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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,081
  • Mar 18, 2010 1:23pm Mar 18, 2010 1:23pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Hi
Nice to be back after some heavy work. Could not really trade during the day. Things have cooled down so I will be able to trade again. I took that tail on that the move down was a false move on a MACD round bottom.

Hi Phillp

Thanks and welcome back. Once I saw the signal, I looked my chart and I didn't really see anything on my chart. However I took the signal and entered the trade.

Just to show how the charts can be different for one broker to another.

Also, for those who are using MT4 platform, you can "plot" your trade on the chart once you've closed it. Just go the the "Account history" window on your platform, choose the correct history dates so that the closed trades are visible. Then click on that specific trade and drag it to the chart. Evidence of the trade will appear as shown on the chart below (I just put the price tags on it so that people can see the entry price and exit price of my trade).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20100317 5.gif Size: 13 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #22,082
  • Mar 18, 2010 2:39pm Mar 18, 2010 2:39pm
Quoting deforexit
Thank you Phillip, you are the man.
But, why did you enter against the 89?
I was expecting a breakout to the top after that tail that was also a higher low. I entered once the 89sma was breached by about 20pips anticipating move to the top trendline at least. When I saw the strong move I removed my profit target and raised it to 1.5345 anticipating a move to 1.5350 at least. There were strong divergence on the 1H and you can also see why my stop was at 1.4997. I used the low of the 1H green candle.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4H MACD.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4H MACD 1.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #22,083
  • Mar 18, 2010 6:50pm Mar 18, 2010 6:50pm
Thank you Phillip, superlative!!
  • #22,084
  • Mar 18, 2010 7:53pm Mar 18, 2010 7:53pm
A couple of things. First, Willem/Golfer - It's good to see you. I'm still using a lot of the 5 min stuff. I primarily use it for better entries on the 4hr, but occasionally a great set up will appear and I'll use the 5 min system.
Second, Phillip - I thought you would mention the price pattern that you took on your last trade. You have made quite a few pips on this pattern. I believe the last time you traded this was around Oct 10th. The 1st picture shows the price pattern to the trade you took a couple of days ago and the second is the one in Oct
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 031810-nt1.gif Size: 50 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 031810-nt2.gif Size: 56 KB
  • #22,085
  • Edited 8:30pm Mar 18, 2010 8:17pm | Edited 8:30pm
Quoting Morelands
Phillip - I thought you would mention the price pattern that you took on your last trade. You have made quite a few pips on this pattern. I believe the last time you traded this was around Oct 10th. The 1st picture shows the price pattern to the trade you took a couple of days ago and the second is the one in...
Good observation Raymond. Thanks for pointing it out.
  • #22,086
  • Edited 10:41pm Mar 19, 2010 10:28pm | Edited 10:41pm
Hello Phillip, hello Ira, Raymond and all...

I need an advice here... I've done cleaning my chart and seems that I found Master Phillip's famous 3 sisters. It's just that I'm not sure enough. I wonder what kind of candle formation is that in D1 chart? Can I assume that as a evening star as price seems founding resistance in my magenta line in D1? Should this is a correct 3 sisters then can I just short it by the time my broker open, since H4 chart seems doesn't have any signal candle yet. Or probably have one, but I just couldn't see? Need advice here...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-03-22 audusd (d1)-1.gif Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-03-22 audusd (h4)-2.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #22,087
  • Mar 20, 2010 11:20am Mar 20, 2010 11:20am
Quoting hammerhead
Hello Phillip, hello Ira, Raymond and all...

I need an advice here... I've done cleaning my chart and seems that I found Master Phillip's famous 3 sisters. It's just that I'm not sure enough. I wonder what kind of candle formation is that in D1 chart? Can I assume that as a evening star as price seems founding resistance in my magenta line in D1? Should this is a correct 3 sisters then can I just short it by the time my broker open, since H4 chart seems doesn't have any signal candle yet. Or probably have one, but I just couldn't see? Need advice...
I think you are right. It is a high probability trade, but you can still expect price to go up some 20-30 pips before coming back down. Right now the stoploss is more than 100 pips away....Wait for a good 5min chart entry....I will try to sell at 0.9178. Cheers...
  • #22,088
  • Edited 8:18pm Mar 20, 2010 7:39pm | Edited 8:18pm
Here's an analysis of the GBP. However, I can not just say I'm looking for a TC on the 4 hr without giving my global view on a daily basis. I will try not to stray to far off Phillip's 4 hr. The Daily is the 1st chart. I believe we are looking at a large A,B,C zigzag correction, but maybe the completion of a large 4th wave. With either situation I believe price on the 4 hr will test the previous low of 1.4785. There, that wasn't too bad hopefully. On the second chart notice the channel from which price needs to break. If price breaks that channel, the R:R is good, and the candle stick pattern is one that I like, I'll go short. That sure is a lot of ifs
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 032110-nt1.gif Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 032110-nt2.gif Size: 52 KB
  • #22,089
  • Mar 20, 2010 7:57pm Mar 20, 2010 7:57pm
Quoting hammerhead
Hello Phillip, hello Ira, Raymond and all...

