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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #10,821
  • Mar 20, 2010 11:12pm Mar 20, 2010 11:12pm
Quoting Alexandra
Yes, honestly, this is a blended, view. I desprately want to short this market on a technical basis, seeing the LH, LH of recent weeks that many have advocated as the initial signs of an end to the bull run; however, fundamentally, I see the whole thing as simply a consolidative pause in a market that has made an initial up move and become overheated given the rate differentials and pressure for commodities, that being industrial demand versus initial hopes of financial stability. The longer term charts remain bullish in pattern; notably the high...
I don't think you are nutty, I respect your opinion and admire you very much but I think you often look longer term than me. Sometimes I am just looking for a swing and you are in for the long haul. Bonds and the stock market are very supportive of USDJPY at the moment and I don't see that changing for a bit and had it not been for the repatriation trade I think we would be printing a much higher price. When she gets out of that channel I am a buyer.

AUDUSD I really want to short too, I like the fib level and "measured move" level that is holding the pair - in other words this upswing is equal in pips to the last upswing, but I see bigger picture this could be a big bull flag.
If anyone knows gartley patterns (harmonic trading) it is actually a pretty nice daily bearish butterfly.
Funnymentally AUD is most affected by China news, its biggest trading partner. It has fallen hardest on news of China tightening. But in simplest funnymentals AUD is not a short because of interest rate differentials. Big real money earns interest being long AUD and has to pay interest to short it, so they have to have a really good reason to be short.
  • #10,822
  • Mar 20, 2010 11:17pm Mar 20, 2010 11:17pm
The real story?
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  • #10,823
  • Mar 21, 2010 12:01am Mar 21, 2010 12:01am
usd/jpy inverted h/s on daily.....?
Annoying Precision
  • #10,824
  • Mar 21, 2010 12:27am Mar 21, 2010 12:27am
Quoting elitejets
X100

This is the guy that taught me to trade daily and weekly candles and hauled my arse off a 15minute chart. I guess I couldn't really go.
See you all around.
Nicola
Hi Nicolahttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Good to hear from you again. Always thought that you belonged here and your input is very valued here.

Thanks for being back.

Happy trading http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gifhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gifhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck and Wife
  • #10,825
  • Mar 21, 2010 2:15am Mar 21, 2010 2:15am
Blackeagle and myself are compiling a “STRAT EDUCATION” document for our future developments and Blackeagle has done his bit by going from Post ? to Post 5,000.

As already mentioned, I am starting at Post 1 and working towards Post 5,000.

I am now at Post # 2010 and all I can tell you is that just reading it, even though most of it is mine, is very invigorating. I really don’t understand these people who say it is too long to read or there are too many non relevant posts – WAKE UP!

What you have in here is MASTERCARD – IT IS PRICELESS!

It is also very interesting to see that in just over a year, NOTHING IN TRADING PASR HAS CHANGED. Everything posted from Post # 1 to the last is still VALID and CURRENT.

Many posters have said this thread is GOLD, PURE GOLD and I just passed it up but as I go back and RE- READ it, I understand why they say this.

No, I’m not on an ego trip, never have been and never will be BUT my sincere advice to all, even those who are still with us today, is go back and re-read the thread EXCEPT this time, UNDERSTAND it with a year of PASR trading under your belt.

To quote the audience at the Apollo Theatre who first heard Bill Medley and Bobby Hatfield perform, MAN THIS IS RIGHTEOUS!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,826
  • Mar 21, 2010 3:17am Mar 21, 2010 3:17am
As I read through the various student posts, a common theme occurs to me.

It seems everyone sees the current move/trend, none of them are in it and are trying to find somewhere to POSITION THEMSELVES AGAINST IT.

Just in case I didn’t make myself clear, if there is a trend, everyone seemed to be looking for it to end and trade in the opposite direction.

This, to me, is far worse than top and bottom picking.

We need to go back to our train analogy and remember that a main line express travelling at 120mph pulling 40 or so carriages CANNOT turn on a dime and go in the opposite direction.

