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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #58,721
  • Mar 20, 2010 12:53pm Mar 20, 2010 12:53pm
Here are a couple of setups I am looking at, would love to get some of your thoughts on these. Looks like the first trouble area's on both are a bit close. On USDCAD, not sure if this is really a buob since the open is so high?

Thanks in advance for your help.

Jacob
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  • #58,722
  • Mar 20, 2010 1:19pm Mar 20, 2010 1:19pm
Quoting mbqb11
Direct quote from the site

P.S. Our personal experience tells us that even you have a perfect trading...
Sheesh...LOL

When I said I they do not recommend more than 1% I referred to the "kelly val" that is generated when you put numbers in the Java applet. I thought when I get 0.7 it means 0.7%, but seems like it is 70% lol.

Anyway I remember Joel posting a chart about ruin rate or something like that in the past, can't find it now. Could be interesting to understand how the math behind it.

I was risking 3% some time ago. But eventually I figured out I was rushing things. Went back to 0.5% a few weeks ago and I'm building it up slowly based on a plan I have came up with. maybe one of the best decisions I have made recently lol (thanks Aaron). It helps a lot mentally.
Regardless of the psychological related issues of risk tolerance tough, it would be interesting to learn about the mathematical aspects of risk and possibilities ratio. I know it is used many times with gambling games. Other things like darwdowns and compounding (both positive and negative) must be considered as well.

Ben
  • #58,723
  • Mar 20, 2010 1:48pm Mar 20, 2010 1:48pm
Quoting Jcp
Here are a couple of setups I am looking at, would love to get some of your thoughts on these. Looks like the first trouble area's on both are a bit close. On USDCAD, not sure if this is really a buob since the open is so high?

Thanks in advance for your help.

Jacob
hi Jacob

On your first trouble area i will be waiting for PA to go short, there is a TL that should work now as a resistance.
I'm not saying your plan is bad, but this is how i see this situation.
regards
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  • #58,724
  • Mar 20, 2010 3:14pm Mar 20, 2010 3:14pm
Hi everyone,

Been enjoying the thread. What do you think of the weekly pin on the USD/CHF?

Good points
In trend direction
On ascending trend line
At 50% retracment
Near long term reversal point

Bad
Tail shortish
there a large bearish triangle that might stop it flying

I will try it with a tightish stop
  • #58,725
  • Mar 20, 2010 3:47pm Mar 20, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting oromek
hi Jacob

On your first trouble area i will be waiting for PA to go short, there is a TL that should work now as a resistance.
I'm not saying your plan is bad, but this is how i see this situation.
regards
Have to agree...the BUOB has occurred at a swing low but there is no other confluence on my charts ...the trend is clearly down and the first trouble area is the former TL which you would expect some sort of reaction to as it is an obvious area many people will be looking at.

If a BUOB had been formed at a BRN i.e. further down over 1.000 i.e. if it was straddling 1.000 (having pierced through it) then my view might be different, but with that first trouble area so close...i.e. it is a poor %R (if you care about this sort of thing) then it is an easy pass for me.

In order to play a swing low trade which is essentially a change of trend or significant pullback trade I would want the location to be at a BRN or obvious PPZ (maybe fib area) with divergence i.e. as much confluence as possible...otherwise I just focus at looking at getting into the current trend on a pullback.
  • #58,726
  • Mar 20, 2010 6:15pm Mar 20, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting mbqb11
Have you peered over to the public side of forex factory and then times that by a huge number

Most people even with a good method won't follow it b/c they can't control their emotions(this is what translates into the fear and greed of the marketplaces). Look at the biggest failing funds of the world. Find something you are good at and confident at and exploit it.



Mike
Thank you for the answer and the advice Mike.

Humm So I guess I was wrong on two assumptions:
- money invested on Forex market by "little people" like me (non professionnal) is no match for "professional money". In fact looking at wiki, Forex daily turnover is about 1 trillion $ in spot transaction, that is 10 million lots (unless it is 1 trillion on long scale!), that is 10 millions people like me worldwide trading one lot every day. As some certainly trade more lots daily, not that many non-professional people needed to move the market...
- "professional traders" are professional (huh!) That is they should 1) use a proven working trading strategy 2) not be taken down by greed and fear. Otherwise that means they are not acting professionally, and should be fired, that is what happens with most jobs. I have no idea how it is in a bank or such thing, but so I guess finally even those people are feeling greed and fear?

