Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1269090740

Ding, ding, ding! Well my A/U trade sucks but at least USDX hit 50% fib and it only took three days.

SSI: A Dramatic Breakout for USDJPY Prompts a 27% in Longs and 72% Surge in Short Positions
Wednesday, 24 Mar 2010 17:28 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at -1.23 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.93 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 27.8% lower than yesterday and 25.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 71.4% higher than yesterday and 74.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.1% stronger than yesterday and 2.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY gains.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.52 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.8% higher than yesterday and 24.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.4% lower than yesterday and 30.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.5% stronger than yesterday and 1.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.75 as nearly 64% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.18 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.3% higher than yesterday and 46.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 21.5% lower than yesterday and 36.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.0% weaker than yesterday and 1.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at -1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.45 as 59% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 24.3% lower than yesterday and 0.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 17.7% higher than yesterday and 6.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.2% weaker than yesterday and 2.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.90 as nearly 66% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.40 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 17.5% lower than yesterday and 30.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 39.3% lower than yesterday and 27.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 26.6% weaker than yesterday and 2.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 2.79 as nearly 74% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.21 as 81% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.0% lower than yesterday and 12.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 31.2% higher than yesterday and 2.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.6% weaker than yesterday and 30.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.03 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.58 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 23.2% higher than yesterday and 49.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 19.6% lower than yesterday and 26.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.0% weaker than yesterday and 4.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.09 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.08 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.5% higher than yesterday and 23.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 13.0% higher than yesterday and 15.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 13.3% stronger than yesterday and 8.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

Hey Kim - you mean you went long US$ and short CAD when it broke support last week? I was long US$ and short CAD as well when it broke. My charts told me don't, sentiment told me don't, Shahab mentioned that he didn't like it because it was hanging around support but I was already in and of course, it broke. Ha, ha - they are only small positions anyway, not account breakers and I've already cleared a couple of them. I had visions of waiting a year ..... lol

Well there wasn't a lot of bloodshed. I only set stops to pull me in as I wasn't going to be around. I usually like to watch the PA on the A/U when shorting because it's such a hard nut. I was looking for at least 0.9000, got a 38.2% fib at 0.8994 or 200 SMA on daily currently at 0.8776 would have been nice but I'll get out of la la land now. This baby just doesn't want to go down and I see that US stocks basically stabilised yesterday so it didn't help.

hello shahab .. i enjoy to read your posts and others here and as im new hear (activlely) I need to ask you on a post you wrote here (and I qoute) :

Long U/Cad at 1.0230 SL=1.0140 TP=TBD , will add at 1.0160 if the S>R>S at 1.020 doesnt hold

are you (as I saw on chart ) using stop and reverse in a few of your trades here , I can see according to the above trade that USD-CAD has big support @ 1.0160 without looking at any oscilators but only and just price action.
so what do you mean by S>R>S ??? thank U and others here for great analysis .

ronen.

hi, by S>R>S I meant 1.0220 acted as support/resistance couple of times, and as you see it failed this time, the red lines are not SL they are my TP levels , and the one below the price belongs to buy limit order at 1.0160,

I do use oscillators and indicators, may one or two- for instance,
for this failed Kiwi short trade I see hidden bearish divergence , i added to my losing shorts but the risk is limited to the original plan (SL is a 4h close above .7080)
in U/cad chart, I expect a bounce from 55ema , however the pull backs are more than what I expected, we will see if I'm wrong before NY close.
for now N/U -35 pips U/Cad -30 pips ,

Worked out perfectly and pips in the bank..

Have a good day

Geppyg

Hi Puks,

I hope you made those change from1.3285 to 1.3250....

Geppyg

Hi guys,

I survived the early Europe stop hunt. Still in the game. Please see the attached chart. As long as Price remains under the current downward channel a bounce is expected towards 1.3440-60.

Personally I would like Price to go up to 1.3480 which is a 61.8% retracement of 1.3816-1.3283.

Fingers crossed.

G'day Geppyg,
nice call (to the pip) and perfect timing to take profit off the table, as always.

Puks, hope all is well, check your pm

try to close them at 1.3410-40 R zone

G'day Patience,
I excepted those retracement in A/U and others, I wasnt patient enough for my U/Cad long to get a better long entry though.
to me E/U is a sell even in current level (1.3350), and A/U is at a good level considering RRR , besides that's the first time in last couple of days we are heading toward NY session after an uptrend in A/U and E/U, I think that's a good sign to see some action in A/U during NY session , I'm loading A/U shorts heavily at .9125-30

are you looking for 1.04ish on your long cad entries?

G'day Shahab

Retest of broken resistance first?

that would be expected (technically and oversold situation in couple of TFs)
my personal opinion - no more than 1.3380 today

hi , why 1.04? I prefer to buy at 1.0160
did you mean the target? the 1st target is S>R at 1.0320 you showed that in the other chart

Usd-cad has support at 1.0180 by 4H chart trend line also macd confirm the long side but sto is turning down so for now to my opinion it is on hold.
As long as 1.0140-1.0155 holds and 1.0280 break higher the target should be 1.0370 (daily low 22.03)...

o.k , made my first view ever on trades here ,

good luck to all.

i mean 1.04 as a target not as an entry.

i am already in at 1.023 after the daily closed above s/r.

Yeah, that makes sense. I've got daily pivot @ 1.3375. Daily range for last 60 days has been 135 pips so could try for 1.3400. We've got risk on for today so far - Dubai being sorted out + US futures green as well as FTSE and Dax. The A/U can go take a flying jump - I have a love/hate relationship with this currency now.

yes I did mate. also added a position at 1.3290 which I cleared at 1.3320 so now only waiting for 1.3420 to close all my trapped longs but I have a feeling that the short covering rally will take us closer to 1.35xx somewhere around 1.3480

1. There is no reason this information should not be released daily if not hourly. We live in a completely differet world then when this index was 1st created.

COT is too slow - one week delay. If your serious about trading sentiment data check out SSI from Daily FX - 2 day delay w/ acct or google the RPM Fx indicator. It shows live trader positioning in the market on MT4 charts. It's read like the SSI, Ratio of buyers to seller, 1.5 = 1.5 buyers to every 1 seller.

SL hit on my kiwi shorts, -50 and -20 pips on positions,
what a good start for my day!! errrr...
it should happen, when I was biased with my wrong call and ignoring the obvious

Goldman Sachs Quits Losing Bet on Euro-Dollar Advance

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. exited a bet the euro would climb against the dollar after the trade lost 2.8 percent amid concern the European Union is unable to agree on an aid plan for Greece, undermining the common currency.

“We have clearly underestimated the impact on the euro from the European sovereign crisis and perhaps also from the broader macro adjustment that it portends,” five analysts including Thomas Stolper, London-based economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in an e-mail to Bloomberg today. “These political headwinds currently matter far more for the euro than the cyclical factors.”

Goldman entered the trade “slightly less than two weeks ago,” and stands to lose 2.8 percent after being “stopped out” yesterday, the analysts wrote. The U.S. bank had advised investors to place an automatic instruction to sell the euro should it close below $1.3500.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aPub9lnS6uzA

He, he, he - they should have called you Shahab for your opinion. They should rename themselves "Goldman Sucks"