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  • #19,801
  • Mar 24, 2010 6:27pm Mar 24, 2010 6:27pm
Quoting amyc
I seem to be the only one here who is thinking this but I don't see this as the beginning of the next downtrend yet in au.
Me neither (you're not alone).

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=19736
  • #19,802
  • Mar 24, 2010 6:36pm Mar 24, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting amyc
I seem to be the only one here who is thinking this but I don't see this as the beginning of the next downtrend yet in au. I don't think that will happen until the indicies start to fall and i don't see that happening until at least 1200 is hit on the S&P, probably in early April. I see consolidation for the rest of March for au and then a move higher in early April before any fall starts. Just my 2c.
Finally! I agree Amyc. S&P is Not rolling over just yet it's just topping (and this can take several candles). It will test that 1200 level! Daily candle suggests more gains according to historical candles as well.

I might also add that in the event that we do roll over on the S&P it is quite probable that it will only last for 10 candles or so before continuing higher. I do not see us on our way back down to the lows that we have seen this past year. It just doesn't look like that historically (for the S&P) during a Democratic Party President. Most people don't realize but most of the gains in the market come during this current party's placement in office. History shows that when the Republican Party is in office the market either starts and closes in a similar spot or goes lower. By the way, I don't write history, I only read it so don't start yelling at me! Also, I am of neither political party so I have absolutely no Bias!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,803
  • Mar 24, 2010 6:50pm Mar 24, 2010 6:50pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Finally! I agree Amyc. S&P is Not rolling over just yet it's just topping (and this can take several candles). It will test that 1200 level! Daily candle suggests more gains according to historical candles as well.

I might also add that in the event that we do roll over on the S&P it is quite probable that it will only last for 10 candles or so before continuing higher. I do not see us on our way back down to the lows that we have seen this past year. It just doesn't look like that historically (for the S&P) during a Democratic Party President....
For me if the S&P bounces off 1200 then I see a fairly significant fall during April May June down to around 970. The S&P has certain patterns that it completes every year and if that one doesn't complete it will be the first time in 20 years it hasn't. After that I see it going to the moon again for the next few years.
  • #19,804
  • Mar 24, 2010 7:00pm Mar 24, 2010 7:00pm
Quoting amyc
For me if the S&P bounces off 1200 then I see a fairly significant fall during April May June down to around 970. The S&P has certain patterns that it completes every year and if that one doesn't complete it will be the first time in 20 years it hasn't. After that I see it going to the moon again for the next few years.
Interesting. I will not rule that possibility out only because I do fear what will occur when the Stimulus is pulled back and the Fed raises rates. Interesting time table as well because I would not expect such a pullback until the second half of the year.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,805
  • Mar 24, 2010 7:03pm Mar 24, 2010 7:03pm
I wait for E/U at 3440, and sell A/U then.
  • #19,806
  • Mar 24, 2010 7:05pm Mar 24, 2010 7:05pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Interesting. I will not rule that possibility out only because I do fear what will occur when the Stimulus is pulled back and the Fed raises rates. Interesting time table as well because I would not expect such a pullback until the second half of the year.
The timetable isn't necessarily accurate, it could be short and sharp or it could be long and drawn out and take 2 quarters, but at the moment I am thinking 2nd week in April is one to be watchful of if it is near 1200 then.
  • #19,807
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:41pm Mar 24, 2010 8:41pm
Saxon, do you know what the 50% fib retracement of this last pullback is?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,808
  • Mar 24, 2010 9:02pm Mar 24, 2010 9:02pm
Guess it is finally learning the a-b-c. Consolidation time. Will be busy today. So will leave scale up small batches sell orders up to 9130 with stops at 9170. Will check in later

Good luck to all of us, bulls or bears.
  • #19,809
  • Mar 24, 2010 9:19pm Mar 24, 2010 9:19pm
hopefully, LEI for Australia will be released tomorrow, hopefully it will aid the bulls
  • #19,810
  • Mar 24, 2010 9:34pm Mar 24, 2010 9:34pm
Quoting pipsbull
Some view on aussie:
I'm not a fan of head and shoulders, but it looks like aussie is trying to form one on 4hr. Needs a 4hr close below 4hr Neckline for a decent confirmation.
To spice things up, the DXY broke out of the bull flag, with a test. (The chart I've been posting last week).
Nice break out and succecfull test of the neckline. The DXY worked out as a charm. Congrats to those who get in this short...
  • #19,811
  • Edited 10:04pm Mar 24, 2010 9:51pm | Edited 10:04pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Saxon, do you know what the 50% fib retracement of this last pullback is?
Fibs reset to Feb 5th would make 50 at like 89145. If you are running fibs off Feb 25 it would set 50 @ like 90257
  • #19,812
  • Mar 24, 2010 9:54pm Mar 24, 2010 9:54pm
Saxon, where you required to take the series 34 test, retail off-exchange examination by the national futures assocation? If so, any advice?

