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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,101
  • Mar 22, 2010 6:10pm Mar 22, 2010 6:10pm
Quoting xeneric
Great trade Raymond. Where did u enter and exit and why ?
His chart is showing a 2 bar reversal on the ltl. Nice trade!
  • #22,102
  • Mar 22, 2010 6:13pm Mar 22, 2010 6:13pm
Yes, Morelands, thank you for posting your chart and (hopefully) more info about your trade. I use NY close candles (FXDD.com, GMT+3), and the 20:00 4H candle closed above the 89 SMA after that nice belt holding candle. Looks like a good long to the upper channel line. RB signal was several candles ago, but is probably still valid. I'd love to hear from others on whether they see anything wrong with this (other than it being counter trend), and whether I should perhaps wait for a close above the 21 EMA.

It also may be best to wait to see what happens in the first hour of the London session. Any thoughts on the timing of such a trade, i.e., whether now until the London session is just typically too low volume to attempt a CT trade?
  • #22,103
  • Mar 22, 2010 8:18pm Mar 22, 2010 8:18pm
Xeneric,
My entry was a little different from what I stated, but the idea was the same. Without going into detail, at work my 4 hr charts are on a different GMT time for the 4 hr and I don't have a MACD. I did it off the 15 min chart noted abov, but I always have an idea/charts in my head before I leave for work. On the 15 min chart below, I wanted price to close beyond the blue rectangle b/c price on the left hand side of the chart found resistance there. Once price broke that resistance area I waited for a small pull back. As you can see, once price got beyond that point, it took off. I closed at the second arrow b/c it was towards the end of the day, price seemed to have stalled. The bar before the arrow indicated higher prices, but that did not happen, so I closed. Additionally, when price is in a consolidation period price can turn around quickly compared to when you are in 3rd wave or in a trending market. So I took my profits at that point. I hope that helps. By the way, your comments/trades are always appreciated. Here's hoping you make some good pips
Raymond
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  • #22,104
  • Mar 22, 2010 8:25pm Mar 22, 2010 8:25pm
Quoting pixel8tor
Yes, Morelands, thank you for posting your chart and (hopefully) more info about your trade. I use NY close candles (FXDD.com, GMT+3), and the 20:00 4H candle closed above the 89 SMA after that nice belt holding candle. Looks like a good long to the upper channel line. RB signal was several candles ago, but is probably still valid. I'd love to hear from others on whether they see anything wrong with this (other than it being counter trend), and whether I should perhaps wait for a close above the 21 EMA.

It also may be best to wait to see what...
DO NOT trade according to MA when in a consolidation period. 1st you must determine the bounderies of the consolidation period and only trade around the bounderies, not the MA's. Ira's posts, beginning with 22054 give a great explaination of how to trade in a trending market, a consolidation period, and for a break out trade. I hope this helps.
Raymond
  • #22,105
  • Edited Mar 23, 2010 2:18am Mar 22, 2010 9:37pm | Edited Mar 23, 2010 2:18am
Quoting Morelands
Xeneric,
My entry was a little different from what I stated, but the idea was the same. Without going into detail, at work my 4 hr charts are on a different GMT time for the 4 hr and I don't have a MACD. I did it off the 15 min chart noted abov, but I always have an idea/charts in my head before I leave for work. On the 15 min chart below, I wanted price to close beyond the blue rectangle b/c price on the left hand side of the chart found resistance there. Once price broke that resistance area I waited for a small pull back. As you can see, once...
Thanks for taking time to explain Raymond. I always appreciate your explanations.
  • #22,106
  • Mar 23, 2010 1:33am Mar 23, 2010 1:33am
Quoting Morelands
Xeneric,
My entry was a little different from what I stated, but the idea was the same....
Well done Raymond...
  • #22,107
  • Mar 23, 2010 2:30am Mar 23, 2010 2:30am
Quoting Morelands
I took a trade today, long the GBP. On the 4 hr chart price is in a channel/consolidation period.
Nice , first you said you are looking for short, and I thought about this line, but you acted upon the situation and took long. Well done!