It FIRST has to slow down, it will probably STOP at the 1st red signal before approaching the station.

It will be given a green light to enter the station and it will SLOWLY approach the station until eventually coming to a STOP. At that point, most of the passengers will get off. Some will still be sleeping and will get off later when they realise the train has stopped and everyone else has left.

The train will still be in the station as the cleaners get on and off to clean the train. Then, depending on the station, the train will either continue in its original direction or it will be shunted backwards to the turntable.

The turntable may already be occupied so the train has to obey the red light and stay where it is until given the green light to enter the turntable.

The train goes onto the turntable but it is so long and heavy that the turntable has difficulty in moving. The StationMaster has to send for more railway workers to help turn the table.

Eventually the train gets turned around but by this time it has run out of coal which is needed to fire the boilers to make steam which turns the wheels (I grew up in the 1950s with steam engines – remember?). The train is then shunted to the Goods Loading Yard where it is loaded up with coal.

Now loaded with coal (fuel), the train has to make its way back to the station and the reverse direction bound platform to pick up passengers. It may yet again have to stop at a red light before it gets there. Once loaded with passengers, it slowly pulls out of the station ( a steam engine takes a long time to build up a head of steam to turn the wheels).

Gathering speed, it pulls out of the station only to stop at the red light controlling the movement of trains. Eventually it gets a green light and starts on its journey in its new reverse direction.

As it approaches the first main line station it is given a red light and told to enter the station. It enters the local station and unloads passengers who thought they got on the wrong train. At the same time, it loads more passengers than got off who see the train is heading in their direction.

Again the train slowly pulls out of the station and is directed onto the main line tracks where it gets up a full head of steam and speeds on its way.

It occasionally slows for orange signals and sometimes stops at red signals and pulls into local stations for a few passengers who have got train-sick and want to get off. Seeing the train in the station, many other passengers, seeing it is going to their destination, jump on.

This happens over and over for a good part of the journey until the train runs out of coal and has to pull into a Goods Refuelling Yard. While being refueled with coal, the cleaners decide to clean the train. Some passengers lose patience and cannot wait and get off. The train is then given the all clear to leave the refueling yard and slowly starts on its way but the catering manager realizes all the food and drink has been consumed and orders the engine driver to pull into the first food provisions yard to load up.

The engine driver knows the next food provisions yard is too far away on the journey forward and so goes back to the last station where he knows there is food. After going through the red and green signal scenario, the train pulls into the station to load up on food and drink.

At this point, many passengers who got on a while back and some who got on at the refueling yard are furious and decide to get off and catch another train. While these passengers are getting off, there are many passengers who missed getting on the train at the originating station and get on board here. They also call up all their friends and tell them the train is in the station and before you know it, the train is fully laden with passengers.

Now fully loaded with fuel and passengers, the train is able to build up a head of steam and get on its way to its final destination.

With no further red or orange signals, the train builds up to its full 120 mph speed and heads towards the destination station.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,827
  • Mar 21, 2010 4:07am Mar 21, 2010 4:07am
Quoting strat
Christopher, I’m very confused reading your posts and I haven’t had a drink!...
Strat, all my post to Alexandra was asking for was her view on the fundamental issues for AUDUSD as she had suggested that they might resolve the ambiguity in the charts at the moment. I am certainly not intending to trade 'fundamentally' - as I said in my post I don't want to take that road until I am secure on the PA side of things (and maybe not even then actually!).

I take your point that there should be no confusion when reading the AUDUSD charts, as Monthly and Weekly show no direct indication that the 'train is at the station'.

I also take your point that I may be trying to pick a top and get in early if the top of the range has been reached and the 'train is entering the final station'.

I always try to wait for confirmation on a change of direction. The problem that I have with waiting is that confirmation often comes in a great long Bull or Bear candle halfway to the next S or R line and I seem to have missed the moment because the R:R has become poor.

I know you will say that I can't control my emotions - Greed has got hold of me, but so far this month I have put on only 4 trades, one was not triggered and cancelled, one was stopped out and the other two are still running. This compares with the 15 I put on in January. So you see I am working on my tendency to over-trade!

