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Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom

  • #1,001
  • Mar 21, 2010 7:25pm Mar 21, 2010 7:25pm
PinBars were mentioned a couple times last week.

I think this one was tradable tonight - along with it hitting a downtrend line (a familar theme lately), len reg channel drawn 3 days ago and into the important 50%/61.8% retracement zone for those of us of the TA variety traders:
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  • #1,002
  • Mar 21, 2010 7:46pm Mar 21, 2010 7:46pm
Quoting SunTrader
PinBars were mentioned a couple times last week.
I think this one was tradable tonight - along with it hitting a downtrend line (a familar theme lately), len reg channel drawn 3 days ago and into the important 50%/61.8% retracement zone for those of us of the TA variety traders:
That is one of my favorite TA setups as well, only I take that setup on 4HR or higher time frames. As much as I like TA and that setup, your post seems a little off topic since this is pretty much a discussion on order flow.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #1,003
  • Mar 21, 2010 7:49pm Mar 21, 2010 7:49pm
Quoting Darkstar
Your getting stuck in the if x then y mindset. There is no mathmatical correlation between the current price and the outcome probability priced in the market. Its far simpler then that... Where is price now and what is the sentiment now? They always line up. You don't need to know the exact probability, all you need to concern yourself with is if sentiment will be better or worse in the future.

It gets into the answer to another question you have, but generally I like to find situations where I have a really good idea about the eventual outcome...
Ahh...I see. Thanks for the explanation. So as an example, looking at EU, sentiment is obviously very bearish based on current prices. If good news comes out, current sentiment will be proven incorrect and those low prices even considered 'mispricing.' This explanation kind of makes me think of the market as an middle aged, pre menopause, bipolar woman who goes off no matter what is being said.
  • #1,004
  • Mar 21, 2010 8:05pm Mar 21, 2010 8:05pm
Quoting LasVahGoose
As much as I like TA and that setup, your post seems a little off topic since this is pretty much a discussion on order flow.
So then what do you call the various other mentions last week of pinbars - including I believe the thread author? I might be wrong about that one though since I admittedly did not go back and look.
  • #1,005
  • Mar 21, 2010 8:12pm Mar 21, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting SunTrader
PinBars were mentioned a couple times last week.

I think this one was tradable tonight - along with it hitting a downtrend line (a familar theme lately), len reg channel drawn 3 days ago and into the important 50%/61.8% retracement zone for those of us of the TA variety traders:
3 strikes working against you,

1st minor time of day, although some moves originate Asian Mondays most waiting for London, with retests of Fridays ending ranges.

Shorting into Fridays lows, prior days highs/lows often present hurdles until broken.

Immediate price action formed a base prior to the pullback, better to have a quicker pull with retrace rounding down, than rounding up.

Anything can happen, but not an A+ setup, imho. Ok to try to retest the bottom and pop it, but I'd bale on the first sign of support.

regards
  • #1,006
  • Mar 21, 2010 8:46pm Mar 21, 2010 8:46pm
Quoting SunTrader
So then what do you call the various other mentions last week of pinbars - including I believe the thread author? I might be wrong about that one though since I admittedly did not go back and look.

Like DS said, some setups cause orderflow and the patterns end up 'working.'
It's not the pattern or TA itself that makes it work, it's a matter of the majority buying into the pattern. Sometimes the patterns have nothing to do with reason for the orderflow whatsoever, even when the trade ends up working.
  • #1,007
  • Mar 21, 2010 9:24pm Mar 21, 2010 9:24pm
Quoting Scotty B
It's not the pattern or TA itself that makes it work, it's a matter of the majority buying into the pattern.
Well I'm not looking to belabor the point regarding TA but I thought, what the hell, orderflow/news and TA together - who knows maybe I might pick up a thing or two along the way here and throw it all together.

But if you say it's not the pattern, it's the majority buying the pattern. Then isn't that like when the news is positive and the majority believes so and buy into it and push the market higher?

Uh same difference if you ask me but since nobody did I guess I still don't get it.