Apparently its the series 3 or 32 as well.
Annoying Precision
  • #19,813
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:07pm Mar 24, 2010 10:07pm
Quoting erikte279
Saxon, where you required to take the series 34 test, retail off-exchange examination by the national futures assocation? If so, any advice?

Apparently its the series 3 or 32 as well.
Ya, I took it and the series 3 and 34. If you want to be a CPO (Commodity Pool Operator) or a CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) you will need to take both. Initially you will not have to take either as you would be able to operate under NFA exemptions, I think the are 4.13(a)(8), but not sure. You could get by without them until your pools exceed 400K or 15+ clients. Any client that is family I think doesn't require to be counted. Unsure though.
  • #19,814
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:07pm Mar 24, 2010 10:07pm
Quoting Saxon
Fibs reset to Feb 5th would make 50 at like 89145. If you are running fibs off Feb 25 it would set 50 @ like 90257
Sorry I should have been more specific. Just the pullback we saw today.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,815
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:10pm Mar 24, 2010 10:10pm
Quoting erikte279
Saxon, where you required to take the series 34 test, retail off-exchange examination by the national futures assocation? If so, any advice?

Apparently its the series 3 or 32 as well.
Also, don't buy any study materials as I can provide them to you if you like. Also, if anyone else wants them I can give them to you too. The series 34 will just be a review to all of you but it works as a good refresher. I attached the NFA outline for the series 3 and 34 exams so you know what me and erik are talking about.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf SO-Series3.pdf   41 KB | 341 downloads
File Type: pdf SO-Series34.pdf   38 KB | 568 downloads
  • #19,816
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:11pm Mar 24, 2010 10:11pm
Sorry to keep nagging but is this required even if you trade for someone elses fund? (I'm going to take them anyways).

Thanks


Quoting Saxon
Ya, I took it and the series 3 and 34. If you want to be a CPO (Commodity Pool Operator) or a CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) you will need to take both. Initially you will not have to take either as you would be able to operate under NFA exemptions, I think the are 4.13(a)(8), but not sure. You could get by without them until your pools exceed 400K or 15+ clients. Any client that is family I think doesn't require to be counted. Unsure though.
Annoying Precision
  • #19,817
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:14pm Mar 24, 2010 10:14pm
Saxon your the MAN! I definatley owe you and will compensate you for your kindness when I get the ball rolling.

Quoting Saxon
Also, don't buy any study materials as I can provide them to you if you like. Also, if anyone else wants them I can give them to you too. The series 34 will just be a review to all of you but it works as a good refresher. I attached the NFA outline for the series 3 and 34 exams so you know what me and erik are talking about.
Annoying Precision
  • #19,818
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:14pm Mar 24, 2010 10:14pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Sorry I should have been more specific. Just the pullback we saw today.
I think it was here, look in this post a few posts down http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...84#post3578584
I took it off my chart and scrubbed it so I don't know exactly
  • #19,819
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:16pm Mar 24, 2010 10:16pm
Quoting erikte279
Saxon your the MAN! I definatley owe you and will compensate you for your kindness when I get the ball rolling.
Ya, no problem. If you get interested in the exams, I will shoot you the answers to those study guides and can tell you exactly what you need to know for both exams so you will pass the first time. Series 3 is hard, but I can tell you the math problems you need to study and what not so you can focus on what you need to.
  • #19,820
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:23pm Mar 24, 2010 10:23pm
Quoting erikte279
Sorry to keep nagging but is this required even if you trade for someone elses fund? (I'm going to take them anyways).

Thanks
you're not nagging If you are trading someone else's funds, you will be required to be a CTA or CPO if you use a FCM (Futures Commission Merchant) in the US. If you use a UK or Swiss based FCM, they will usually relax the rules for you. It is worth getting if you want to be a Boutique HF. It costs about 700 or so a year once you make it as a CTA/CPO, which is just a $200 application to the NFA once you get the exams done. Once you are a CTA/CPO, the NFA has a lot of slicitation regulations but you will be able to have 400K+ pools. If you are in US and want to trade anyone else's funds, you will need to be a CTA/CPO. You will be what is called a MM (Money Manager) through your FCM. So let's say IBFX is your FCM, they will service all your accounts and provide them client statements and what not, you just have to trade and what not and they worry about client reporting and taxes. Which is nice. And you will get Killer Spreads and perks like rebates and what not. I can walk you through everything if you are interested. If you want to take the series 3 or 34 you will need to go to FINRAs website and fill out a U10 form I think. It costs around 100 for each test
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