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Simple & Consistent Fibbing Method

  • #621
  • Mar 23, 2010 9:26pm Mar 23, 2010 9:26pm
Quoting Earth2Pip
As trading continued the PA went lower but seems to have found support on the trendline of the lows making another higher low and heading up. If this trendline holds we should find more entries on the way up to our targets as it pulls back to the trendline. I am told that a third hit on a trendline is usually a good place to enter a trade. Good trading and good night.
Great analysis lets just hope we have the same setup around 3-4 EST

have a good nights sleep, see you in the morning
Raza
  • #622
  • Mar 23, 2010 9:30pm Mar 23, 2010 9:30pm
Quoting frankkn
the blue lines are the 0, 50, and 61.8 % retracements of last years low/high

if you walk your fib from the high in late november to each low to the left, the 50% breach works like a charm....

and here we are now, price has bounced each time it has retraced to the 50% but not very far

price at the bottom of its little channel what will happen next?
Your guess is as good as mine but imho it seems like a safe bet to be long here with stop below 1.3400 having said that if that is broken then we might see some very big positions liquidated and those big players would want to enter couple of 100 pips lower I presume.
Raza
  • #623
  • Edited 6:30am Mar 24, 2010 6:20am | Edited 6:30am
Great analysis Earth2Pip and Frankkn! Seems like we want to go long and test the top of that channel Freeasabird!

Great insight!
Hero Traders Live to see their Accounts Die!
  • #624
  • Mar 24, 2010 6:26am Mar 24, 2010 6:26am
Quoting simoneg
Great analysis Earth2Pip and Freeasabird! Seems like we want to go long and test the top of that channel Freeasabird!

Great insight!
Hi simoneg,
I believe it's not my analysis since i do not post anything here, just question I have post here. I'm still learning bobokus ....
  • #625
  • Mar 24, 2010 6:31am Mar 24, 2010 6:31am
Quoting freeasabird
Hi simoneg,
I believe it's not my analysis since i do not post anything here, just question I have post here. I'm still learning bobokus ....
ooops thanks for that! made the correction!
Hero Traders Live to see their Accounts Die!
  • #626
  • Mar 24, 2010 9:03am Mar 24, 2010 9:03am
i feel like i am coming closer to an understanding of this way of looking at price action. there are so many different viewpoints from which a trader can perceive the market, and this one really resonates with me.

each time i check out a chart i can see this method at work just a little more than i did before.

please comment on this picture. with a yellow box, i marked midnight to 3 am EST, then fibbed from high to low to find bull/bear targets. i highlighted the bear target in paint so thats why its opaque.

i am having a hard time seeing where to put my fib for the breaches... what is a good way of looking at that? do we only look for breaches of swings of the last trend-- like if price has been dropping for a long time, we fib from the potential low to the most recent swing low for the breach level?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wed.jpg Size: 50 KB
  • #627
  • Mar 24, 2010 10:18am Mar 24, 2010 10:18am
Hi Frankkn,

I will respond to your questions later today. I am working on a Video to better answer some of your questions and the questions of others.

Simoneg
Hero Traders Live to see their Accounts Die!
  • #628
  • Mar 24, 2010 11:50am Mar 24, 2010 11:50am
Quoting simoneg
Hi Frankkn,

I will respond to your questions later today. I am working on a Video to better answer some of your questions and the questions of others.

Simoneg
i'm stoked!
  • #629
  • Mar 24, 2010 12:16pm Mar 24, 2010 12:16pm
Simoneg,
Great use of fibs and SR in a simple, disciplined approach to trading. Perhaps you can give me some guidance. I work during the day and therefore cannot trade intraday. From reading your pdf and some of the bobokus thread, it appears that this can work at that time frame as well.

My questions,
Once I achieve good working knowledge of the method through demo trading coupled with disciplined money management (2% equity per trade), do you think it possible to earn at least 5% return on equity per week?

Is it reasonable to project that earning on average 5% per week, through the power of compounding, could grow $1k to $100k plus in 2 or 3 years?

Thanks for sharing. I hope that though giving, you receive the most.
John
  • #630
  • Mar 24, 2010 12:35pm Mar 24, 2010 12:35pm
Hello Simoneg,

I was trying to trade according to your style.

Can you give some comments wheter I see it in the right way? Especially regarding to choose the right high and lows.

My Chart time: GMT +2
Furthermore I mark the London open time.

L1, H1 = Low and high during the 3 h start Period, for creating the first fib (red).
B1= 50% Breachlevel
Actual points: L1,H1,B1=(1.4955; 1.4982; 1.4978)


First trade: T1
Bar close below B1. Take short at B1 at 9:15 candle. Got stopped out at the same bar (stop loss level 61.8%).

Loss: 6 pips.

