Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Don't talk about the Italians that way! Greeks, maybe.

No...you are all correct...falling knives it would be.......but honestly, if I see a pause at a Nicola-certified support line, I may be tempted to chase a stall, based purely on the bargain approach...provided of course that the ultra long term trend remains up.

No worries - I knew I was up for a bit of fun with that one. Good work.

Strat...that fifty on Dollar-Yen has two weekly R levels to give it some muscle. I would like to see 92.30 broken and retested before the neck line is taken out to hold my longs. But, against it all, as Blackeagle intimates.....it did smack of a bit of a knee jerk today. We will see the reaction at week's end. A monthly TL is a monthly TL, though. Maybe I am done stubbing my toes.

If I recall, Strat, you perceptively called USDJPY a flag a few dozens of posts ago. It's no longer a flag....let's see if it's a fakeout.

Elitejets sums it up well as usual - I like that risk aversion reference - that could prove interesting, though I see some indices-supporting bullishness in E/J short and medium term.

To use my farm lingo, the last large Greek currency downmove took 4 downward picks of the hoe.......this one is on....er.....1...2....3....hmmmm. Month-end perhaps may be a time to water the seedlings! Perhaps I can get a farm subsidy from Dr. Papoulias.

100% agree.

Anyone here take the series 34 test with the national futures association in America? If so, any advice?

Thanks

Great points there - My own view still is loyal to AUDUSD at this point on the basis of the monthly chart and a somewhat pale downmove over the last two weeks. It may topple yet, but I am not leaping off the tower for now.

Now may be the time for the dreaded volume analysis...what was the volume of EURUSD futures today? How does one spell c-a-p-i-t-u-l-a-t-i-o-n? Seriously. I have not looked yet.

Despite bullish noises from the EW camps, I still see AUDUSD range bound between 0.8650 and 0.93.

Yesterday's Euro down move was on above average volume yet the big boys are reducing their net short positions - is there something afoot?

We'll find that out tomorrow.

Shorts against the euro fell 37% in the week ended March 16 from the previous week's record levels. So we'll see what happens this week.

We've been here before

it is this chart that is stopping me from going full shorts on EU or GU.....

Next station?

Talking about falling knives...

Interesting action in the US bond market the last few days. Blackeagle, can you post another daily chart of the US 10 year when you get the chance?

The market has been all about bonds the last couple of days.
Yesterday the US auctioned 2yr treasuries and today 5yr treasuries as it sells off debt. Let's just say the auctions did not go well, bonds are crashing (particularly the longer dated ones) and yields are spiking up to year highs. When bond yields go up so does USDJPY.
Yields on long dated bonds like the 10yr and 30yr are also very bad for the real estate market as it will push up morgage rates in an already fragile market trying to recover.

You might hear of the auctions as having long tails. Treasury rates are determined as part of a Treasury auction, which occurs on a regularly scheduled quarterly cycle. The result of the auction is called the rate. Non-winning bids are published by the Treasury at the same time as the winning rate. Non-winning bids are called the auction "tail" and are the number of basis points between the winning bid and the non-winning bid. In a well supported auction that number is low, a short tail means the auction was well bid and a long tail means it was not well bid.
The last two auctions were not failures but had very long tails. The result was that prices fell hard and yields went up sharply along with USDJPY and the USD across the board.

The US has a lot of debt to auction and this is not a good sign. The message is sinking in to stocks and commodities and what are known as "risk" currencies like AUD. It could lead to a sell off in stocks.
I would be careful with USDJPY because it is also influenced by stocks and if equities sell off we could see some downward pressure on USDJPY but the dollar continue to rally hard across the board. The only thing that can help bond prices up again is a fall off in stocks.
Stocks going down *usually* mean XXXJPY's go down.

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Alexandra - I like the 132 level on EURUSD as a measured move or 100% fib expansion target but it might just wobble there.

Yeah, Bernanke's little "experiment" is going to bite him in the butt one way or another!

Hi All,

Audcad:

Be open mind no bias just follow price and SR. 9250 is a strong support level. If price closes strong below this level and weekly 50, next station will be 8867 level. This kind of charts happens again and again, I think way back Blackeagle posted one. Will watch this one real time.

If you don't belive Strat says price usually makes strong move after been boxed by 20 & 50, you better belive it. I will only look for PA after price has moved out of the box of 20&50.

Alexandra - I like the 132 level on EURUSD as a measured move or 100% fib expansion target but it might just wobble there.

Just purely from a technical view and nothing else, psycho 1.3 seems to have a lot going for it. The actual PRICE level on my data is 1.2980/86.

The $USDX is very interesting. It is powering up but without anything behind it and forex isn't following.

Must be Nicola's secret agent at work!

You are one very observant and SMART student Patrick - you will do well!

I like that post. That is an excellent stress-free filtering technique actually. No, I don't always use it, but it does point out in sharp relief the way Strat can hone in on the higher probablity short term trades.