 1% and the trade went against me for a loss of -42 pips. Now the long got entered and it is now down too. Sometimes this happens . . . just the nature of the game. I am selective with trades and can watch them while at work (for the most part), and tend to try to only place orders in relation to the trend. I also only trade one pair, eur/usd. Sometimes I also will trade .2 lots depending on how strong I feel the trend is. It is all subjective.

Monday +27
Tuesday +91.8 (closed after overnight run)
Wednesday +34
Thursday -42 SL hit, in new position currently -16

Week +100 (met weekly goal, provided I don't lose more today)
March +555

More is better, but I figure if I can increase my account by 10-20% a month that would be fine. Really who wouldn't be happy if they could invest thier money an earn at least 10-20% a year (much less a month)?
  • #2,487
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:02pm Mar 25, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting boophaty
Yesterdays trade broke even on London open... didn't bother to trade us open because of the lack of momentum... Today's trades took +25 on London open and +17 on the US.. +117 for the week. Happy trading!
I'd like to try the London Open, to bad it it so late at night. I can't stay awake. It is the best session to trade, and usually offers up the most pips too.

Good luck boophaty, great results!!
  • #2,488
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:18pm Mar 25, 2010 12:18pm
Quoting boophaty
Yesterdays trade broke even on London open... didn't bother to trade us open because of the lack of momentum... Today's trades took +25 on London open and +17 on the US.. +117 for the week. Happy trading!
Can you please tell me what times you trade im in the UK GMT. I would like to test it out.
  • #2,489
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:17pm Mar 25, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting FXtraderr
Can you please tell me what times you trade im in the UK GMT. I would like to test it out.

The times that I trade are 12-2am and then again at 7-9am.. I'm MST so the time is going to be different I trade on a higher time frame, because I feel I can read candles better that way.. So far I'm having a blast trading these times.
  • #2,490
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:33pm Mar 25, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting slc12312

Monday +27
Tuesday +91.8 (closed after overnight run)
Wednesday +34
Thursday -42 SL hit, in new position currently -16

Week +100 (met weekly goal, provided I don't lose more today)
March +555

More is better, but I figure if I can increase my account by 10-20% a month that would be fine. Really who wouldn't be happy if they could invest thier money an earn at least 10-20% a year (much less a month)?

Sky's the limit bro! That is very much possible.... You're hittin' some pips to man. Great results... Since I've been trading this on a Live account I have not had a loss....stopped out quite a bit tho haha.. You are going to do very well when the time comes for you to trade Live.. Many pips man
  • #2,491
  • Mar 25, 2010 4:18pm Mar 25, 2010 4:18pm
Quoting gangsta1
Wow guys this thread has come along way since I was active on it. I did give up for different adventures (mainly into the dark and delightful world of EA's!!).

Hows everyone getting on with the strategy? Dubai Trader still around?
Yes, it has been a while. No can't say that I have seen a post from Dubai Trader since around the time you left. Did you ever go live?
  • #2,492
  • Mar 25, 2010 6:04pm Mar 25, 2010 6:04pm
Hello traders correct me if I am wrong but demo trading is to test your trading system and get a feel for price action and not to see if you can make a certain amount of pips or whatever the trader is trying to do as far as building there account up.trade a micro account .5 .10 per pip for real money. PS: Their is no emotion in demo trading.
  • #2,493
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:17pm Mar 25, 2010 8:17pm
Quoting monikroc
Hello traders correct me if I am wrong but demo trading is to test your trading system and get a feel for price action and not to see if you can make a certain amount of pips or whatever the trader is trying to do as far as building there account up.trade a micro account .5 .10 per pip for real money. PS: Their is no emotion in demo trading.
Can't say if you are wrong or right. My thought on a demo is that it is an account that allows a person to practice on, to hone their skills, to learn to see price action, to learn S/R, practice fib's and other indicators. A way for the new or experienced trader to find their way, or to test a new system. It can really be anything you want it to be . . . except a way to lose real money.

I do have to disagree about the pips. To me, pips mean success. If I can dial a system in and can generate a positive amount of pips over a matter of time, then I know it will be successful in real trading. It becomes habit and routine.

You know, I do get upset when I lose pips on a demo, there is emotion. To me, virtual money is real money . . . maybe not for others, thats why I hate to play games like monopoly . . . I hate to lose it with a roll of dice.