That shows that we must always be flexible.
  • #22,108
  • Mar 23, 2010 7:55am Mar 23, 2010 7:55am
Quoting Morelands
I took a trade today, long the GBP. On the 4 hr chart price is in a channel/consolidation period. During these periods you can look for price to either break though the support line or for the support line to hold. In this case the support line held and the MACD shows a round bottom. I did not enter at that exact price, but it was around there. I'm out of the trade now, but price may go all the way up to the top of the channel.
It looks like we have a smooth, short TC at the moment. Can you consider your trade a pullback/CT trade now ? Should we wait and see what happens around 1.4940 to consider for a down move ?

Thx,
Andy
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  • #22,109
  • Mar 23, 2010 8:52am Mar 23, 2010 8:52am
Quoting andy1969
It looks like we have a smooth, short TC at the moment. Can you consider your trade a pullback/CT trade now ? Should we wait and see what happens around 1.4940 to consider for a down move ?

Thx,
Andy
Hey Andy,
You use the word TC and CT like we are in a trending market. TC as you know stands for Trend Continuation. We are not in a trending market, so those signals are not valid. We are in a consolidation period. When we are in a consolidation period, I don't base my trades on the MA's and TC signals. If you want a good lesson on figuring out what kind of market we are in go to YouTube and look up Sion Smith videos. Look for lesson #4 titled Market Rhythem and Momentum. My bounderies on the EU are b/t the 50% and the 61.8% retracement levels. I will only trade around those levels. Either the consolidation period will continue or it will break out.
I hope this helps
Raymond
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  • #22,110
  • Mar 23, 2010 9:44am Mar 23, 2010 9:44am
Quoting Morelands
Hey Andy,
You use the word TC and CT like we are in a trending market....
Yes, now I see. I often have problem to put all my "knowledge" together, always leaving something crucial out. Can I suggest myself also to read again the excellent post by Ira few days ago ? :-)
All this stuff It's quite easy to understand but can be a very hard discipline.

Thx
Cheers,
Andy
  • #22,111
  • Mar 23, 2010 11:58am Mar 23, 2010 11:58am
Hi everyone,

took a long on GBP/USD earlier this afternoon- a couple of factors weighed in the equation for me:

1) price position- resting on the lower trend line on the 4 hour
2) doji on the 1 hour
3) round bottom on the 1 hour

I dropped down from the 4 hour to the 1 hour and got in at 1.50200. 50 pips banked, stop moved to break even. Price has hit the 21 EMA and my stop just rests under the 8 EMA for the remainder of the position which looks likely to be taken out.

Mark
  • #22,112
  • Mar 23, 2010 7:42pm Mar 23, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting mark r
Hi everyone,

took a long on GBP/USD earlier this afternoon- a couple of factors weighed in the equation for me:

1) price position- resting on the lower trend line on the 4 hour
2) doji on the 1 hour
3) round bottom on the 1 hour

I dropped down from the 4 hour to the 1 hour and got in at 1.50200. 50 pips banked, stop moved to break even. Price has hit the 21 EMA and my stop just rests under the 8 EMA for the remainder of the position which looks likely to be taken out.

Mark
Hi Mark,
Welcome to the thread.
Looks like there is a lot of strong support at that 1.5000 - 1.5050 level. Phil made a trade there, Raymond made a trade there and you made a trade there. Well done.
  • #22,113
  • Mar 24, 2010 7:05am Mar 24, 2010 7:05am
USDJPY might be finally breaking out of its range, EURUSD falling fast too...