Scotty, if it is time for me to slip away I will. I will respect your thread protocol as well as your opinions.
  • #1,008
  • Mar 21, 2010 9:32pm Mar 21, 2010 9:32pm
Quoting Fudomyo
I'm not sure if this applies or not, but I have a thought concerning your fundmental approach and the Fool's technical apporach that I'd like to share.
I did what now?

lol seriously, its just whack-a-mole to me. I see that little gopher move and BAM! - i whacks him. Works like a charm.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #1,009
  • Mar 21, 2010 9:58pm Mar 21, 2010 9:58pm
Quoting Fudomyo
lol...

there's an old saying, "a bad carpenter argues with his hammer"

as long as you're good with your hammer that's all that matters.
How was M&A, as cut-throat as i have read? After Investment banks M&A get all the best Finance and Economics grads. Flashy work.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #1,010
  • Mar 21, 2010 10:12pm Mar 21, 2010 10:12pm
Quoting SunTrader
Well I'm not looking to belabor the point regarding TA but I thought, what the hell, orderflow/news and TA together - who knows maybe I might pick up a thing or two along the way here and throw it all together.

But if you say it's not the pattern, it's the majority buying the pattern. Then isn't that like when the news is positive and the majority believes so and buy into it and push the market higher?

Uh same difference if you ask me but since nobody did I guess I still don't get it.

Scotty, if it is time for me to slip away I will. I will...
It's okay man, I understand the confusion. The problem is that DS and I are talking about slightly different orderflow 'types', mainly in regards to the side of time we are talking about.

What I've been presenting over the last 24 hours is entering the market using old data, even if it's only seconds old. DS is talking about probable orders to the right of the chart (future orders). The idea is to use both types of orderflow to trade.

Using old orderflow data will get you a pretty darn safe entry because it clearly shows you where demand is, and future orderflow will take you into profit (so we hope).

What DS is presenting is different than what I use to enter the market, although I thoroughly appreciate what he says. I'm not disagreeing with him, but I like entries that allow me to enter with good leverage and that immediately go into profit so I can set a stop at BE, even if it takes several tries to gain the entry that 'sticks.'

You are stuck on news and TA, things that require you to predict what will happen even @ time of entry. The prediction part, IMHO, is only half the equation, and it should be on the right side of it (as opposed to the left). [OBJECTIVE ENTRY < left...right> PREDICTION] You want to enter objectively and immediatey cover your ass, then you can afford to be subjective i.e. hopeful that the trade will be big.

If your TA is making you money, then stick with it. The truth is, you can free yourself for the most part in following any patterns and just wait for the money to come in.

This thread probably won't get into the crazy nitty gritty of all thats out there to use (regarding entries), but the value in this thread comes from knowing what orderflow trading is not.

Now I'm babbling, don't go anywhere Sun.
  • #1,011
  • Mar 21, 2010 10:46pm Mar 21, 2010 10:46pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
How was M&A, as cut-throat as i have read? After Investment banks M&A get all the best Finance and Economics grads. Flashy work.
Hey Leon,

Thanks for stopping by. How is school going?
  • #1,012
  • Mar 21, 2010 11:39pm Mar 21, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting Fudomyo
I'm not sure if this applies or not, but I have a thought concerning your fundmental approach and the Fool's technical approach that I'd like to share.
Brilliant stuff! Thanks for sharing that.
  • #1,013
  • Mar 21, 2010 11:48pm Mar 21, 2010 11:48pm
Quoting Scotty B
Hey Leon,

Thanks for stopping by. How is school going?
What I'm doing now is going great and I'm hitting all top grades, the problem is that I've decided that If I'm going to do a degree I want to do one where I will learn something that will be beneficial to me on a personal and practical level. So after thinking about it for a while I'm set on doing a more quantitative degree, so therefore, I need to spend another two years doing A-level Maths before uni. And while I'm doing that I may aswell pick up Economics, lol.

