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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #1,021
  • Mar 22, 2010 3:55am Mar 22, 2010 3:55am
Quoting MartinFx
I still like to see a fundamental analysis from Darkstar which underpin his forecast about strong US economy later this year.
I am afraid a simple fundamental analysis in terms of "what economy is stronger" barely explain any moves in the forex market these days. In fact, if you look at the EURUSD chart of the last 15 years and compare witht the economic performance of the US and the Euro zone, you won't find much of a correlation.

It's always about the dominant theme at the time. Since the start of the financial crisis, risk appetite/aversion was the name of the game. Bad economic news pushed the dollar higher (risk aversion increases) and viceversa with good economic news. In fact, even good economic news from the US tended to hurt the dollar.

By the end of 2009 this seemed to end for the most part and now the new theme has become the fiscal woes in the Euro area and the whole Greece situation. This has esentially shaped the EURUSD trade for months and will likely continue to do so unless a definitive response, either by the EU, the IMF or both is given to the situation.

When this is done we'll move to the next one, which IMO will likely be related to interest rate hikes expectations as inflationary pressures will start to appear sooner or later.
  • #1,022
  • Mar 22, 2010 3:58am Mar 22, 2010 3:58am
Quoting BabeFX
Hi MartinFX,

Most economies appear to be in the mire.

I have just extracted this from FT

Lipsky warns advanced economies face ‘acute’ debt challenge...
Stagflation is coming. It's coded into the system, quite predictable by both sentiment analysis, historical data and fundamentals.
  • #1,023
  • Mar 22, 2010 7:34am Mar 22, 2010 7:34am
Scotty,

It appears from your posts you are learning a lot. My question is, has your bottom line actually gone up though.
  • #1,024
  • Mar 22, 2010 7:43am Mar 22, 2010 7:43am
Quoting spekkiefx
Scotty,

It appears from your posts you are learning a lot. My question is, has your bottom line actually gone up though.
It would imagine that it can take some time to apply the stuff Scotty (and others, myself included) are learning here into a profitable trading strategy.

The implication is that if you are not making profits right away that you are going down the wrong path, which doesn't not allows hold true.

Chatzi
  • #1,025
  • Mar 22, 2010 7:47am Mar 22, 2010 7:47am
Quoting chatzi
It would imagine that it can take some time to apply the stuff Scotty (and others, myself included) are learning here into a profitable trading strategy.

The implication is that if you are not making profits right away that you are going down the wrong path, which doesn't not allows hold true.

Chatzi
Chatzi,

The reason I am asking is because scotty's posts have gone from "I can't do it" to "I know how to do it". I find it hard to believe this is the case. If his bottom line has gone up , fair enough, otherwise the reader should be carefull
  • #1,026
  • Mar 22, 2010 7:48am Mar 22, 2010 7:48am
Quoting spekkiefx
Scotty,
It appears from your posts you are learning a lot. My question is, has your bottom line actually gone up though.
Scotty's (or anyone's) bottomline is entirely immaterial.
only your bottomline should matter to you.

just my view
  • #1,027
  • Mar 22, 2010 8:01am Mar 22, 2010 8:01am
Quoting spekkiefx
...
The reason I am asking is because scotty's posts have gone from "I can't do it" to "I know how to do it". I find it hard to believe this is the case. If his bottom line has gone up , fair enough, otherwise the reader should be carefull
fair enough, we should be all careful.

can u please direct us to his posts pertaining to your above conclusion/accusation?
i have not read all of his posts, but i never felt/thought that way. from what i know, he has researched way prior his opening of this thread. so what may seem to YOU as abrupt change is actually a much slower development.

i checked your recent posts... please correct me if im wrong, u seem to have a preponderance for negativity.
if u feel this thread has no purpose or use for YOU, then i dont see any reason why u should stay here & mingle.

Good luck
  • #1,028
  • Mar 22, 2010 8:10am Mar 22, 2010 8:10am
Quoting supremeChaos
fair enough, we should be all careful.

can u please direct us to his posts pertaining to your above conclusion/accusation?
i have not read all of his posts, but i never felt/thought that way. from what i know, he has researched way prior his opening of this thread. so what may seem to YOU as abrupt change is actually a much slower development.

i checked your recent posts... please correct me if im wrong, u seem to have a preponderance for negativity.
if u feel this thread has no purpose or use for YOU, then i dont see...

You are quite right about my negative attitude. There is much good stuff on FF. But there is also a lot of nonsense. Where I mingle is none of your business. On top of that the question was not directed at you.
  • #1,029
  • Mar 22, 2010 9:04am Mar 22, 2010 9:04am
Quoting spekkiefx
Scotty,

It appears from your posts you are learning a lot. My question is, has your bottom line actually gone up though.
Hey spek,

Now that's a fair question. If I was willing to day trade and burn out my retinas I could do a lot better. This might sound like another apparent contradiction, but I see entries everywhere, many of them turn into 15-30-whatever pip winners. Because I want to trade longer term I gain entries, and as you can all guess, I get knocked out a lot at BE. If I was a programmer I could solve that (trade entry to entry to entry ect), but so far I have not set foot on that road. I am doing manually what many who are in the know do via automation. I utilize micro based entries, and hope they grow into giant long term trades. I am long EU yet again, and just waiting. I was also long at the last lows and was in decent profit, price just fell on it's face and I'm out. Am I leaving a lot on the table by doing this? You're dang right I am, but the long term is where it's at in my opinion. I have this new outlook ever since my daughter came into the world, and now I have to think about what I'm asking her to pay for in regard to my actions. I want to be around more, and if I get glued to the computer and fully sucked into the short term then my attention will always be somewhere else. That's my long answer.
  • #1,030
  • Mar 22, 2010 9:24am Mar 22, 2010 9:24am
Quoting Scotty B
Hey spek,

Now that's a fair question. If I was willing to day trade and burn out my retinas I could do a lot better. This might sound like another apparent contradiction, but I see entries everywhere, many of them turn into 15-30-whatever pip winners.