Anyway, thanks for your comments - helpful and salutary as always Strat.

I won't enter a trade without confirmation on the Daily of what has been signalled on the Monthly and the Weekly first.
  • #10,828
  • Mar 21, 2010 4:20am Mar 21, 2010 4:20am
I notice that one or two people new to the thread have recently been asking about the 'Path of Learning'. Can anyone shed some light on this? I emailed Naws in late January and he replied after a week asking me to send my details (name, personal email, what country I was in etc.) I replied the same day (8th February) and I've heard nothing since. I sent my details again early last week but again heard nothing.

Can someone tell me 1) What is the 'Path of Learning' (because I thought it was just reading the thread - and understanding - from page 1, and I'm doing that already)? 2) Any idea why Naws is not responding?

Thanks, G
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #10,829
  • Mar 21, 2010 4:28am Mar 21, 2010 4:28am
Quoting strat
As I read through the various student posts, a common theme occurs to me....
This is great stuff! Helped my understanding a lot... Thanks Strat!
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #10,830
  • Mar 21, 2010 4:31am Mar 21, 2010 4:31am
What about this one?

Monthly: candle has reached top of the range. Has a long wick and no shadow - shooting star(ish)

Weekly: also at top of range with a doji

Daily: SS at top of range. Candle of 132 pips so needs to be a good Reward factor with that Risk and there is with next major S at 8260 giving 614 pips.

Wait for confirmation of Daily SS. Possible retrace to top of range at Weekly R of 9000 (good psycho number!). This retrace might give a more favourable entry anyway.

Just in case Strat says I'm still trying to pick tops and bottoms, this is speculative at the moment - or as those of you 'stateside' would say, a 'heads up'!
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  • #10,831
  • Mar 21, 2010 5:53am Mar 21, 2010 5:53am
Quoting strat

[font=Arial]Earlier this week I was on a plane sat across the aisle from a Chinese guy who was reading some trading magazine....
Had a good laugh reading this story. Thanks for posting it. This chinese guy may be a human but still has the intelligence of an ant. He'd have better odds going to the casino and playing black jack than going into trading.

Your original post has a lot of great advice for traders. I can tell you're someone who has a lot of experience and wisdom when it comes to trading.

Best advice I can give any trader is to avoid technical indicators at all costs. They will screw up your game and add years to the learning curve. Focus on naked price action. This is what tells you what is going on in real time.
  • #10,832
  • Mar 21, 2010 6:05am Mar 21, 2010 6:05am
Quoting strat
Max,...
Hello Strat, thanks for your answer.
Yes, like everyone here I have been through indicators and whistles and bells. Like you as well. What is wrong with that, as long as is a past experience and let behind us?
I'm now reading you. Why you are supposing I'm not doing it?
Maybe because someone has answered my question before? Ok then give me the time to get at it, it is a long thread!

Anyway, I'm asking an opinion on some basic stuff who everyone should consider. Nothing that has to do with greed or similar issues, just the basics mathematic rules on how to fund an account and preserve/conserve our capital. IMHO.


Now, let me introduce myself.
I have been trading for 3 years, done my mistakes, many indeed. Been through many "mentors", bought some black box. Overall, spent and lost "some dollars".
I've a very clear idea of what the risks in FX are, now, after many bad experiences.
I've been with Jacko for one year now, and I've been reading your thread since February.
My favourite thread was Steve's (NBT) on FF, which is based on S/R, but not for me (small timeframes...dangerous at least for me).


Thanks
Max
  • #10,833
  • Mar 21, 2010 6:21am Mar 21, 2010 6:21am
Quoting dorellino
Hello Strat, thanks for your answer.
Yes, like everyone here I have been through indicators and whistles and bells. Like you as well. What is wrong with that, as long as is a past experience and let behind us?
I'm now reading you. Why you are supposing I'm not doing it?
Maybe because someone has answered my question before? Ok then give me the time to get at it, it is a long thread!