Then it close above B1. But could not get a retrace entry and it goes after the London open to a new high without me and touches the first profit level.

I take this high as a new one (H2) and don’t change L1. So L2=L1. See orange fibs. Reasons for new H2. H1 was broken and a pullback to 19.1% after first profit level was reached.

But just a question. Is it right to choose the new H2 as new High or should one use an older previous H. For example H2?1 or H2?2 ?

Actual points: L2,H2,B2=(1.4955; 1.5018; 1.4986)


Second trade: T2
Take retrace to B2 at 11:00. Touches the first profit level. Close position.

Win: 50 pips

I choose a new L and a new H.
Actual points: L3,H3,B3=(1.4955; 1.4935; 1.4963); green Fibs
The new H3 is a minor H on my opinion.
Or should I had to stay with the old H2? (seen as H3?1 on chart).
By choosing the new H3 it gives an entry at B3 ( 50% Level). If I stayed with H2=H3?1) then there would have been only an entry by retracement at 38.2%.


Third trade: T3
Take retrace at 13:00. Touches first and second profit level. Close position at the first profit level.

Win: 47 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_1.jpg Size: 156 KB
  • #631
  • Mar 24, 2010 1:36pm Mar 24, 2010 1:36pm
Quoting john3344
Simoneg,
Great use of fibs and SR in a simple, disciplined approach to trading....
Thank you john3344,

Yes you can work from any time frame. I just found a time frame that suits both my time and risk level.

You may want to look at trading weekly fibs on H2 or H4 charts along with the 50% fib based on your time.

Where the Money Management aspect is concerned, 2% per trade is not bad although I recommend a little lower. 5% per week is more than possible, it all depends on the discipline of the trader and his/her ability to manage the emotions.
If you can manage the emotion of greed, associated with that long term compounding plan that would be good. Either way you can do a lot with your $1000 account. But its good to pull some periodically as your account grows.

Thanks for your well wishes! Take it one day at a time and you will achieve your goals!
Hero Traders Live to see their Accounts Die!
  • #632
  • Mar 24, 2010 2:56pm Mar 24, 2010 2:56pm
I had wondered about fractals since they were mentioned in the thread somewhere but no one ever seemed to talk about them very much. Today I asked Aswilled about them and he gave a pretty descent explanation. I started using them and wow what a difference. I startedfibbing from the last low to the last high fractal and it tells the story very well and helped me with my entries and exits. I used the trendline of the 15 minute chart combined with the fractals and currently am on my 6th productive trade. Some were only a couple of pips but I didn't lose any. Can anyone add more knowledge about fractals?
  • #633
  • Mar 24, 2010 3:03pm Mar 24, 2010 3:03pm
Quoting Earth2Pip
I had wondered about fractals since they were mentioned in the thread somewhere but no one ever seemed to talk about them very much. Today I asked Aswilled about them and he gave a pretty descent explanation. I started using them and wow what a difference. I startedfibbing from the last low to the last high fractal and it tells the story very well and helped me with my entries and exits. I used the trendline of the 15 minute chart combined with the fractals and currently am on my 6th productive trade. Some were only a couple of pips but I didn't...
Glad to hear that Earth2Pip! I had actually specified in the PDF that the fractals is one of the tools used and that I use them to easily identify highs and lows. Did want to do too much with them as I wasnt sure how many platforms facilitate fractals. Nevertheless, I will add a little more meat on it.

Good trading!
Hero Traders Live to see their Accounts Die!
  • #634
  • Mar 24, 2010 7:14pm Mar 24, 2010 7:14pm
Quoting john3344
Simoneg,
Great use of fibs and SR in a simple, disciplined approach to trading. Perhaps you can give me some guidance. I work during the day and therefore cannot trade intraday. From reading your pdf and some of the bobokus thread, it appears that this can work at that time frame as well.

My questions,
Once I achieve good working knowledge of the method through demo trading coupled with disciplined money management (2% equity per trade), do you think it possible to earn at least 5% return on equity per week?

Is it reasonable to project that...
Good day Friend {3344;3580957}

Rarely do I jump from behind the curtains with this alacrity. But in your comments I seem reflections of me that brought pain and suffering, a couple times. Never heeded the experience of those who were hurt before.

Pleeaassee, do not press your face too close to the vault’s glass window, thereby focusing on the MONEY. Take care of the pips, pretend they are little trophies, the more you get the better off you will be. Take that as a given regardless of the methodology. It has been proven over and again… focus on the money and lose it. Focus on the pip-capture and the money finds you eventually.

Education, Knowledge, Patience and ultimately, trading indifferently, with a view to never consciously lose money, will meet all your goals(in time). No one can say how much you will lose or make in a period, but your loss is always limited to your current account balance, provided you are prepared to discount the psychology{pain} of such losses.