Finally, "greed and fear" is just the same as "not confident in my strategy" isn't it? If you are sure to have a winning strategy on long term, why would you feel greed and fear otherwise. Or is it just an issue of money management (proven working strategy -> feel overconfident -> take more risk and put a bigger part of the capital on the table -> unluckily, just on time for the very few loosing trades with that strategy -> "insert new coins to continue the game")

Cheers
  • #58,727
  • Mar 20, 2010 7:17pm Mar 20, 2010 7:17pm
Hi Everyone,

Ok its time for me to share my last year with everyone. I got into Forex about a year ago. One of the first forums I came to was james16. I read the whole forum and started using the methods taught here. In my first 3 months here I turned $75 into $1600. I thought I had found my retirement plan, but then I got cocky. I left the forum and thought to myself, I can do this without following all the rules. What is money management anyway? I don't need a budget for this. HaHa !!! Boy was I ignorant. I lost every bit of it in about a week or two. So for months I kept putting in $100 bucks at a time and losing it. I knew I should have done demos, but I always felt like I was just 1 step away from getting the hang of it. Then the margin rules changed and that kept stopping me out. I almost quit forex for good, but I'm a firm believer in not letting something whip me. Finally I started reading again. Learning everything I could about forex. I finally read about money management. Man I wish I'd a paid more attention to that back then. After only risking 3% to 5% on all trades no matter how good the trade looked, I was at least starting to break even. I haven't had to add money since last year. I decided to come back here and start over. I'm reading the whole forum over again. I'm picking only what I think is the A trades. I was trading about 5 or more trades a day before. Now for the last 2 weeks I've only traded 7 times. My account is up 10% and I've only been stopped out once. I plan to stay here this time. I have learned alot while I was out on my own and I would'nt trade the experience I've gained for anything, but for anyone new to forex I highly recommend james16 forum. I appreciate Jim teaching and hanging in here for so long. Mike I always read your entry's because I know i'm going to learn something everytime you open your mouth. Well there it is, my last year. I know everyone goes through certain patterns and cycles before they get the hang of forex. I just wonder where I am in the cycle. I hope I'm there. I now know that small gains will add up and if I am consistent and persistent then maybe I can make some money at it. Man I love this. Thanks to everyone.
If your gunna be dumb, you've gotta be tuff.
  • #58,728
  • Mar 20, 2010 7:35pm Mar 20, 2010 7:35pm
Quoting neutro
The answer is that the futures traders expect the price in June for the YM contract to be lower than the price now.

But these are the expectations today, which can change tomorrow.
THANKS NEUTRO, FOR YOUR REPLY..
I SUPPOSE THE QUESTION I SHOULD HAVE ASK WAS , DID THE YM REACH A TOP OF 10819, AT 1500 HOURS, ON MARCH 19. AS SHOWN ON YMHO..
OR DID IT REACH 10755, AS SHOWN ON YMMO, AT THAT TIME.
REMEMBER , THIS IS HISTORICAL DATA.
DJ REACHED 10819.35 AT THAT TIME.
SO DOES IT MEAN THAT ALL YM CHART HISTORY IS VERY SUSPECT??
STILL
GRAHAM
  • #58,729
  • Mar 20, 2010 10:44pm Mar 20, 2010 10:44pm
Quoting benji533
But imo you should remember one important thing. A winner trade doesn't mean you are a successful trader - exactly like a loser trade doesn't make you a loser trader. Losing and winning is market's nature and has zero reflation of who you are as a trader in terms of success.
Fact is a complete newbie can be lucky and get his 10 first trades winners. But once his first loser will come, all his mental world will crash on him. The real success needs to come from inside you in a form of attitude and way of thinking. The outside factors like winners...
That's good benji, trader have to find the way to trade responsibility, your post is really valuable!
Back to the beginning ... demo
  • #58,730
  • Mar 20, 2010 10:48pm Mar 20, 2010 10:48pm
Quoting mbqb11
Direct quote from the site

P.S. Our personal experience tells us that even you have a perfect trading...
You're right Mike, for me 2% should be the worst case! when you get a full loss bar, but if you have plan to cut and reduce your risk, the losses are often smaller...

for 25-30% i can't imagine how i stand if i get a loss... may be i'm a weak and cowards, but George Soros can do it, is it right?
Back to the beginning ... demo
  • #58,731
  • Mar 20, 2010 11:08pm Mar 20, 2010 11:08pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
The upcoming month is going to be pretty trading-intense for me... I'll keep you posted
Huh, you're doing thing good huh good for you, good for you, can't take your money can't take your money

Nice weekend Dan!
Back to the beginning ... demo
  • #58,732
  • Mar 20, 2010 11:42pm Mar 20, 2010 11:42pm
Quoting Jcp
Here are a couple of setups I am looking at, would love to get some of your thoughts on these. Looks like the first trouble area's on both are a bit close. On USDCAD, not sure if this is really a buob since the open is so high?