Anyway, I'm asking an opinion on some basic stuff who everyone should consider. Nothing that has to do with greed or similar issues, just the basics mathematic...
You're focusing on the wrong aspects of trading Max. Account funding, leverage, etc are the last things about trading you should be thinking about.

Get a game plan. Like hockey, football, basketball, every team has a game plan to win. Once you have a good game plan, trade a demo account. Once you've proven yourself on a demo account, start a real account with $1000 and build your account up.
  • #10,834
  • Mar 21, 2010 6:44am Mar 21, 2010 6:44am
Quoting Lotuselanman
What about this one?

Monthly: candle has reached top of the range....
Just in case Strat says I'm still trying to pick tops and bottoms,

No, not at all - this is range trading which so far, has specified boundaries. This is totally different to trying to pick tops and bottoms of trends.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,835
  • Mar 21, 2010 6:53am Mar 21, 2010 6:53am
Quoting gododdin
I notice that one or two people new to the thread have recently been asking about the 'Path of Learning'....
You have it right - this whole thread IS The Path of Learning. Don't worry about Naws, he is on assignment in Thailand and probably using his energy for other things
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,836
  • Mar 21, 2010 7:03am Mar 21, 2010 7:03am
Quoting dorellino
Hello Strat, thanks for your answer.
Yes, like everyone here I have been through indicators and whistles and bells. Like you as well. What is wrong with that, as long as is a past experience and let behind us?
I'm now reading you. Why you are supposing I'm not doing it?
Maybe because someone has answered my question before? Ok then give me the time to get at it, it is a long thread!

Anyway, I'm asking an opinion on some basic stuff who everyone should consider. Nothing that has to do with greed or similar issues, just the basics mathematic rules...
“”done my mistakes””

Past tense? I wish I knew I had done mine!

I've been with Jacko for one year now,

So?……………………………??????????????????????????????????

I have been trading for 3 years

Anyway, I'm asking an opinion on some basic stuff who everyone should consider. Nothing that has to do with greed or similar issues, just the basics mathematic rules on how to fund an account and preserve/conserve our capital.

Something is seriously wrong here – these two sentences just don’t add up!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,837
  • Mar 21, 2010 7:12am Mar 21, 2010 7:12am
Quoting Alexandra
LOL - I think we said the same thing, except yours is in English; mine is in code. I am just afraid to admit that the monthly tells the whole story!

Perhaps a better way to say it - so what if one misses a reactionary move?? If the longer term charts do not support it, why do it? There will be another opportunity.
""mine is in code""

Ah ha! What's the name of that bloody decoding machine the Brits obtained in WWII that the Yanks made a movie of showing that they obtained it?

Whatever it is - we need it!

Where's Grimweasel when you need him most?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #10,838
  • Mar 21, 2010 7:26am Mar 21, 2010 7:26am
Enigma.
  • #10,839
  • Mar 21, 2010 7:33am Mar 21, 2010 7:33am
Quoting strat
""mine is in code""

Ah ha! What's the name of that bloody decoding machine the Brits obtained in WWII that the Yanks made a movie of showing that they obtained it?

Whatever it is - we need it!

Where's Grimweasel when you need him most?
Enigma at Bletchley Park.
  • #10,840
  • Mar 21, 2010 7:57am Mar 21, 2010 7:57am
Quoting Lotuselanman
What about this one?

Monthly: candle has reached top of the range. Has a long wick and no shadow - shooting star(ish)

Weekly: also at top of range with a doji

Daily: SS at top of range. Candle of 132 pips so needs to be a good Reward factor with that Risk and there is with next major S at 8260 giving 614 pips.

Wait for confirmation of Daily SS. Possible retrace to top of range at Weekly R of 9000 (good psycho number!). This retrace might give a more favourable entry anyway.

Just in case Strat says I'm still trying to pick tops...

I like these posts actually - Strat has identified the huge problem in which traders see the trend and try to use PA to justify an entry the other way. The biggest challenge in Forex is to "see" the new move relatively early and climb aboard. Anyone can see it after the fact. Using the monthly chart is a major feature, as you show on your last 2 series of charts.
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