Scalping project update:

Since March 10:

46 wins and 9 losses. Might sound good but even a 2 or 3 pip target needs room to breathe so after all of this I'm looking at about even right now. The losses come in when the trend turns around or more appropriately, a pullback within the trend, and there is now way to know when this is happening or is starting until it 'does'. So, instead of re-entering a move I may just take the initial move in the opposite direction but only take one entry in that direction with no re-entries. I know this has nothing to do with this thread, just passing along the update to all my friends here.

Back 'here' soon....
  • #22,114
  • Mar 24, 2010 12:25pm Mar 24, 2010 12:25pm
Quoting Palmer
USDJPY might be finally breaking out of its range, EURUSD falling fast too...
Hope you took the break on USD/JPY, it was huge!
  • #22,115
  • Mar 24, 2010 7:09pm Mar 24, 2010 7:09pm
Here is the trade I did last night on the EUR/USD. Price was in the consolidation period and broke out last night. I treated it like a break out trade that Ira went over a few posts ago. The 1st chart is the 4 hr chart and show the consolidation period b/t the 50% and the 61% retracements. The second chart is the 1 hr. The 1st arrow shows where I entered, the second arrows shows where I exited 1/2, and the 3rd arrow shows where I exited the second 1/2. There is one thing I would like to share. I had no solid exit strategy other than how the candles were forming. I had a # of ideas, but I need to do some studying and see where the candle go. It sounds really bad that I did not have a solid exit stategy, but it is the truth and part of learning. On the flip side, it really annoys me when I feel like I may have left pips on the table. Anyways that is it
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  • #22,116
  • Mar 24, 2010 8:21pm Mar 24, 2010 8:21pm
There is now good angle and separation b/t the moving average. It looks like a trending market, so TC's and trades off of the MA are the way to trade, completely different stategy compared to a consolidation period.
Raymond
  • #22,117
  • Mar 25, 2010 1:34am Mar 25, 2010 1:34am
Quoting Morelands
Here is the trade I did last night on the EUR/USD. Price was in the consolidation period and broke out last night.....
Good trade, Raymond! I saw that too, but waited for price to test the broken trendline again and it didn't. That's a mistake I often make. I have to be more dary and take the odds just caring about placing my stoploss above the trendline.
On strong moves sometimes I have the same problem on finding an exit strategy. I usually put my stoploss at break even and apply the SionSmith 5min bar rule (last three candles..do you remember it?) on the 1H bars or even half an hour bars. Or I look for reversal patterns such as MACD Head and shoulders, etc.
Cheers
  • #22,118
  • Mar 25, 2010 3:04am Mar 25, 2010 3:04am
The reason why I did not took this mornings trade was the fact that it broke a trendline and pulled back to it. Otherwise all indicates a good trade long. If you are in the trade just watch for a downmove from the breakout TL. Secur breakeven if you can.

Edit
Looks like a long trade had the more weight. Breakeven is the worst scenario as the price moved past +30pips.
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  • #22,119
  • Mar 25, 2010 3:26am Mar 25, 2010 3:26am
Quoting Morelands
Here is the trade I did last night on the EUR/USD.
Very good trade Raymond, too bad I was sleeping or I would be with you on this one .

It is always a problem to exit in a trading market, you never know where the price might go. I tend to put my stop too close to the price, it often closes me and then goes to the initial direction. But I never feel bad about that, because it is not a loss!
  • #22,120
  • Mar 25, 2010 5:43am Mar 25, 2010 5:43am
Hi, i want to thanks everyone in this thread for the wonderful lesson taught in here especially phillip who generously taught us a wonderful trading system for free. This thread really change my way of trading and give me a lot of lesson compare to any other book or trading system i learn so far.

Here now i want to post my trade here in hope that you guys can help me point where i might be wrong about my trade with this system.

SELL USD/CHF at 1.0704
TP at 1.0661
SL 1.0745
Reason : RT that performing on my trendline and 200 SMA, price just break 89 SMA and not retrade to 21 EMA yet, a long tail in circle area.

Any comment for this trade ?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1269513362
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