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AUD/USD

  • #19,501
  • Mar 22, 2010 11:42pm Mar 22, 2010 11:42pm
I have never used Fibonacci. I used to think, and maybe still do, think it nothing more than looking at an ink blot.

A musician friend of mine stayed the weekend with us. That dude (non-trader) knew more about Fibonacci than anyone I knew.

I am going to give it shot and then maybe 6 months or so by now I might use it as my main indicator.
  • #19,502
  • Mar 23, 2010 12:38am Mar 23, 2010 12:38am
okay, now the time to post my research results.....

do u guys remember someone here says:

- if the new week opens above the pivot, it will goes to the last week high.
- if the new week opens below the pivot, it will goes to the last week low
- if the new month opens above the pivot, it will goes to the last month high.
- if the new month opens below the pivot, it will goes to the last month low


here are the results of the statistic from sept 1999 to current week.

-for weekly, it got 76.41% success rate
-for weekly that miss target by less than 10 pips, it got success rate of 81.85%
-for monthly, it got 76.19%

conclusion: not high enough success percentage rate
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls AUDUSD10080.xls   268 KB | 237 downloads
  • #19,503
  • Mar 23, 2010 12:45am Mar 23, 2010 12:45am
Quoting john123x
okay, now the time to post my research results.....

do u guys remember someone here says:

- if the new week opens above the pivot, it will goes to the last week high.
- if the new week opens below the pivot, it will goes to the last week low
- if the new month opens above the pivot, it will goes to the last month high.
- if the new month opens below the pivot, it will goes to the last month low


here are the results of the statistic from sept 1999 to current week.

-for weekly, it got 76.41% success rate
-for weekly that miss target by less...
I use something similar to that but I use the current week high/low not previous week. has a much higher success rate approx 95% for au
  • #19,504
  • Mar 23, 2010 12:47am Mar 23, 2010 12:47am
Quoting amyc
I use something similar to that but I use the current week high/low not previous week. has a much higher success rate approx 95% for au
i got a question,i dont understand ur statement. if the new week newly open (start trading), it shouldnt able to have any high or low yet....

next research, maybe a weighted(or average) first 3 hours weekly calculated open, coz i do think its kinda a big bias for the week's movement to depend on the first hour of the week only
  • #19,505
  • Mar 23, 2010 12:50am Mar 23, 2010 12:50am
Quoting amyc
I use something similar to that but I use the current week high/low not previous week. has a much higher success rate approx 95% for au
How can you know current week high/low before week has ended?
  • #19,506
  • Mar 23, 2010 12:59am Mar 23, 2010 12:59am
Quoting doblece
How can you know current week high/low before week has ended?
Current week high/low as projected, i use a calculation that provides a number similar to R1/S1.
  • #19,507
  • Mar 23, 2010 1:04am Mar 23, 2010 1:04am
Quoting amyc
Current week high/low as projected, i use a calculation that provides a number similar to R1/S1.
great idea, i immediately research it out.. thx, i didnt thought of that pivot point yet
  • #19,508
  • Mar 23, 2010 1:42am Mar 23, 2010 1:42am
Balance sell order 9190 not done yet. Amend to oco 9147 stop . Still looking for test of yesterday's lows.
  • #19,509
  • Mar 23, 2010 1:57am Mar 23, 2010 1:57am
Quoting john123x
okay, now the time to post my research results.....

do u guys remember someone here says:

- if the new week opens above the pivot, it will goes to the last week high.
- if the new week opens below the pivot, it will goes to the last week low
- if the new month opens above the pivot, it will goes to the last month high.
- if the new month opens below the pivot, it will goes to the last month low


here are the results of the statistic from sept 1999 to current week.

-for weekly, it got 76.41% success rate
-for weekly that miss target by...
Excellent, I love it.
  • #19,510
  • Mar 23, 2010 2:00am Mar 23, 2010 2:00am
Quoting amyc
Current week high/low as projected, i use a calculation that provides a number similar to R1/S1.
Ah ok. There is/was a system named "80/20 Weekly setup", might be something similar? Thanks!

Edit: found the thread:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=66776
  • #19,511
  • Mar 23, 2010 2:06am Mar 23, 2010 2:06am
HI all,
anybody short here?
This is my chart for the longer term..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CropperCapture[60].jpg Size: 75 KB
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #19,512
  • Mar 23, 2010 2:12am Mar 23, 2010 2:12am
Quoting tradoholic
HI all,
anybody short here?
This is my chart for the longer term..
Blurbear is.

Blur blur trying short looking for break of the big rising wedge support around 9075. Eyeing possibility of 8820-30 or lower if that support breaks.

Will add shorts progressively if it shows any signs of playing out.
  • #19,513
  • Mar 23, 2010 2:42am Mar 23, 2010 2:42am
Quoting blurbear
Balance sell order 9190 not done yet. Amend to oco 9147 stop . Still looking for test of yesterday's lows.
Triggered. Place protective stops 9195. Cover short leave open for time being.
  • #19,514
  • Mar 23, 2010 3:04am Mar 23, 2010 3:04am
Quoting tradoholic
HI all,
anybody short here?
Nope. I am Long @0.91557
  • #19,515
  • Mar 23, 2010 3:25am Mar 23, 2010 3:25am
I've been short since Friday, but starting to have second thoughts after yesterday's surge north.
  • #19,516
  • Mar 23, 2010 3:47am Mar 23, 2010 3:47am
Interesting position that we are in right now. However, my sentiment is Bearish due to the current price position on the upper TF's in relation to the MA's.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,517
  • Mar 23, 2010 3:52am Mar 23, 2010 3:52am
I'm Bearish but I'm also tired, been watching this boring PA all day, time for some sleep. Good luck on your trades guys/girls.
  • #19,518
  • Mar 23, 2010 3:57am Mar 23, 2010 3:57am
Quoting Saxon
I'm Bearish but I'm also tired, been watching this boring PA all day, time for some sleep. Good luck on your trades guys/girls.
Oh ya, all this boring PA gave me time to play my guitarrrrrr. Brushed up on my Bryan Adams, I know all you youngsters probably hate him, haha. Can play this one perfectly now, thanks boring PA. Gnight

Inserted Video

Make a note of the studio he's in
  • #19,519
  • Mar 23, 2010 3:57am Mar 23, 2010 3:57am
Quoting Saxon
I'm Bearish but I'm also tired, been watching this boring PA all day, time for some sleep. Good luck on your trades guys/girls.
We'll see you later!

I might add to my post above...50 percent retracement from the previous rally will put us at 913x which might complete C of an ABCD bullish pattern. Just being cautious.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #19,520
  • Mar 23, 2010 4:39am Mar 23, 2010 4:39am
I'm attaching the Daily timeframe chart showing why I think we hit the swing high a few days ago and why therefore the price has nowhere to go but down. The sequence of lower highs and lower lows also reinforces my bearish attitude.

However, yesterday's sharp USD moves rather made me doubt my original judgement. I'm still keeping my position open, but am open to be persuaded...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD-D.JPG Size: 105 KB
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