I need an advice here... I've done cleaning my chart and seems that I found Master Phillip's famous 3 sisters. It's just that I'm not sure enough. I wonder what kind of candle formation is that in D1 chart? Can I assume that as a evening star as price seems founding resistance in my magenta line in D1? Should this is a correct 3 sisters then can I just short it by the time my broker open, since H4 chart seems doesn't have any signal candle yet. Or probably have one, but I just couldn't see? Need advice...
Here is my opinion and it is just that, an opinion. I can't tell you what to do or what not to do. We all have are philosophies and have different view points. Each person has to find there own way and a lot of finding your own way hurts. We all fall down/make bad trades. The difference, I believe, is who is willing to get back up. That also means not blowing your account and accepting (but not liking) that losing is part of learning and becoming a better trader. Well enough of that. I would not go short. Now Baco may be right and it may work out for you if you take the trade. The reason why is I don't see a reason to take it based on the daily. I think price is in a consolidation period b/t the 0 and 23% retracement and I don't see candle stick patterns to support going short. I particularly don't see an evening star. I do see your trendline and maybe it will hold. On the 4 hr price has found support on the 55MA 3 previous time and now has broken it. So based on the 4 hr it looks like a good trade. For me, it is just that everything doesn't match up to take the trade. If you do take it, I really do hope it works out.
  • #22,090
  • Mar 20, 2010 7:59pm Mar 20, 2010 7:59pm
Here are the picture for my explaination above
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 032110-nt1oftrade2.gif Size: 56 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 032110-nt2oftrade2.gif Size: 51 KB
  • #22,091
  • Mar 21, 2010 5:16am Mar 21, 2010 5:16am
Quoting hammerhead
Hello Phillip, hello Ira, Raymond and all...

I need an advice here... I've done cleaning my chart and seems that I found Master Phillip's famous 3 sisters. It's just that I'm not sure enough. I wonder what kind of candle formation is that in D1 chart? Can I assume that as a evening star as price seems founding resistance in my magenta line in D1? Should this is a correct 3 sisters then can I just short it by the time my broker open, since H4 chart seems doesn't have any signal candle yet. Or probably have one, but I just couldn't see? Need advice...
There was some daily divergence on the MACD as well to enhance a short decision on 19March2010
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf AudUsd 20March2010.pdf   56 KB | 706 downloads
File Type: zip AudUsd 20March2010.zip   811 KB | 538 downloads
  • #22,092
  • Mar 21, 2010 8:01am Mar 21, 2010 8:01am
Quoting Phillip Nel
There was some daily divergence on the MACD as well to enhance a short decision on 19March2010
Phil,
I can't open your .php file.
  • #22,093
  • Mar 21, 2010 8:14am Mar 21, 2010 8:14am
Quoting xeneric
Phil,
I can't open your .php file.
The files I dumped is an Acrobat .pdf file and a Winzip .zip file. There is no .php file. Try to rename it to .zip file and see what happens.
  • #22,094
  • Mar 21, 2010 5:34pm Mar 21, 2010 5:34pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
The files I dumped is an Acrobat .pdf file and a Winzip .zip file. There is no .php file. Try to rename it to .zip file and see what happens.
The .zip file is a .php file when opened. Should it be a .mp3 file ? I renamed it to .mp3 but then my mediaplayer still couldn't play it.
  • #22,095
  • Mar 22, 2010 1:24am Mar 22, 2010 1:24am
Quoting xeneric
The .zip file is a .php file when opened. Should it be a .mp3 file ? I renamed it to .mp3 but then my mediaplayer still couldn't play it.
the mp3 file is fine. probably you have problems on your side...
  • #22,096
  • Edited 2:03am Mar 22, 2010 1:50am | Edited 2:03am
Quoting xeneric
The .zip file is a .php file when opened. Should it be a .mp3 file ? I renamed it to .mp3 but then my mediaplayer still couldn't play it.

Funny, in the past I have been able to open all Phil's .zip files immediately and I can open all previous .zip files on this thread however with this file the only way that I could open it was to save the file as a .zip file on my desktop. So if any others are having difficulties, that's what you need to do. Very odd.
  • #22,097
  • Mar 22, 2010 2:13am Mar 22, 2010 2:13am
Quoting baco75
the mp3 file is fine. probably you have problems on your side...
Thanks. I am OK now.
  • #22,098
  • Mar 22, 2010 2:27am Mar 22, 2010 2:27am
Quoting Phillip Nel
There was some daily divergence on the MACD as well to enhance a short decision on 19March2010
Thanks for explaining my question Phil, thanks also to Raymond and baco75 who have already been commenting on my questions. The way Master Phillip explaining through his chart really gives me a new perspective to enter the market should this case happen again later in the future. I like the way Master Phillip explaining how to get an entry via pin bar in D1, and took the entry via retracement in 61.8 on H1 TF. I didn't take this trade this morning since by the time my broker open, the price already gap down which make my R:R to 89 SMA is not good enough. So I'll be just sitting tight, and let the market give me another signal to go short. Just like Master Phillip's proverb says: "LET THE MARKET COME TO YOU!!!" Thank you very much Phil...
  • #22,099
  • Mar 22, 2010 4:24pm Mar 22, 2010 4:24pm
I took a trade today, long the GBP. On the 4 hr chart price is in a channel/consolidation period. During these periods you can look for price to either break though the support line or for the support line to hold. In this case the support line held and the MACD shows a round bottom. I did not enter at that exact price, but it was around there. I'm out of the trade now, but price may go all the way up to the top of the channel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 032210.gif Size: 55 KB
  • #22,100
  • Mar 22, 2010 4:46pm Mar 22, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting Morelands
I took a trade today, long the GBP. On the 4 hr chart price is in a channel/consolidation period. During these periods you can look for price to either break though the support line or for the support line to hold. In this case the support line held and the MACD shows a round bottom. I did not enter at that exact price, but it was around there. I'm out of the trade now, but price may go all the way up to the top of the channel.
Great trade Raymond. Where did u enter and exit and why ?
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