Thanks in advance for your help.

Jacob
USDCAD : Although its a bullish outside bar (not text book type), its previous bar is also bullish. so its not a bullish engulfing bar. if the previous bar was bearish , then this bar would have been a bullish engulfing bar. also the open is little high. the body must engulf the body. it tail, wick also engulf, then its a perfect setup. this coupled with close trouble area, its a pass for me.

i may be wrong, i am also learning all these things ...
  • #58,733
  • Mar 21, 2010 12:38am Mar 21, 2010 12:38am
Quoting markjuan1
Hi Everyone,

Ok its time for me to share my last year with everyone. I got into Forex about a year ago. One of the first forums I came to was james16. I read the whole forum and started using the methods taught here. In my first 3 months here I turned $75 into $1600. I thought I had found my retirement plan, but then I got cocky. I left the forum and thought to myself, I can do this without following all the rules. What is money management anyway? I don't need a budget for this....
This is what makes it so freaking awesome
  • #58,734
  • Mar 21, 2010 12:50am Mar 21, 2010 12:50am
Quoting benji533
Anyway I remember Joel posting a chart about ruin rate or something like that in the past, can't find it now. Could be interesting to understand how the math behind it.
I'm way too hungover to think about statisitcs right now, but basically for a broad spread of mean return/standard deviation profiles (which would probably incorporate most people here), 2% is the maximum percentage of your account that you can stake on each trade and keep your risk of ruin (ie, having a zero account and therefore being unable to recoup your losses) to a negligible level (from memory, under 0.5% chance).

Anyhoo, it was this post.

Quoting joelcf
I made a quick couple of charts... hopefully, they help explain why 2%...
the thing is, these are all generalisations. The 'ideal' % will vary from system to system, trader to trader, market to market. I think maybe that's why the 2% rule got picked up and promulgated - its easier to give people a set numer than to make them think about where it comes from and why
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #58,735
  • Mar 21, 2010 12:51am Mar 21, 2010 12:51am
Quoting markjuan1
Hi Everyone,

Ok its time for me to share my last year with everyone. I got into Forex about a year ago. One of the first forums I came to was james16. I read the whole forum and started using the methods taught here. In my first 3 months here I turned $75 into $1600. I thought I had found my retirement plan, but then I got cocky. I left the forum and thought to myself, I can do this without following all the rules. What is money management anyway? I don't need a budget for this....
I just love this post. Thanks Mark!

So you were able to turn 75$ to 1600$ within 3 months based on something you have just learned? I guess with a proper MM the numbers were different but that's isn't the point. You have been able to make money consistently during 3 month cause you were highly confident which lead to a carefree mind. You didn't have fear, anger, hesitation etc cause there was no reason for it. But then your steady raising equity suddenly fell sharply.

Well from what you have wrote it sound like euphoria.
In 1967 the Israeli army knew they are going to be attacked by their surrounding neighbors. With a proper plan, dream passion, desire and effective plan of executing their strategy they have overpowered Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and Arab-Saudia all alone by themselves within only 6 days. No one ever thought this kind of thing is ever possible. Everyone in Israel was sure it's going to be a complete suicide. But their passion made the impossible to become true. After the war the Israeli leaders were sure they are undefeated, most powerful army in the east. Since then the Israeli army is considered one of the strongest is the world even tough it is almost the smallest in terms of population.
Guess what, only 6 years latter we have eat crap in the "Yom Kippur" war because our leaders ignored all the military secret information they have received about the plans of our neighbors to attack. We new they are just next to us waiting for the best moment, but no one even cared. It was a complete shock and we almost lost everything including our country during the next 18 days of war. Finally we gained control, but the damage of property and lives was unacceptable.