Someone once sai: and it is a learning favourite of mine, hope it will be yours... Forget your wins Quickly! Forget your losses even Quicker.

Help me not to rush, making mistake of my own, others have made enough for us all to learn from. Hope you learned from mine.

Bless!
  • #635
  • Mar 24, 2010 9:39pm Mar 24, 2010 9:39pm
Pathumracled,

Thanks so much for your sage advise. Coincidentally, I was reading about Rob Booker's trading success in 'Millionaire Traders' by Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg. His weekly goal is 50 to 100 pips and he says that focusing on money makes you think about how much the market needs to give to you and how much you must make from the market. So, your point is well taken.

With that being said, I should begin to think of my goal in terms of pips not dollars. I could use some advice on what might be a reasonable starting goal. I trade 4 hour and daily charts. And, I want to use the Simple Fib method. Once I have spent many hours of study to really learn and practice, I need a goal of number of pips per week.

Your suggestions are appreciated.
Regards,
John
  • #636
  • Mar 25, 2010 12:00am Mar 25, 2010 12:00am
Quoting Earth2Pip
I had wondered about fractals since they were mentioned in the thread somewhere but no one ever seemed to talk about them very much. Today I asked Aswilled about them and he gave a pretty descent explanation. I started using them and wow what a difference. I startedfibbing from the last low to the last high fractal and it tells the story very well and helped me with my entries and exits. I used the trendline of the 15 minute chart combined with the fractals and currently am on my 6th productive trade. Some were only a couple of pips but I didn't...
Nah ... I'm not yet done read Bobokus thread, know fractal, can u point where is it the thread is earth ? Tq ... so much to read and learn, I hope this will lead me to be like u all the master, tq very much.
  • #637
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:00am Mar 25, 2010 1:00am
you can find a link to Bobokus in the very first page of this thread. It is very helpful.
  • #638
  • Mar 25, 2010 4:26am Mar 25, 2010 4:26am
Quoting john3344
Pathumracled,

Thanks so much for your sage advise. Coincidentally, I was reading about Rob Booker's trading success in 'Millionaire Traders' by Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg. His weekly goal is 50 to 100 pips and he says that focusing on money makes you think about how much the market needs to give to you and how much you must make from the market. So, your point is well taken.

With that being said, I should begin to think of my goal in terms of pips not dollars. I could use some advice on what might be a reasonable starting goal. I trade...
Good day All; john3344
the advice is of the market, fiend. If you listen with your eyes firstly, and mind lastly, rarely with the heart, then we can begin the journey. It is difficult to trade only what we have seen, considering that the dance has to be between our expectations and the probability of making the right choice of three based on what is, up to the to the right edge of the screen.

Based on some observations of mine, and others, the previous daily range is a good guide to what may be on offer for the current day and how far we are in the current day, tempered with the volatility of the previous day. A large range often is followed by a day or two, of lower volume & volatility, hence smaller range and potential to harvest pips Sometimes the converse is true but there is danger in trying to pigeon-hole the market.

A target of 25% of the previous days range is reasonable for a conservative, many times bitten trader as myself. It may be different for other. Remember it is one thing looking back at yesterday and saying, WOW! Look how much was on offer.

But, being in is another thing, remember we can go up down or oscillate, or any combination within a given day, so though the range from day's high to low that can be deceptive, in that, not all of it could be safely harvested, not knowing what will unfold next.

The various tools will just increase our chances that's all, having decided how much we are willing to lose to get hat potential. So the reward (target) to Risk(potential/accepted loss level) has to be weighed and on average, for the conservatives, 1.0 to 1.5 has been a good ROT. The Blessing is in the level of discipline with which we can execute, then patiently wait, knowing that we will be right sometimes.


It would be nice though even for our method here to be able to say the potential range was 100 Pips yesterday, but the best of us converted 50% of that to profit, the worse converted 20% so we had for instance a conversion ratio for the method of 35%. If over time we can graph this then you may have a better answer to your question john3344. Perhaps this is a point to consider for the family here, developing a Conversion Index so to speak. To the rest of the family here, your thoughts on the "Conversion Ratio/Index" please

Bless!

  • #639
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:43am Mar 25, 2010 8:43am
Good Morning Traders,

What a great week it has been! Each week more and more is being learnt and I am thankful to God for that.

Pathumracled - regarding the ratio. One of the strengths of the trading entries on the 50% is that it allows you to multiply the pips in a move since no one really gets 100% of the move. So a 100 pip move with two or 3 entries can give you more than 100 pips for example.

Video - I have been busy working on some videos and will be uploading one today. I will post the others over the weekend, and as usual welcome your feedback.

Have a Great Trading Day all!

Simoneg
Hero Traders Live to see their Accounts Die!
  • #640
  • Mar 25, 2010 8:59am Mar 25, 2010 8:59am
I'll be looking for it.
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