The course I'm doing now was supposed to be a quick fix to get in to Uni, one year doing Law, Sociology and English Language. But now It's going to take me a further 2 years (3 in total) just to get to university. Proper Ball breaker, the subjects I'm studying know don't interest me in the slightest. At least the next two years of Maths and Economics will be interesting.

Wow, thats the most I've written in a post in a while. Might take me 5-6 years to get to being able to read the equations in Lyons and Olsers papers but I'll get there.

Regards, Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #1,014
  • Mar 22, 2010 12:11am Mar 22, 2010 12:11am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
What I'm doing now is going great and I'm hitting all top grades, the problem is that I've decided that If I'm going to do a degree I want to do one where I will learn something that will be beneficial to me on a personal and practical level. So after thinking about it for a while I'm set on doing a more quantitative degree, so therefore, I need to spend another two years doing A-level Maths before uni. And while I'm doing that I may aswell pick up Economics, lol.

The course I'm doing now was supposed to be a quick fix to get in to Uni, one year...
Thats way cool man. Hard work always pays off. You'll pick up all sorts of things you're not even expecting along the way.

By University do you mean graduate school? I think we may use different terms with you being in the UK and me in the US.
  • #1,015
  • Mar 22, 2010 12:14am Mar 22, 2010 12:14am
Quoting Fudomyo
Any business where the stakes are high, including trading and finance you could call cut-throat to a certain degree, but I wouldn't necessarily single M&A out. I prefer the word shrewd.

The issue is, most people base their impressions on the ugly deals, hostile takeovers, and dismantling companies for their assets, when in fact the majority of deals are not hostile and the parties involved are usually satisfied with the results. ...but this makes boring press.
How did you find it? I'm not sure what the average working day is like in Mergers and Acquisitions, but maybe its a more chilled out option than working in investment banking? That's assuming I could ever keep up with the monsters that end up in IB.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #1,016
  • Mar 22, 2010 12:16am Mar 22, 2010 12:16am
Quoting Scotty B
Thats way cool man. Hard work always pays off. You'll pick up all sorts of things you're not even expecting along the way.

By University do you mean graduate school? I think we may use different terms with you being in the UK and me in the US.
I think so... Uni is where people go for a degree.

EDIT: They also go there to get very very pissed for a few years. Ringing any bells yet?
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #1,017
  • Mar 22, 2010 12:29am Mar 22, 2010 12:29am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
I think so... Uni is where people go for a degree.

EDIT: They also go there to get very very pissed for a few years. Ringing any bells yet?
I see. Good luck man.
  • #1,018
  • Mar 22, 2010 1:28am Mar 22, 2010 1:28am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
I think so... Uni is where people go for a degree.

EDIT: They also go there to get very very pissed for a few years. Ringing any bells yet?
Leon, in the USA pissed means annoyed. I think you need to rephrase this.
Gone to a better place
  • #1,019
  • Mar 22, 2010 2:56am Mar 22, 2010 2:56am
I still like to see a fundamental analysis from Darkstar which underpin his forecast about strong US economy later this year.
  • #1,020
  • Mar 22, 2010 3:34am Mar 22, 2010 3:34am
Quoting MartinFx
I still like to see a fundamental analysis from Darkstar which underpin his forecast about strong US economy later this year.
Hi MartinFX,

Most economies appear to be in the mire.

I have just extracted this from FT

Lipsky warns advanced economies face ‘acute’ debt challenge

Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Mar 22 09:49. John Lipsky, first deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund has warned that advanced economies face “acute” challenges in tackling high public debt, and unwinding existing stimulus measures will not come close to bringing deficits back to prudent levels, reports Bloomberg. All G7 countries, except Canada and Germany, will have debt-to-GDP ratios close to or exceeding 100 percent by 2014, Lipsky said in a speech on Sunday at the China Development Forum in Beijing.
This entry was posted by Izabella Kaminskaon Monday, March 22nd, 2010 at 9:49and is featured in The 6am Cut New York (22 Mar 2010).



I will probably get my wrist slapped by Scotty for posting off topic.


Regards,


BabeFX
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