Yes, euphoria is one of the nastiest emotions you can ever have. It feels great, and that's exactly the problem with it. When you feel so over confident and proud about yourself you have no reason to care about the possible dangers. Doesn't matter if it's a war or it's trading. You will seek to learn psychology when you are stuck. But you will never care about this "boring crap" when you are high up there. Then it will hit you the hardest. It will take all your steady raising equity and smash it in one shot. Many traders are going cycles by creating a nicely steady raising equity and then their is a sharp sudden fall. It repeat itself over and over and over. It's because they know how to trade consistently profitable. It really isn't hard, trading is very simple (you have managed to do so in your fist three month!). But then the other side of mind takes over and your emotions ruin you. Not because the market have changed doing what it have done all the time - but because you mind and attitude have chanced. You do not need to change your methodology of reading the market, or learn more about fundamental or whatever. The problem is in your head. The success is in you. Not in the market. And the technical method isn't the problem most of the time cause learning patterns is like learning every simple profession in real life. But not way of thinking.

Ben
  • #58,736
  • Mar 21, 2010 12:52am Mar 21, 2010 12:52am
Quoting joelcf
I'm way too hungover to think about statisitcs right now, but basically for a broad spread of mean return/standard deviation profiles (which would probably incorporate most people here), 2% is the maximum percentage of your account that you can stake on each trade and keep your risk of ruin (ie, having a zero account and therefore being unable to recoup your losses) to a negligible level (from memory, under 0.5% chance).

Anyhoo, it was this post.
Thanks Joel
  • #58,737
  • Mar 21, 2010 3:41am Mar 21, 2010 3:41am
Quoting markjuan1
Hi Everyone,
Ok its time for me to share my last year with everyone. I got into Forex about a year ago.....
An inspirational post!
reminds me of my experience a few years back.

i turned about $80-150 into $1400 in 1month. i havent replicated that feat but the point is, i was able to do that without S/R knowledge & with limited trading experience.
things have changed (i became a LOT more patient etc)... i cannot imagine what i can achieve in the future, now that i am equipped with S/R knowledge thanks mainly to this thread.
personally, S/R was the missing puzzle that answered many of my questions. (im sure many of your questions too)

Hopefully i can share my success story within 1-2years.
  • #58,738
  • Mar 21, 2010 5:17am Mar 21, 2010 5:17am
hi guys,

I started with forex about 2years ago. I came to j16 last year, read everything and started practising on a demo account, got some results so I went live, got margin call on first account of $2000. I got upset, invested more and lost again, typical newbie thinking "I have to get my money back" sort of thing and invested $1000 again and lost. This jan after some break, I went live again, with $1000 and in 12 days I had $9200 account, but this was also without understanding exactly what the hell was PA telling me, I had been very lucky during that time, so I became overconfident, and lost in the month of feb everything. So I said, ok I had done it before, will do it better, invested $1000 again and was left with $66 in my account. At that point I came back to j16 thread, started reading from the begining, and you know what, I traded only thrice last wk and taking only the best setups, and from $66 went to $245 in a wk. Now my target is not to make money, my main aim is to take only the best setups only on one pair.

Many of you will think that I had been stupid to invest that much amount, but to tell you the truth, that amount infact was from the sum I had left aside for educating me about forex.

If anyone thinks this is a fairy tale, I can send the statement from my real account

Guys this thing works, the only thing is you have to be patient. Some things don't come simply by reading but by experiencing.

Kind regards
MKashif
  • #58,739
  • Mar 21, 2010 7:08am Mar 21, 2010 7:08am
Quoting mkashifk
Now my target is not to make money, my main aim is to take only the best setups
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #58,740
  • Mar 21, 2010 7:10am Mar 21, 2010 7:10am
Quoting benji533
Sheesh...LOL

When I said I they do not recommend more than 1% I referred to the "kelly val" that is generated when you put numbers in the Java applet. I thought when I get 0.7 it means 0.7%, but seems like it is 70% lol.

Anyway I remember Joel posting a chart about ruin rate or something like that in the past, can't find it now. Could be interesting to understand how the math behind it.

I was risking 3% some time ago. But eventually I figured out I was rushing things. Went back to 0.5% a few weeks ago and I'm building it up slowly based on...
Here is the link of the post that Chatzi made about a month ago. He posted a drawdown spreadsheet. I found it very interesting it shows you how fast can you lose your account if you dont have a proper MM.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=55234
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