Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

I'm still here. I've been down the other end of the thread going back over Skunny's stuff now that I have a better grasp of this stuff. I've seen Dick Thompson's article before, I think you showed me it, can't remember now.

There's a lot more to Skunny's way than the zero breakouts, but ultimately that's where you take the trade. It's a matter of putting the fib in the right place to start with.

Sizzler still makes me laugh, would be nice if he popped in.

I have a pretty good grasp of what Thomknight does (where is he now?) but Skunny's way is slightly different I believe. As ever, if I have a eureka moment I will tell!

MD.

Fibs within fibs. Another good day.



MD.

Well, after my flawed prediction I went back to basic with fibs.

So far, I have been investigating the logic of the fib-pro-trader software I linked to and taken a close look at the video they posted about the logic.

Using fractals for assistance in fib placing, I have plastered fibs over the last three swings in order to find confluence... and much to my amazement, price attracts itself like a magnet to areas of confluence before changing direction.

Higher timeframe fibs (usually from larger swings) are stronger than smaller fibs, but when they all line up.... that's where we take profit and then place a reverse trade to go the other way. In doing so, we can see ahead of time where price must go.

In fact, it can be that predictable, that we can *almost* pre-fib out that confluence area before we get there and see another "move in the future" and find where we head next. I say almost because what sometimes happens is that price sometimes breaks through confluence and makes a new high/low just a bit past the level before turning around, and the next fib has to be readjusted as a result to take this little extra push into consideration, (but only after it happens). It seems from these extra push-through movements that the market has a shot at changing the strength of moves.

Eventually however, once price starts going sideways and into tight range ready for breakout, all the fibs line up usually a good distance outside the tight range, and this is magic to watch when price breaks though the confluence ranges on either side of the tight range.... it rushes to the next most confluent area... ping-ponging of the weaker fibs on the way.

Anyway, I've had a little bit of success scalping on the M5, and the action is very fast. A string of 6 wins with very small pips (and one loss where price pushed a bit past confluence before turning around)

Hello mate. Stick some charts up to show us what you've been doing.

Hey Thom! Where are you. What do you think of GBPJPY?



MD.

Inspired initially by the software (which drew fibs and extensions all over the place between 1,2,3 points)... I remembered that skunny mentioned just using the 138, 0, and 100 fibs only... so I cut a lot of fibs out of the mix. Then I remembered that he mentioned the no-lag zig zig.... so I combined all ideas into the chart (and subsequent winning trade) you see below.

You can easily see what I did, and what the rather graphic results were. (EURUSD M5)
Since the support was broken rather decisively, the price had nowhere else to go other than the downside to the next confluence.
I'm also noticing how price attempted to bounce off the original support, failed to hit the next confluence up (there wasn't really one that stood out), and then fell back down again. Had I attempted to trade off that bounce up, I would not have lost much because the stop would have been firmly behind the support.

Actually there was an important fib just below my TP which got taken out and pushed the price further down, but I was already out of the trade by then.

The trick seems to be (as in the fib trader software) finding out which fibs are more important/significant, and culling the unimportant ones.

I think I can also see why Skunny does away with all other fibs except 138... and that's because doing the same fib dance on higher timeframes usually pinpoints the same places that other retracement fibs (38,61, 50) on lower timeframes would have shown anyway.

Thanks for coming back. Skunny only suggested using the non lag zig zag because there were a lot of guys who couldn't discern where s/r was. He said do not trade with it. I'm sure you can spot s/r without it.

If this system is working for you then use it, it looks a bit messy to my old eyes, don't wish to sound rude. If you get your fibs in the right place then that's all that matters.

MD.

Hey MisterDaz.

I went and looked back again through the thread and saw how skunny said something about fibs belonging on completed cycles (and something else about their correct placement, maybe you can correct me here)

Anyway, with that in mind, I pulled up a chart and this time hunted down as many swings with completed cycles as I could.

There was one swing, however, that would have NEARLY made it (but didn't) ... so I dragged the fib up from the bottom, and it gave me a secret message to the downside.... and look what happened...

Really racking my brains here. I'm still having trouble cracking this nut. Hopefully I'm a bit closer.

I'm glad someone is still posting here, be a shame for this thread to fizzle out.

Please do me one big favour, change your background on your charts to a lighter colour, I'm finding it hard to read them. I must be getting old!

I've gone back over Skunny's posts and each time they make a bit more sense but to be fair I've learnt the most from Thomknight. I've been using what I think is his method, or something very similar since January. I hardly ever lose! I think his way is very close to Skunny's original ideas as he praises Skunny in some of his posts. 138.2 is always the target on my fibs, nothing more.

My more recent charts have been using something akin to Thom's style, they work!

I'll try to post more charts when I get time.

Good luck mate and I'm here if you have any questions.

MD.

Here's a chart Naynay. Cable. I wasn't going to touch today with the budget going on but I nearly pulled the trigger for a short at 1.4960.

This chart has everything we are looking for. We start by looking for a 61.8 fit then take it from there. Pierces of zero (a hint to the downside), perfect respect and rejection of 38.2 then take the zero break.

Hope you like it.



MD.

Cheers for that chart MD. I think I get it now. Now that I look at it (and backtest it a bit) I can tell it's the holy grail

I also notice that where the price bounces of the 61 (where you have aligned the fib), misses a break of the 100, and goes back beyond the 61, that there's a change in direction happening (maybe on a higher timeframe). Have to reverse the direction of fib placement

That way, we know for sure where price IS going, and when to ignore our set up and change direction.

SO anyway, with the help of some fractals, I've rearranged the fib on the way down. Seems as if we're in the profit area of another active trade. Looks like price has a date with 1.4845... amirite? amirite?

That fib is not tradable. Don't mention holy grail either, the flamers will get you.

I'm busy at moment so I'll talk later but you need more respect than one hit. Read Thom's posts, I spent 3 months trying to figure it out and I still have more questions for Thom. I have taken my own interpretation of them for now. You may see something else in them but whatever you do they are well worth the effort.

MD.

This post of mine should give you more hints for what we are looking for.

MD.

Hi Guys, apologies for my long absence (personal issues).

Did someone say Holy Grail....

Shhhhhh

Good to see the thread is still plodding along.

Oh sorry, I meant Moley Quail


Cool. Will check that out.

How you keeping mate?

Hey, don't mention the Grail, Scotty will get you!

(Just kidding Scotty).

Great Scott, I got one right!

You probably know that the usd index is made up of a basket of currencies but the majority of it is weighted by eur usd. So when eur usd goes down the usd index generally goes up and visa versa.

Well done mate.

MD.

Great thanks Md,
and how are you.

Compass.

Still chipping away at the fib trading and doing very well with it on a demo account. Thinking about throwing a little bit on a live account, looking forward to the day I can jack my job in (dream on).

I hope your personal issues we not too alarming!

MD.

This is a tracking fib, just observing.



MD.