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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #601
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:06am Mar 24, 2010 8:06am
Hi mate,

My entry is at 1.3390, 1.3350 & 1.3450 and I aim to close them at or close to 1.3450. Hard stop below 1.3285



Quoting shahab8b
hi mate,
what is you long entry on E/U? if I were you I would close them at S>R re-test around 1.3440-50(if we ever get there this week) , and switch to short, we broke a significant S ,the fall has just started
  • #602
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:09am Mar 24, 2010 8:09am
Quoting puks
Hi mate,

My entry is at 1.3390, 1.3350 & 1.3450 and I aim to close them at or close to 1.3450. Hard stop below 1.3285
ok, you need some luck , but hope you get all of them closed in green, it may retrace before it head lower again
  • #603
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:18am Mar 24, 2010 8:18am
Quoting shahab8b
ok, you need some luck , but hope you get all of them closed in green, it may retrace before it head lower again
A short covering rally "should" happen, sooner rather than later.

Imagine if they reach a consensus at tomorrow's meeting!! and my hard stop is at 1.3285.

history tell us when market is overly short, the short covering rally is likely to happen.
  • #604
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:19am Mar 24, 2010 8:19am
U/Chf update;
as expected, both short and long trades, precise to the target
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #605
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:21am Mar 24, 2010 8:21am
I am not in the best of health today so here is a rough chart..Please be careful....

Amend Stops to 1.3250 imho....

Good Day
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Let Price determine your future!
  • #606
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:22am Mar 24, 2010 8:22am
Quoting puks
A short covering rally "should" happen, sooner rather than later.

Imagine if they reach a consensus at tomorrow's meeting!! and my hard stop is at 1.3285.

history tell us when market is overly short, the short covering rally is likely to happen.
Puks they already decided to go to IMF for Greece issue ,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...IjLTtDC0&pos=1
  • #607
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:34am Mar 24, 2010 8:34am
Quoting Geppyg
I am not in the best of health today so here is a rough chart..Please be careful....

Amend Stops to 1.3250 imho....

Good Day
Thanks Geppyg. Shall do.
  • #608
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:36am Mar 24, 2010 8:36am
Quoting shahab8b
Puks they already decided to go to IMF for Greece issue ,
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...IjLTtDC0&pos=1
I know IMF will be involved but when any sort of consensus or aid is finalized the first reaction is always the relief rally. I've been hearing on CNBC that even IMF may not be able to assist Greece or infact ask them to leave the EZ.

Either way, when a solution is reached, the relief rally should start.
  • #609
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:47am Mar 24, 2010 8:47am
Doesn't look like we are going to get any bounce on A/U. But we've done 100 pips so far and it's on Daily S3. Needs to break 0.9090 and we should have some bloodshed. I'll set stops at 0.9085 and let the market do it's thing.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #610
  • Mar 24, 2010 9:53am Mar 24, 2010 9:53am
Quoting Patience
Yeah, I've read a lot of articles saying the same thing and they've been saying it for a long time now and that was before the extra stimulus package announced recently. You know how I said I like to have Jurik confirmation on at least my 1 hour chart before going against the trend (which I ended up ignoring last week on USD/CAD) and it dropped like a rock. Well this time USD/JPY is up on all timeframes on Jurik from 1 hour to monthly. What price are you targeting. Quick 30 pips or so?

I am glad I'm not the only one (out of the tons who are shorting) that took a long on the CAD. Not only did I take a long, but added to it, geez, talk about painful. My 4 hr and daily candles show some signs of bullish action although it may be short lived. I am in the clear after this morning except for one I plan to hang onto for a while longer.

I also noticed the daily and weekly candle on the AUD have turned bearish. I haven't had a trade on it in the past few days, but it sure looks like it is truning south for a while.
  • #611
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:22am Mar 24, 2010 10:22am
bloodshed begins on the aussie, nice call patience!!!

where should we look for a bottom of this move???
  • #612
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:35am Mar 24, 2010 10:35am
Here are my thoughts
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Let Price determine your future!
  • #613
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:39am Mar 24, 2010 10:39am
Could be more downside. Here is my daily chart.

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  • #614
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:41am Mar 24, 2010 10:41am
Quoting Geppyg
Here are my thoughts
the pound on monthly looks like a second wave down has started from 1.70, which could bring it down to 1.20 or something, but who knows.
  • #615
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:47am Mar 24, 2010 10:47am
Quoting kimd
Could be more downside. Here is my daily chart.

Attachment
when it was around .65-ish it ranged, in an up channel, but eventually broke up. the bottom of the down channel for a/u now is .84, so if it breaks below, could be in for a nice trend
  • #616
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:51am Mar 24, 2010 10:51am
Quoting Clouds
the pound on monthly looks like a second wave down has started from 1.70, which could bring it down to 1.20 or something, but who knows.
Hi Clouds,

I agree too more downside, even now as we have to get to 83.23 on dIx
But my targets for cable are clearly shown hope this makes sense..


Have a good day
Let Price determine your future!
  • #617
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:54am Mar 24, 2010 10:54am
Possibly, but ut seems on the daily the lower part of the channel is around 8920, weekly being 8500. And the monthly candles remain bullish so I don't see it going further, but anything is possible lately. The market has been moving a bit strangely.
  • #618
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:58am Mar 24, 2010 10:58am
Quoting kimd
Possibly, but ut seems on the daily the lower part of the channel is around 8920, weekly being 8500. And the monthly candles remain bullish so I don't see it going further, but anything is possible lately. The market has been moving a bit strangely.
yea, weekly- im not too concerned with the bullish monthly candles, because even during uptrend from 2006-2008 there were bearish monthly candles scattered throughout

Attached Image
  • #619
  • Mar 24, 2010 4:19pm Mar 24, 2010 4:19pm
finally what we have been waiting for due to COT index extreme and other technical signs happened ,
commodity currencies reversed the trend (at least in 4hr chart)
Head & Shoulders in A/U and inverse Head & Shoulders in U/Cad indicate such development,

as I've suggested since the beginning of this week

SHORT: E/U G/U A/U N/U
LONG U/Chf U/Cad
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #620
  • Mar 24, 2010 4:25pm Mar 24, 2010 4:25pm
Quoting Geppyg
Here are my thoughts
Hi Geppyg,
That's very kind of you posting your charts here. As always I envy your perfect charting skills.
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