You are ABSOLUTELY correct when you said that trading with REAL money brings in a new dimension, and a micro account would be a great way to experience the emotion.

I enjoyed your comment! Made me think of something other than the trading day!
  • #2,494
  • Mar 29, 2010 11:26am Mar 29, 2010 11:26am
How did you guys play the E/U today? Anyone with a SL before the high most likely got stop out or is still sitting on a loss. Today is yet another day where this system has failed me. I am get more like a 50% win/loss ratio.
Former Trader Of the Year of the 95% losing club! Retired
  • #2,495
  • Mar 29, 2010 11:41am Mar 29, 2010 11:41am
Quoting Rgali1
How did you guys play the E/U today? Anyone with a SL before the high most likely got stop out or is still sitting on a loss. Today is yet another day where this system has failed me. I am get more like a 50% win/loss ratio.
My order has not been triggered yet, on either side. Most likely because I trade 8-10am EST as opposed to 7-9am EST. I am thinking about cancelling both as the market seems to be ranging a little bit today.

Are you long or short?
  • #2,496
  • Edited 12:00pm Mar 29, 2010 11:48am | Edited 12:00pm
I've noticed today is that was a good strong break-out on all usd major pairs on the london open so I think thats why on the us open we dont see much action
  • #2,497
  • Mar 29, 2010 9:04pm Mar 29, 2010 9:04pm
Quoting slc12312
My order has not been triggered yet, on either side. Most likely because I trade 8-10am EST as opposed to 7-9am EST. I am thinking about cancelling both as the market seems to be ranging a little bit today.

Are you long or short?
I trade the 7-9. I had a short and i've been playing around with which SL to use. I got stoped out using a 30 pip SL. I also have a problem with letting the profits ride I am too quick to close a postive trade because I have had so many go against me so I close them at 10 pips. However a day like today has already killed this week for me.
Former Trader Of the Year of the 95% losing club! Retired
  • #2,498
  • Mar 30, 2010 12:48am Mar 30, 2010 12:48am
Quoting Rgali1
I trade the 7-9. I had a short and i've been playing around with which SL to use. I got stoped out using a 30 pip SL. I also have a problem with letting the profits ride I am too quick to close a postive trade because I have had so many go against me so I close them at 10 pips. However a day like today has already killed this week for me.
I will start to look at closing the open trade at 15 pips. It all depends on how strong I think the trend is and the time of the day it is. Once I place my orders, I don't look at them for at least an hour. Usually by then one side has triggered, and if I think the short term trend has any steam left . . . I'll close half if positive, and let the other half run at B/E. Most often price reverses and I get closed.

Are you using a buffer? I use 3 pips above or below the high and low. This kept me out of a short, which I assume is the one that got you. My long ended up getting triggered, went about +12 pips and right now is -1.

Good luck tuesday!

Don't get discouraged. Use good money management, don't close too early, don't enter both sides if you don't think you should. You don't have too. Try to trade one pair only for a while, stick to it to learn that pairs movements. If you can determine the trend, try placing a pending on that side. If it doesn't get hit, then no loss . . . and no loss is as good as a win.

I believe this system works, as long as you tweek it to your comfort level and don't take unesessary risks. I am up close to +600 pips on my demo for March, and did close to that in February. I have been practicing this ONE system and nothing else for two months straight, everyday, at the same time. Just be consistent if you can.

Good luck again!
  • #2,499
  • Mar 30, 2010 12:56pm Mar 30, 2010 12:56pm
hey slc,

What is your average risk:reward ratio with this strategy?

regards
Thank you j16!
  • #2,500
  • Mar 30, 2010 4:59pm Mar 30, 2010 4:59pm
Quoting anderou
hey slc,

What is your average risk:reward ratio with this strategy?

regards
Hi Anderou,
okay, I know you should shoot for at least 1:1 with 1:2 or 1:3 being pretty good. With that said, I have to say that " I don't know". The way I trade this system is in a way where I expect to get at least 10 pips or more. I will close early, sometimes with just a few pips, which would really skew R/R.

I probably approach the system from more of a scalping mentality. I do use stops for protection, but not in the same way as I would for longer positions when shooting for larger gains
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