I understand the time commitment needed by day trading but man once I get good at spotting 15-30 pip winners I'm gonna be spending 16 hours a day on my computer compounding my money super fast. I understand the appeal of long term trading but long term trading is 10x better when you have a great amount of capital and a nice chunk of cash in the bank to make you feel all warm and fuzzy on days where the market goes against you.

I guess my main point is once I get to the point where I see a great deal of 15-30 pip winners I'm gonna be taking as much money as I can from this game as fast as I can.

Money definitely isn't everything but I see this said mostly by people with a good chunk of it .
  • #1,031
  • Mar 22, 2010 9:28am Mar 22, 2010 9:28am
Quoting Deusomega
I understand the time commitment needed by day trading but man once I get good at spotting 15-30 pip winners I'm gonna be spending 16 hours a day on my computer compounding my money super fast. I understand the appeal of long term trading but long term trading is 10x better when you have a great amount of capital and a nice chunk of cash in the bank to make you feel all warm and fuzzy on days where the market goes against you.

I guess my main point is once I get to the point where I see a great deal of 15-30 pip winners I'm gonna be taking as much...
I agree with this, most working people with kids will not see them for 8-10 hours during the day, if you spend a few years building some good capital then you can go long term and look for a few % a month. Maybe you are at that stage though, anyway thats what I will be doing.

Chatzi
  • #1,032
  • Edited 12:10pm Mar 22, 2010 10:39am | Edited 12:10pm
Quoting Tenshi28
It's always about the dominant theme at the time.
It seems like this is the way fundies are being applied here in this thread, correct? Like DS's recent trade focusing on "the Greeks" being a main externality anticipated to influence order flow? Identifying a dominant theme, or as Steidlmayer called it - a Dominant Concern, vs. having a big overview seems more applicable to anticipating order flow. Thoughts?

Happy to see this great thread continuing - Thanks!
  • #1,033
  • Mar 22, 2010 10:59am Mar 22, 2010 10:59am
Quoting chatzi
I agree with this, most working people with kids will not see them for 8-10 hours during the day, if you spend a few years building some good capital then you can go long term and look for a few % a month. Maybe you are at that stage though, anyway thats what I will be doing.

Long term is not necessarily about few %. The key is to find a decent entry for your longer term view and the rest is about adding to winners. When you have a 1000pip goal in mind you might add positions couple of times at every retracement (if you can spot it) and have an outcome far greater than trading the noise out of mathematical probability.

That's what i'm after but lack a decent fundamental understanding to back it up.
  • #1,034
  • Mar 22, 2010 11:05am Mar 22, 2010 11:05am
I believe today's bounce is related to U.S. equities go higher because I saw this a little earlier:

[briefing.com] The other major news event came from overseas as Financial Times reported that German resistance for helping financially trouble Greece has dramatically escalated. In some rather contentious comments, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Greece doesn't need financial support and the EU leaders shouldn't make the question of aid for Greece the focus of their summit later this week. She further stated that Greece should try to solve its own debt problems and she warned about giving "false expectations" for a eurozone bail-out package for Greece. Major European markets, including Britain's FTSE, Germany's DAX, and France's CAC, traded with losses today...
  • #1,035
  • Mar 22, 2010 1:34pm Mar 22, 2010 1:34pm
Quoting FXSurfer
It seems like this is the way fundies are being applied here in this thread, correct? Like DS's recent trade focusing on "the Greeks" being a main externality anticipated to influence order flow? Identifying a dominant theme, or as Steidlmayer called it - a Dominant Concern, vs. having a big overview seems more applicable to anticipating order flow. Thoughts?

Happy to see this great thread continuing - Thanks!
That's basically what I meant, although you explained it much more clearly.

Incidentally, if I may add one thing about the EURUSD, constant remaks by Merkel in the same direction make me wonder if it's not only about not wanting to pay the bill for Greece, but also about pushing the euro down, as a weak euro clearly benefits the export-oriented German economy. This may sound a bit like conspiracy theory, but at the end of the day, it would make a lot of sense, the proverbial hitting two birds with one stone.
  • #1,036
  • Mar 22, 2010 1:35pm Mar 22, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting SunTrader
I believe today's bounce is related to U.S. equities go higher because I saw this a little earlier:
If we start to talk about fundies here.. I'm quite sure the bounce is because of the healhcare bill.
  • #1,037
  • Mar 22, 2010 4:37pm Mar 22, 2010 4:37pm
Meh I've read through this thread three times and I must say I think I am more confused than before on orderflow.


Dazed and confused haha.
  • #1,038
  • Mar 22, 2010 6:02pm Mar 22, 2010 6:02pm
I think what I am missing is figuring out a way to gauge open interest at each price level...
  • #1,039
  • Mar 22, 2010 6:20pm Mar 22, 2010 6:20pm
Quoting Deusomega
I think what I am missing is figuring out a way to gauge open interest at each price level...
2 (i agree with your 2 posts above)

before read the thread i was backtesting something. I don't have cofidence in this backtest anymore.
  • #1,040
  • Mar 22, 2010 7:09pm Mar 22, 2010 7:09pm
Quoting Deusomega
I think what I am missing is figuring out a way to gauge open interest at each price level...
Yeah..I've day dreamed many a times about having access to real-time streaming OI. In the scheme of things you don't need it at that level. To my knowledge, daily fx dot com has a service that updates it twice daily, but I've never looked into it.
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