Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

G'day Shahab - what threw me yesterday was the bounce in A/U and indices. I just wasn't expecting such a strong bounce and now PA is just hanging around my 34 EMA on 4 hour. Look at this reading. Even more extreme on U/CHF and sentiment is changing rapidly on the Loonie. I think traders are betting on the SNB intervening and the RBC not intervening.

SSI: Retail USDCAD Short Positioning Surges 74% on a Failed Run on 1.02
Tuesday, 23 Mar 2010 18:02 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.49 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.59 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.0% lower than yesterday and 18.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 72.9% higher than yesterday and 127.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 19.6% stronger than yesterday and 29.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.27 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.16 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 8.3% higher than yesterday and 28.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.8% lower than yesterday and 26.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.1% stronger than yesterday and 1.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.21 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.02 as 51% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 9.1% higher than yesterday and 27.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.0% lower than yesterday and 25.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.6% stronger than yesterday and 5.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.48 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.51 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 22.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.7% higher than yesterday and 18.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.4% stronger than yesterday and 9.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.05 as nearly 67% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.99 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.4% higher than yesterday and 3.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.4% lower than yesterday and 4.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.5% weaker than yesterday and 3.6% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 4.28 as nearly 81% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 3.69 as 79% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.3% higher than yesterday and 8.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.1% lower than yesterday and 8.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.2% stronger than yesterday and 37.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.53 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.67 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.0% higher than yesterday and 15.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.8% lower than yesterday and 0.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.5% weaker than yesterday and 4.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.16 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.07 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.5% higher than yesterday and 16.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 27.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 8.3% stronger than yesterday and 4.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

Gold: sell limit order at 1118

does anyone remember when I posted this few weeks ago,
that's what I really think long-term

I just wanted to pass my sincere notes of appreciation towards your continuous effort in trying to maintain consistency in posting all you trades day after day show that just in a matter of time you shall progress to a totally new phenomenal level of trading...you have really progressed to new heights in the last 4 months..

I was very surprised with your short at certain levels today which you took out at a loss as this was unlike you because without patience in this market..we will take hit after hit...just on a quick note....I was in similar trades on the euro and have now set them all to break even.

Well done and I wish you all the best in the near future

GeppyG

didn't take long for GU to come down and test it's 01' lows. Wonder if same will happen to EU.

hi Geppyg,
Thank you very much for your appreciation , I could have never been able to improve my trading skills without following other experience and highly knowledgeable traders like you ,patience ,DT and a few others.
today I was wrong on closing my E/U shorts as you mentioned , as soon as I closed them I realized it was a mistake , I was (and still I am) so bearish on E/U ,but I put the wrong SL ,which was very tight and at a wrong level.
I still need to learn trading psychology from you and how to stay calm when there is a red trade in my portfolio.

thank you again
kind regards
shahab

I think so because they are driven by dollar index.....

Woo hoo. Fitch downgrades Portugal and traders arrested in the UK for insider trading. Should get some risk aversion coming into the market that will hopefully knock those commodity currencies on the head. European indices slumping and US futures are red at the moment so it's looking good.

SSI: USDCHF Shorts Jump 17% as Retail Bears Fade 120+pip Rally
Wednesday, 24 Mar 2010 09:54 GMT
Written by Michael Wright, DailyFX Research

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:




Intraday Highlight:

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at 3.54 as nearly 78% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 4.21 as 81% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.7% lower than yesterday and 0.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 16.6% higher than yesterday and 8.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.8% stronger than yesterday and 38.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF losses.

SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.43 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.37 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.4% higher than yesterday and 22.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 0.5% higher than yesterday and 27.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.8% stronger than yesterday and 1.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.28 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.18 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.6% higher than yesterday and 34.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 20.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.8% stronger than yesterday and 5.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.17 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.45 as 59% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.2% lower than yesterday and 16.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.0% higher than yesterday and 1.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.5% weaker than yesterday and 6.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.56 as nearly 61% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.93 as 66% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 7.6% lower than yesterday and 4.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 14.0% higher than yesterday and 16.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.2% weaker than yesterday and 2.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.23 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.40 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.2% lower than yesterday and 16.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 12.1% higher than yesterday and 135.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.4% stronger than yesterday and 43.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.48 as nearly 60% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.58 as 61% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 26.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.6% lower than yesterday and 10.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.1% weaker than yesterday and 7.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.19 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.08 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.3% higher than yesterday and 15.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 3.1% lower than yesterday and 27.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.8% stronger than yesterday and 2.0% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

USDX 4 Hour + Daily

We've finally broken above the highs and I'm not going to argue with the daily chart.

Hi patience,

How are you doing? Its been a long time. How is your trading going on?

My view on hidden bearish divergence on USDX chart? USDX has created new highs but RSI hasn't. Is that correct?

Is a massive short covering rally on the cards in EUR and GBP as market is overly short?

BTW, I am long EU and aiming to TP at 1.3450-80 region sometime this week.

Hey Puks - I'm good, thanks and hope the same with you. Just nicking bits here and there. Closed my shorts way too early on EUR last night.

You are correct. We have classic bearish divergence with higher high on price but lower low on indicator but we need PA confirmation and with the mood the market is in, I'd say the US$ will continue to benefit from the risk aversion. Portugal's downgrade isn't going to help the EUR.

Check this web page out for divergence. They make it really easy to understand and I always refer to it when I get muddled (and I still do sometimes).

http://www.forexproject.com/technica...ivergence.html

Average weekly range for EUR for last 52 weeks is 308 pips. We've done 220 pips so far from high to low so there is the possibility that we could go lower this week.

Good trades to you

hi mate,
what is you long entry on E/U? if I were you I would close them at S>R re-test around 1.3440-50(if we ever get there this week) , and switch to short, we broke a significant S ,the fall has just started

Hey Shahab - interesting to see the Yen is finally capitulating even with risk aversion. Year end repatriation must be over.

finally

G'Day patience ,I read lots of article that fundamentally U/J should head higher,
but I'm still treat that pair with respect, even if we get higher than 93.80 that will be just a ABC correction in the downtrend ,for now USD is the one

btw, I just took a quick short at U/J at .9185 close to weekly R3

E/U sell limit order at 1.3415 & 1.3445 SL= 1.35 TP=1.30

Yeah, I've read a lot of articles saying the same thing and they've been saying it for a long time now and that was before the extra stimulus package announced recently. You know how I said I like to have Jurik confirmation on at least my 1 hour chart before going against the trend (which I ended up ignoring last week on USD/CAD) and it dropped like a rock. Well this time USD/JPY is up on all timeframes on Jurik from 1 hour to monthly. What price are you targeting. Quick 30 pips or so?

short U/J at 91.85 SL=92.25 TP 91.50

just 35 pips
the trend is up as you said
I think it's time to sell AUD heavily!!!
I noticed in last 2 weeks, before 9-10 am NY time, the A/U came down and then head north at 10 am and later- i wonder if the trend is gonna be broken today

A/U sell limit order

You think? I'm sick of trying to short that mother and having to wait for it and I'm long on A/J anyway - always long on A/J. That yield differential is too good to pass up.